海角大神

Spain鈥檚 15-M movement, the first to occupy public spaces in peaceful protest against leaders鈥� handling of the global economic crisis, marks its first anniversary today. It has broad public support, but there is little evidence of growing coherence among its members, who share a desire for reform but differ on what it should look like.

Few thought the Indignados, or the Spanish Revolution, would survive, much less spread from the US and Europe to Israel and Australia. But like all its global offshoots, it has been unable to channel protest into influence on policymaking.聽Spain鈥檚 conservative government has dismissed the group and tried labeling it as a political proxy for the left.

However the Indignados, while still refusing to take up any political agenda, appear to be adopting an increasingly assertive role, with the worst economic crisis in Spain's history as a powerful rallying call. The 15-M came back with force last weekend with more than 100,000 people gathered in dozens of Spanish cities. Smaller daily protests continued through yesterday. There were minor violent clashes and several injuries and arrests as police prevented more tent cities from rising.

In Madrid鈥檚 emblematic Puerta del Sol, protesters yelled, 鈥淧eople, wake up, the siesta is over.鈥� Last night, thousands gathered to bang pots.

鈥淲e were surprised by its survival and its ability to still fill up plazas,鈥� says Ferm铆n Bouza, sociology professor and public opinion expert in the Universidad Complutense de Madrid. 鈥淚t made a forceful showing.鈥�

鈥淏ut without a structure, it can鈥檛 survive. There鈥檚 lots of people, but without any visible leadership or agenda. Their biggest challenge is their self-imposed contradictions,鈥� Dr. Bouza adds. 鈥淭hey need more coordination to survive, but they don鈥檛 want to coordinate further. The more they grow, the weaker they are because accountability is harder to manage.鈥�

A mixed anniversary

The movement is named after May 15, when police forcefully removed the first group of protesters who had set up more than a dozen tents in Puerta del Sol under the slogan 鈥淭hey don鈥檛 represent us.鈥�

It started off as a youth initiative, but a year later is increasingly backed by older crowds, retirees, labor union members, and a myriad of disenfranchised movements. While the group refuses any political alliances, it mostly espouses left-leaning ideas, albeit ones supported by many in the center.

Spain is already immersed in a painful double-dip recession, one that will last at least for another couple of years, most analysts agree. Unemployment, already at 23 percent, keeps rising; severe austerity keeps crippling the welfare state; and the future is altogether uncertain.

The 15-M movement ultimately understood it could not influence short-term decisions, as it lacked the numbers or organization. It doesn鈥檛 even have visible leaders. Everyone has the same vote and voice, in a form of direct democracy that is nonetheless stymied in promoting direct change.

The movement wants more political and financial accountability, but members have failed to agree on any specific demands, other than rejecting banks bailouts while defending the welfare state and demanding more job creation, public housing, and better wages.

More than 35 percent of Spaniards say they feel represented by the 15-M, against almost 58 percent who don鈥檛, although almost half agree the movement has had a positive effect by stirring up debate, according to a poll published this week by the newspaper La Raz贸n.

Its future is entirely uncertain, its own members admit. Jos茅 Luis Saiz, a 36-year old salesman, was deeply involved last year in publishing a newsletter of the 15-M. In interviews then, he was inspired and optimistic.

鈥淏ut I got fed up with everyone trying to do their thing. Too many claiming power but no real leadership. I don鈥檛 have a lot of time, and things at the national level didn鈥檛 really accomplish much. We decentralized as a result, and at the neighborhood level we are getting a lot more done,鈥� says Mr. Saiz.

鈥淭he 15-M is like a groundhog, always working under the radar. And it鈥檚 becoming more political now. At the beginning, it was a lot of people with ideas, but now we are focusing on specific ideas.鈥�

Analysts largely agree that the 15-M is limited by its own contradictions. 鈥淭hroughout this year, the movement has moved forward in their process of self-organization, especially in the neighborhoods and squares. It鈥檚 hard to predict the future, but taking into account that the economic crisis, I think the movement will survive,鈥� says Jaime Pastor, political science professor at UNED, a university here, and a specialist in mass movements.

鈥淚t won鈥檛 be alone, either, and its autonomy is not guaranteed. But it will have to improve on decisionmaking and coordination, and still achieve some partial victories,鈥� Dr. Pastor says.

He points to housing evictions, dozens of which have been delayed or cancelled under pressure from peaceful sit-ins. 鈥淭hey haven鈥檛 achieved anything concrete on evictions, but the 15-M is responsible for putting the issue on the political agenda.鈥�

Dr. Bouza sees no alternative for the 15-M but to seek a bigger political role. 鈥淚t鈥檚 impossible to deny association to the left and right. That balance is absurd, especially because most of their supporters come from the left.鈥�

鈥淥n first glance, their future is not very good,鈥� Bouza adds. 鈥淭hat doesn鈥檛 mean they won鈥檛 find a way to succeed. The movement has already influenced public opinion and galvanized聽 opposition against the handling of the crisis, and against corruption. But I can鈥檛 see the 15-M changing governments or voter intention.鈥�