In Pakistan, one embattled ex-PM gets bail, the other doesn鈥檛. Why?
| Islamabad
Former prime minister of Pakistan Nawaz Sharif touched down in Lahore on Saturday, after almost four years of self-imposed exile in London.聽
Mr. Sharif 鈥� who has thrice been elected prime minister and thrice removed from office before completing his term 鈥� left Pakistan in November 2019 to seek treatment for an autoimmune disorder, having been granted bail in two corruption cases that he has always maintained were politically motivated. With Pakistani politics in a state of limbo, the controversial figure has returned to spearhead his party鈥檚 campaign in the forthcoming general election.聽
On Saturday evening, Mr. Sharif addressed a large gathering of triumphant supporters in Lahore and promised to return Pakistan to its 鈥渇ormer glory.鈥� Political activist Gul Bukhari describes his return as a vindication. 鈥淵ou know all the generals and judges who collaborated to throw him out? It鈥檚 comeuppance for them,鈥� she says.
Why We Wrote This
In Pakistan, two former prime ministers, both accused of corruption, are receiving different treatment from authorities. What does fairness look like in a case with so many missteps and injustices?
Yet authorities鈥� relatively warm welcome of the ex-PM highlights deeper issues of fairness and integrity in Pakistan鈥檚 governance. Last week, Mr. Sharif was granted protective bail until Oct. 24, despite the fact that he had been sentenced to ten years imprisonment under Pakistan鈥檚 anti-corruption laws in July 2018. Meanwhile, Mr. Sharif鈥檚 main political rival, Imran Khan, remains incarcerated as authorities investigate his handling of state secrets. That dichotomy has many in Pakistan criticizing the country鈥檚 politicking military, with journalist Taha Siddiqui saying that the army鈥檚 interference has made a mockery of Pakistan鈥檚 political and judicial systems.聽
鈥淭he message is: if you are friends with the military in charge, you can do politics in the country and the cases against you will dissipate into thin air,鈥� he says. 鈥淏ut if you disturb the military鈥檚 hegemony, you will rot in jail like Khan is doing, or in exile like Sharif did when he was a military critic.鈥�
Caught in old cycles
Throughout its 76-year history, Pakistan has seen long periods of direct military rule. Mr. Sharif鈥檚 second government was deposed in a military coup in 1999, and his most recent term in office was marred by constant squabbles with the top brass of the armed forces.聽
Indeed, when Mr. Sharif was convicted of corruption in the run up to the 2018 general election, many saw his legal troubles as punishment for falling out with the country鈥檚 influential military, which disagreed, among other things, with Mr. Sharif鈥檚 desire to normalize relations with India.
Now, observers say he鈥檚 being drafted in as a foil to Mr. Khan, the cricketer-turned-politician who was initially promoted by the army, but eventually removed from office by a military-sponsored vote of no-confidence in April 2022. Mr. Khan and members of his PTI party face mounting legal challenges which will likely bar them from meaningfully participating in the next election.
鈥淭he courts have bent over backwards to give him [Mr. Sharif] relief in a couple of days before his arrival,鈥� says Sayed Zulfiqar Bukhari, who served as a special assistant in Mr. Khan鈥檚 cabinet, 鈥渨hereas Imran Khan and all of us that have frivolous charges against us can鈥檛 even get a date down on the register of the court. 鈥� In one way it鈥檚 laughable, really, what鈥檚 happening, but in another way we all predicted that this was part of the bigger plan.鈥�
In November 2022, the outgoing chief of Pakistan鈥檚 army, Gen. Qamar Javed Bajwa, vowed that the institution would confine itself to its constitutional role moving forward. Many view the circumstances surrounding Mr. Sharif鈥檚 return as further evidence that this promise is not being kept.聽
Rather, political commentator Cyril Almeida claims that Pakistan has returned to its 鈥渙ldest politics.鈥�
鈥淭he generals fall out with their latest prot茅g茅 and then have to hurriedly draft in an older prot茅g茅 鈥� to run the country,鈥� he says. 鈥淚t鈥檚 tiresome and never works, because the only rule is to never let whoever is the most popular politician run the country lest he or she get ideas about actually being in charge.鈥�
A new political landscape
Familiar military meddling notwithstanding, experts note that the Pakistan Mr. Sharif left in 2019 is markedly different from the one he returned to this weekend.聽
The Pakistan Muslim League-Nawaz government, which Mr. Sharif headed from 2013 until his disqualification in 2017, oversaw a period of relative economic stability with single-digit inflation and growth rates that compared favorably to those achieved by its predecessor. After Mr. Khan fell out with the army, his government was replaced in 2022 by a coalition led by Mr. Sharif鈥檚 younger brother, Shehbaz Sharif, who presided over a sixteen-month economic meltdown. Annual inflation in 2022 was measured at just under 20% while the Pakistani rupee plummeted to as low as 306 against the U.S. dollar. Pakistan currently has a caretaker government as it awaits the next general election, slated for no later than February 2024.聽
鈥淗e [Mr. Sharif] comes back with the difficult task of uniting his party at a moment when it faces fissures and energizing his support base against the backdrop of a terrible economic crisis that has hit the public hard,鈥� says Michael Kugelman, the director of the South Asia Institute at the Wilson Center in Washington. 鈥淏ut with the military now having his back, there鈥檚 one less thing 鈥� one less big thing 鈥� for him and his party to worry about.鈥�
Nor, it seems, will he have to worry about Mr. Khan. The government of Mr. Sharif鈥檚 younger brother, which suffered from accusations of nepotism throughout, found it difficult to counter the political messaging of Mr. Khan, who went on a nationwide speaking tour shortly after his removal and doubled down on his accusation that he had been removed by a 鈥済ang of crooks鈥� in cahoots with the U.S.
It was a message that resonated more and more as the country鈥檚 economic crisis deepened and propelled Mr. Khan鈥檚 party, the Pakistan Tehreek-e-Insaaf (PTI), to a string of by-election victories in both the National Assembly and the large province of Punjab. However, in the aftermath of the May 9 riots 鈥� when a number of PTI supporters laid siege to military installations in response to Mr. Khan鈥檚 arrest 鈥� the military unleashed a brutal crackdown against Mr. Khan鈥檚 party and launched a full-throttle campaign to remove Mr. Khan from the political arena.
鈥淭he biggest argument in support of the idea that the election is already rigged, no matter what happens on Election Day, is the scale of the broader crackdown on Khan鈥檚 party,鈥� says Mr. Kugelman. 鈥淟eaders jailed or forced to leave politics, arrests and intimidation of party supporters, bans on media coverage of Khan and his party, and so on. The election campaign may have started, but with the PTI cut down to size and hollowed out, there鈥檚 little chance of a level playing field.鈥�
Even if Mr. Sharif manages to revive his party鈥檚 fortunes and form the next government, his mandate to govern will be limited by the illegitimacy of such an election.聽
鈥淚mran鈥檚 term was dominated by the Nawaz question, Nawaz鈥檚 likely fourth term will be dominated by the Imran question,鈥� says Mr. Almeida, the political commentator. 鈥淧akistan seems destined to go around in circles.鈥�
Editor鈥檚 note: This story has been updated to correct the year that Mr. Khan was removed from office, and to clarify the nature of PTI鈥檚 by-election victories. The party won seats in national and local assemblies.
