Safety or stagnation? Why China鈥檚 isolationism may backfire.
-
Ann Scott Tyson Staff writer
| Shanghai
One day in late August, shortly after China鈥檚 leaders reportedly gathered at the Bohai Sea resort of Beidaihe to put the finishing touches on the agenda for next week鈥檚 20th Communist Party Congress, a government think tank posted an obscure academic article online, sparking a surprising debate.
The article challenged the mainstream view that the isolationism of China鈥檚 Ming (1398-1644) and Qing (1636-1912) dynasties severely weakened China, recasting the policies as targeted efforts to defend China鈥檚 territory and culture against 鈥渁ggressive Western colonial forces.鈥�
Chinese netizens and China watchers alike interpreted the article 鈥� unusual for having no named author 鈥� as a political bid to lend historical ammunition to Chinese leader Xi Jinping鈥檚 drive to make China more self-sufficient and fortify it against foreign threats.
Why We Wrote This
A story focused onChina鈥檚 increasingly isolationist policies stem from Xi Jinping鈥檚 dark view of the international landscape, and his belief that the only safe China is a self-sufficient China. But openness, experts say, is also a source of strength.
With Mr. Xi poised to gain a rare third term at the twice-a-decade political conclave that opens in Beijing on Sunday, a critical question is whether his emphasis on buttressing China will succeed in making it strong and autonomous 鈥� or instead deepen its isolation and bring economic stagnation.
Mr. Xi鈥檚 push for self-sufficiency has enormous implications for the rest of the world. China鈥檚 rise over the past 40 years was fueled by its market-oriented economic reforms and opening to trade, which unleashed the private sector and brought in foreign technology and investment. Now the top trading nation, China is the number one trade partner to more than 120 countries.
But since taking power in 2012, Mr. Xi has transformed China鈥檚 priorities. Mr. Xi鈥檚 approach is rooted in his darker view of the international environment compared with those of earlier Chinese leaders, experts say. In his eyes, China is besieged by 鈥渉ostile foreign forces鈥� bent on thwarting its rise and bringing about the party鈥檚 collapse. National security, Mr. Xi says, is China鈥檚 鈥渢op priority.鈥�
鈥淴i places much greater emphasis on national security than he does on economic policy,鈥� says Richard McGregor, senior fellow for East Asia at the Lowy Institute, an Australian foreign policy think tank.
China鈥檚 arch foe, in Mr. Xi鈥檚 view, is the United States 鈥� and he uses the rivalry to mobilize the party and silence internal critics, says Mr. McGregor. He says anyone who opposes Mr. Xi risks being 鈥渂randed as disloyal and working against the motherland鈥� as it faces 鈥渁n epochal showdown with a rival superpower.鈥�
Push toward self-reliance
Internally, Mr. Xi has moved aggressively to strengthen the Communist Party and tighten its grip over the economy and society. He鈥檚 subordinated the private sector to state-run firms and expanded industrial policy, using huge subsidies to try to outcompete the West in advanced technologies. His stringent COVID-19 controls have closed China鈥檚 borders to many foreign visitors while requiring all inbound travelers to quarantine.
To ensure China can fend for itself in a dangerous world, Mr. Xi seeks to make the country of 1.4 billion people self-reliant in food, energy, and advanced technology. His push for self-sufficiency has gained urgency with the U.S.-China trade war, tensions over Taiwan, and the sanctioning of Russia over its invasion of Ukraine, says Minxin Pei, professor of government at Claremont McKenna College.聽
鈥淏efore 2018 and the trade war, their goal was aspirational. Today, it is existential,鈥� he says, adding that China鈥檚 leaders 鈥渉ave elevated self-sufficiency to a level China has not seen since the end of the Mao era鈥� in 1976, prioritizing it as 鈥渁n issue of national survival.鈥�
Yet China鈥檚 inward turn toward state-led self-reliance under Mr. Xi 鈥� together with his strict COVID-19 policy 鈥� has come at a cost in economic vitality and innovation, experts say.
Mixed results
Under Mr. Xi, annual gross domestic product has steadily declined and this year is expected to fall to 3.5% 鈥� missing the government鈥檚 goal of 5.5% 鈥� according to the Bank of China.
More importantly, economists say, China鈥檚 total factor productivity 鈥� a key measure of efficiency 鈥� has declined from an average of 3.5% a year in the 2000s to 0.7% in the 2010s, according to the International Monetary Fund.
Technological innovation is central to Mr. Xi鈥檚 economic strategy, but by directing investment through the state-owned sector, which is less productive, efficient, and innovative, Beijing undermines that goal.
鈥淐hina has a system that鈥檚 really good at mobilizing resources. But innovation, technological creativity, needs 鈥� a lot of flexibility, it needs a lot of openness,鈥� says Dr. Pei. 鈥淭hat is the fundamental dilemma faced by the Chinese government.鈥�
Mr. Xi鈥檚 plan for China to dominate key technologies on its own underestimates the importance of international collaboration in achieving breakthroughs in areas such as semiconductors, experts say.聽
鈥淓very single success story is done through collaboration,鈥� says Yasheng Huang, professor of international management at the MIT Sloan School of Management. 鈥淚 think they are going to have a very humbling experience with semiconductors.鈥�
To be sure, China has enjoyed successes in homegrown technology, and over the past 10 years it has risen to 11th among countries ranked in the Global Innovation Index published by the World Intellectual Property Organization, a U.N. agency in Geneva. Chinese officials and experts warn that foreign restrictions on technology transfers to China 鈥� such as the recent U.S. tightening of controls on semiconductor chip exports 鈥� will backfire and spur Beijing鈥檚 efforts at technological independence.聽
Tensions between China and the U.S., European countries, and other developed economies have grown during Mr. Xi鈥檚 tenure, as illustrated by sharply negative turns in public opinion toward his leadership. 鈥淒espite its attempts to build a new global order by courting other authoritarian regimes, and its trade and investment around the world, China has become more isolated from countries in the West,鈥� says Anthony Saich, professor of international affairs at the Harvard Kennedy School.
Inside China, Mr. Xi retains significant backing, especially from China鈥檚 nationalists. His poverty alleviation and anti-corruption campaigns have been widely popular, and his health policies have succeeded in keeping China鈥檚 COVID-19 cases and deaths far lower than in many other countries.
The path ahead
Next week鈥檚 party congress and related political events are expected to endorse both Mr. Xi鈥檚 third term and his broad agenda of self-sufficiency.
鈥淔or Xi鈥檚 third term, the trends in the recent years鈥� Chinese economy seemingly will continue, primarily the emphasis on self-sufficiency鈥� and 鈥渢he state-owned sector鈥檚 expansion at the cost of the private sector,鈥� says Wu Guoguang, senior research scholar at the Stanford Center on China鈥檚 Economy and Institutions at Stanford University.
But with no end in sight to Mr. Xi鈥檚 COVID-19 mandates, many Chinese worry that as they endure continuous tests and unpredictable lockdowns, their nation feels increasingly quarantined from the rest of the world.
Such concerns heightened the controversy over the recent academic article on Ming and Qing history, with its more positive reinterpretation of the ancient policy of 鈥渋solation and locking the country,鈥� or bi guan suo guo, familiar to most Chinese from textbooks.
鈥淭he data are pretty clear that openness 鈥� both in history and contemporary periods 鈥� promotes economic growth and 鈥� technological development,鈥� says Dr. Huang, who with colleagues in China has researched trends in Chinese inventiveness since ancient times.
In contrast, 鈥渢he closed-door policy destroyed China鈥檚 economy,鈥� says Dr. Huang, author of the forthcoming book 鈥淭he Rise and Fall of the EAST: Examination, Autocracy, Stability and Technology in Chinese History and Today.鈥�
Many Chinese posted comments online comparing China鈥檚 past isolationist policies with the zero-COVID-19 closures of today.
鈥淏ack then, the whole world was in full swing with the Industrial Revolution. We closed our country in isolation 鈥� fell behind and were beaten,鈥� commented one person in Chinese on the popular Weibo microblogging website.
鈥淭he whole world is opening up,鈥� wrote another, 鈥渁nd only we are locked away.鈥�
