Trump tried to end the Cambodia-Thailand conflict. It may push Bangkok toward China.
| Sisaket, Thailand
U.S. President Donald Trump may have scored big in his quest to position himself as a global peacemaker with the United Nations voting to back his peace plan in Gaza. But many of the other seven wars he says he鈥檚 resolved are now facing setbacks 鈥� including here along the Cambodia-Thailand border.
Peace talks have deteriorated after a land mine wounded four Thai soldiers and sparked a new wave of fighting in the ongoing border conflict, which stems from long-simmering territorial disputes between the neighboring kingdoms. Thailand and Cambodia signed a comprehensive ceasefire last month, in a ceremony attended by Mr. Trump.
The breakdown in this fragile peace the Trump administration helped forge 鈥� tied in part to U.S. trade deals 鈥� comes as Bangkok is turning closer to China, threatening U.S. influence in the region.
Why We Wrote This
The Trump administration helped stem fighting between Thailand and Cambodia, in part by making trade negotiations contingent on peace. Now the ceasefire is falling apart 鈥� and possibly pushing Bangkok closer to China.
Beijing and Washington both have 鈥渧ital roles to play鈥� in securing peace between Cambodia and Thailand, says Donald Greenlees, senior advisor to Asialink at the University of Melbourne.
鈥淐hina does not want to see a destabilized Mekong region on its doorstep,鈥� he says, 鈥渁nd Trump does not want to be embarrassed by failed policies as the peace president.鈥�
Mood at the border
In Thailand鈥檚 Sisaket province, where the mine detonated last week, many express pride in the country鈥檚 military, but also yearn for a return to stability.
鈥淚 just want more business and the border reopened,鈥� says Nok Supalaitri, who runs a frogs and fish stand in Sisaket town鈥檚 night market. She splashes her tub of live frogs with fresh water from a hose as she prepares to close up shop for the evening.
Cambodia and Thailand made an initial truce this summer, after the United States threatened to halt tariff negotiations unless both sides came to an agreement. When the parties formalized the ceasefire at the Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN) summit last month, critics questioned whether economic coercion could lead to lasting peace.
Then the mine detonated. The Thai military accused Cambodia of laying new explosives 鈥� accusations Phnom Penh denies 鈥� and Thailand鈥檚 Prime Minister Anutin Charnvirakul declared the peace plan void. He struck a defiant tone when asked about the potential consequences for U.S. trade: 鈥淎s for trade and tariffs negotiations, I no longer care,鈥� he told reporters Nov. 12.
The current state of U.S.-Thailand trade negotiations is unclear. Over the weekend, Mr. Trump told reporters that he called Mr. Anutin and his counterpart in Cambodia, and saved the ceasefire using 鈥渢he threat of tariffs.鈥� Thailand鈥檚 Prime Minister has said U.S. trade negotiations will proceed separately from security negotiations, and maintains a hard-line stance on Cambodia.
鈥淚 am not too worried [about Trump鈥檚 tariffs], because we have multiple markets to sell to,鈥� says Suriwong 鈥淵ok鈥� Samsit, who manages a hotel in Sisaket province. 鈥淥ur government can wait. We can wait.鈥�
One of those markets could be China.
China alliance deepens
China has been Thailand鈥檚 largest trading partner for more than a decade, and is an increasingly important source of tourism and military equipment for Bangkok.
Last week, as Cambodia and Thailand exchanged fire, Thailand鈥檚 King Maha Vajiralongkorn聽made a historic trip to Beijing to meet with Chinese leader Xi Jinping and commemorate 50 years of diplomatic ties between their nations. He is the first reigning monarch to visit China, which presented itself as a reliable partner, looking to boost economic cooperation and regional stability.
Barbershop owner Lulong Nangsingbusong, who also goes by 鈥淐harlie,鈥澛爓ould prefer to see Bangkok strengthen ties with its historic ally, the U.S. Harkening back to U.S. troops鈥� presence in the region during the Vietnam War, he says Americans should remember their history.
鈥淎merica and Thailand are old friends to fight communism. Someone should tell that to Trump,鈥� he adds. 鈥淲e don鈥檛 want a communist problem again.鈥�
However, Thailand has been tilting toward Beijing over the past two decades, says Chulalongkorn University international relations expert Thitinan Pongsudhirak, as the country leans more conservative and elites see economic opportunity in China. Recent political upheaval in Bangkok has also ceded more influence to the country鈥檚 already powerful military.
Back in October, signing the peace accord 鈥渨as expedient in order to get Trump to participate in the ASEAN-related summits and to finalize trade and tariff deals,鈥� says Dr. Pongsudhirak. But frustrations with U.S. trade policy, a growing reliance on China, and the new government鈥檚 deference to the military all made it easier to pull out of the deal.
鈥淎t stake is Thailand鈥檚 longer term geostrategic balance,鈥� says Dr. Pongsudhirak 鈥� as is Mr. Trump鈥檚 plan to secure a Nobel Prize.
While Thailand鈥檚 domestic politics have certainly complicated the president鈥檚 efforts to bring peace to the region, it鈥檚 not the only U.S. peace plan on the rocks. In all of the eight conflicts Mr. Trump claims to have solved, peace remains tenuous at best.
Months after India and Pakistan agreed to a ceasefire that the Trump administration took credit for, bombings in Delhi and Islamabad have set the archrivals on edge. In the Democratic Republic of Congo, fighting between militia groups never stopped. Gaza has continued to see bloodshed, and despite the U.N. voting to support America鈥檚 peace plan, concerns over its implementation loom.
