Why Japan鈥檚 prime minister is gambling with snap elections
| Yokohama, Japan
Thousands gathered outside Tokyo on a recent afternoon to see the woman who stood up to China, negotiated a rare-earths deal with President Donald Trump, and taught South Korea鈥檚 leader to play the drums 鈥� all during her first few months in office.
鈥淭here is no future for a country that does not take on challenges,鈥� said Japanese Prime Minister Takaichi Sanae from the rally podium, cameras rising up around her as onlookers tried to get a better view of the country鈥檚 first female leader. 鈥淚f we leave status quo politics as it is, it won鈥檛 generate hope.鈥�
Ms. Takaichi鈥檚 approval ratings have hovered near 70% since she became prime minister in October. Emboldened by her popularity, Ms. Takaichi dissolved the country鈥檚 powerful lower Parliament and scheduled elections for Feb. 8. If her Liberal Democratic Party (LDP) can win a majority of the 465 seats this weekend, it will give Ms. Takaichi broad power to enact her more assertive foreign policy and economic agenda.
Why We Wrote This
Prime Minister Takaichi Sanae has broken through her country鈥檚 political malaise with a bold vision for a more assertive and prosperous Japan. Her party is expected to sweep in snap elections this weekend, expanding the conservative leader鈥檚 power.
And it will be thanks in no small part to the 鈥渇resh image鈥� she has projected, says political analyst and former LDP staffer Tamura Shigenobu.
鈥淢any voters are excited to have an impressive figure representing Japan on the global stage,鈥� says Mr. Tamura, who has worked for 16 Japanese prime ministers. 鈥淪he also delivers a simple and clear message,鈥� he says. It鈥檚 for a strong and prosperous Japan.
Ms. Takaichi鈥檚 edge
Within days of her inauguration, the prime minister made her diplomatic debut at the ASEAN Summit in Kuala Lumpur, Malaysia, and then met with President Trump in Tokyo that same week.
It was their first one-on-one meeting. Ms. Takaichi 鈥� a loyal prot茅g茅 of late former prime minister Abe Shinzo, who was known for his amicable relations with President Trump 鈥� vowed to continue in her mentor鈥檚 footsteps and deepen the U.S.-Japan relationship. On Thursday, Mr. Trump endorsed Ms. Takaichi and her contingent, writing on social media that she is a 鈥渟trong鈥� leader and these elections are 鈥渧ery important to the future of Japan.鈥�
Ms. Takaichi maintained this diplomatic momentum as weeks went on, meeting with Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi and Italian Prime Minister Giorgia Meloni, and attending multiple international summits. These appearances helped boost her image among the 20% of voters who, when polled by Kyodo, cited diplomacy and national security as top issues in the upcoming election.
In November, responding to questions in Parliament, the prime minister warned Japan would face a 鈥渟urvival-threatening situation鈥� if Taiwan were to be attacked. China demanded Ms. Takaichi retract her remarks. She refused.
Some analysts view the moment as a diplomatic blunder. Komeito party, the LDP鈥檚 longtime coalition partner, took issue with her hawkishness and decided to break with the party after 26 years. But her tough stance has also galvanized parts of the LDP base.
鈥淚鈥檓 very happy to see Komeito leave the coalition,鈥� says Ogura Hiroshi, a Yokohama resident and longtime LDP supporter. 鈥淭hat helped Takaichi鈥檚 administration adopt a more defined conservative stance.鈥�
On the campaign trail, the LDP has prioritized the cost of living, Japan鈥檚 economic growth, and its measures against foreign nationals.
The number of non-Japanese residents in a country known for its homogeneity hit a new record of nearly 4 million in June 2025, up 5% from the end of 2024, according to the Immigration Services Agency of Japan.
Ms. Takaichi talks tough on immigration. In Yokohama, she boasted that hers is the first administration to appoint someone in charge of managing the influx of foreigners, including their deportation. 鈥淲hen we have foreign nationals who do not abide by rules or stay illegally, they will be deported,鈥� she said. 鈥淭he Takaichi administration is aiming for zero illegal foreigners.鈥�
The message resonates with voters. 鈥淚 totally understand Japan needs non-Japanese workers, many of whom take on arduous and dangerous jobs,鈥� says Shibata Keiichi, a retiree in Yokohama who intends to vote for the LDP on Sunday. 鈥淏ut I鈥檓 worried about growing crime as more foreign nationals come to live in the country.鈥�
What she鈥檚 up against
Kitamura An, a junior high school student at the Yokohama rally, says the prime minister makes her feel optimistic about Japan鈥檚 future.
鈥淚鈥檓 hoping that she and the public could work together to make Japan a better place,鈥� she says.
Opinion polls predict that the LDP will succeed in expanding its new coalition鈥檚 slim majority, and it may well win enough seats that it no longer needs a coalition partner at all. But dissolving Parliament is still a risky move.
Japan鈥檚 last snap elections backfired, costing the LDP its parliamentary majority and the previous prime minister his job. The country has also consistently struggled with low voter turnout, fueled by political malaise. Calling an election in the dead of winter 鈥� and when record-breaking snowstorms blanket Japan 鈥� is not going to help.
And in this race, Ms. Takaichi faces a new opposition: the recently formed Centrist Reform Alliance, created by the Constitutional Democratic Party of Japan and ex-LDP ally Komeito.
Nevertheless, Ms. Takaichi seems confident that she can secure the party鈥檚 future in a shifting political landscape.
Kaneko Masaru, a professor emeritus of economics at Keio University in Tokyo, warns that her success could come at the expense of Japanese democracy. These elections 鈥渁re somehow becoming a popularity contest of Ms. Takaichi,鈥� he says. 鈥淭hat is very dangerous鈥� because it may allow LDP lawmakers who have been implicated in political funding scandals to avoid accountability.
