Japan emerges from high-stakes US meeting 鈥榰nscathed鈥� 鈥� but its China woes remain
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Ann Scott Tyson Staff writer
| Beijing
Wrapping tough talk in flattery, Japanese Prime Minister Takaichi Sanae skillfully navigated a high-stakes summit with U.S. President Donald Trump on Thursday, steadying America鈥檚 most critical alliance in Asia amid the turmoil unleashed by the Iran war.
Sporting a signature blue suit and pearls fashioned after her idol, the late British stateswoman Margaret Thatcher, Ms. Takaichi warned Mr. Trump sternly that 鈥渢he global economy is about to experience a huge hit鈥� from the Mideast conflict.
Even so, she added, 鈥淚 firmly believe it is only you, Donald, who can achieve peace across the world.鈥� Mr. Trump smiled broadly.聽
Why We Wrote This
Tokyo relies on the U.S. to safeguard its interests in the Indo-Pacific 鈥� there is no plan B. Although Japan鈥檚 prime minister skillfully navigated a high-stakes meeting in Washington this week, concerns remain about the reliability of the U.S. partnership long term.
Yet beneath the surface of the cordial White House meeting, unease is growing in Tokyo over the strength of the U.S. strategic commitment to Asia 鈥� anxiety deepened by a recent shift of U.S. military assets out of the Indo-Pacific to the Middle East.
U.S. naval ships, Marine Corps units, and air defense equipment have reportedly moved or are moving to support the war on Iran. So far, the shift out of Asia is manageable, says Tsuneo Watanabe, a senior fellow with the Sasakawa Peace Foundation in Tokyo. But a larger redeployment, particularly of ground troops, would be 鈥渁 big concern,鈥� he says.
Japan has no feasible plan B for its defense outside of the U.S. security umbrella, experts in Tokyo say.聽
That makes it imperative for Tokyo to work to safeguard the alliance, even as the U.S. focus has shifted under Mr. Trump 鈥� most recently to Iran, but also more broadly to the Western Hemisphere.
鈥淭hey are looking to see how [effectively] he will use American power 鈥� and how he will think about the alliance with Japan,鈥� says Sheila Smith, senior fellow for Asia-Pacific studies at the Council on Foreign Relations.
Specifically, Ms. Takaichi and her team are struggling to discern the new contours of U.S. foreign policy, including its geographic focus, its stance on China, and the U.S. president鈥檚 military interventions.
Tokyo is questioning how much the second Trump administration is 鈥渕oving away from global leadership and focusing instead on hemispheric priorities,鈥� says Dr. Smith. 鈥淰enezuela was unsettling. Iran is even more unsettling.鈥�
All of this plays into Japan鈥檚 overarching concern, which is 鈥渢he credibility of the alliance, and the reliability of the U.S. over the long term,鈥� says Christopher Johnstone, partner and chair of the Defense & National Security Practice at The Asia Group, a Washington-based business consultancy.
A delicate situation
On her U.S. trip, the first since she took office, Ms. Takaichi鈥檚 most immediate goal was enhancing her personal chemistry with Mr. Trump.聽
By all accounts, she succeeded. Mr. Trump聽praised the conservative Ms. Takaichi as 鈥渁 very popular, powerful woman,鈥� hailing the historic victory of her Liberal Democratic Party in a snap lower-house election in February.
Ms. Takaichi also came bearing gifts of investment and increased economic and trade cooperation: up to $40 billion in Japanese investment to build small modular reactor power plants in the U.S., and up to $33 billion in natural gas generation facilities in Texas and Pennsylvania, according to a White House fact sheet. They agreed to cooperate on commercial development of deep-sea critical minerals including rare-earth muds, as well as missile production.聽
The Japanese leader kept things friendly, even while walking a tightrope between Mr. Trump鈥檚 demands for Japan to use its military to help reopen the Strait of Hormuz, and the Japanese public鈥檚 overwhelming opposition to the Iran war.
鈥淚t鈥檚 a very delicate situation, and my first impression is she managed to walk through this minefield unscathed,鈥� says Jeffrey Kingston, Asian studies professor at Temple University in Japan.聽
Mr. Trump praised Ms. Takaichi for 鈥渟tepping up to the plate,鈥� even as she offered no concessions on Japanese deployments, citing restrictions in Japan鈥檚 pacifist constitution. After the war ends, Japan could dispatch naval minesweepers to help clean up the strait, a critical chokepoint through which Japan鈥檚 and much of the world鈥檚 oil supply flows, says Mr. Johnstone.
Tokyo is eager for Washington to wrap up the conflict, which is damaging Japan鈥檚 economy by pushing up energy and food prices, while forcing the government to release strategic oil reserves.聽
But in a further source of concern within the alliance, Tokyo lacks clarity on Mr. Trump鈥檚 endgame for the war 鈥� whether to decapitate the leadership, or install a more friendly regime. 鈥淗opefully Trump has a realistic goal,鈥� says Dr. Watanabe. Japan has long maintained diplomatic relations with Iran.
About 80% of Japanese oppose the war, polls show. 鈥淧ublic opinion is now realizing belatedly that giving a blank check to the U.S. in the name of the alliance, and putting all the eggs in the U.S. basket, is probably not very wise,鈥� says聽Nakano Koichi, professor of Japanese politics at Sophia University.
China contingencies
Yet China 鈥� not Iran 鈥� was Ms. Takaichi鈥檚 top geopolitical priority coming into the White House meeting. Her visit originally fell just before Mr. Trump鈥檚 scheduled early April trip to Beijing, but that trip has since been delayed.
Mr. Trump has been noticeably silent on major frictions that erupted between Beijing and Tokyo after Ms. Takaichi stated Japan could intervene on behalf of the U.S. were China to attack the democratic island of Taiwan, over which Beijing claims sovereignty.
As China unleashed a torrent of punitive economic measures against Japan, Mr. Trump did not speak up for Ms. Takaichi, apparently because he was prioritizing a trade deal with China, experts say.聽
鈥淭he fact he remained silent certainly did cause anxiety here,鈥� says Dr. Kingston. 鈥淚t reinforces the image of the alliance being unreliable under such a president.鈥�
For Japan, the 鈥渨orst case scenario鈥� would be a U.S.-China partnership that left out Japan, says Dr. Nakano. At their meeting Thursday, Mr. Trump declined to speak on what he called 鈥渆dgy鈥� relations between Beijing and Tokyo, although he pledged to praise Japan when he meets Chinese leader Xi Jinping.
鈥淲e are in this moment where we think of China as a revisionist power, but the U.S. is starting to look like a revisionist power, too,鈥� says Dr. Smith.
As America鈥檚 鈥渆xcursion鈥� in Iran 鈥� as Mr. Trump calls it 鈥� ties up aircraft carriers, munitions, and troops, it is cutting into U.S. combat power in Asia. 鈥淭he principal concern for the Japanese is about American distraction and what it means for the U.S. focus on the Indo-Pacific,鈥� says Mr. Johnstone. 鈥淗ow much can Japan rely on the U.S.?鈥�
Partly in response, Japan is engaged in a major military buildup, increasing its defense spending to more than 2% of gross domestic product.
It is also strengthening defense ties with other regional partners 鈥� from Australia to India, and the Philippines to South Korea. Still, even collectively the scope of these ties pales compared with the U.S.-Japan military alliance.聽
鈥淧lan B,鈥� says Mr. Johnstone, 鈥渋s not something Japanese security planners have a clear concept of.鈥�
