United front: Understanding China and Russia鈥檚 deepening alliance
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Ann Scott Tyson Staff writer
Chinese leader Xi Jinping and Russian President Vladimir Putin struck different tones in public remarks last week at their first face-to-face meeting since Russia invaded Ukraine 鈥� but left little doubt that their countries鈥� 鈥渘o limits鈥� strategic partnership is here to stay.
Despite major Russian battlefield setbacks and Mr. Putin鈥檚 mention of China鈥檚 鈥渃oncerns鈥� over Ukraine, the two leaders pledged to deepen strategic cooperation, support each other鈥檚 鈥渃ore interests,鈥� and join forces to promote regional and global stability. On Monday, senior Chinese and Russian leaders followed up with a new round of high-level security consultations.
Mr. Xi鈥檚 decision to meet Mr. Putin 鈥� during Mr. Xi鈥檚 first overseas trip since 2020 and a month before his expected ascent to a rare third term as China鈥檚 top leader 鈥� underscores the importance he places on the alliance with Russia, experts say. For the embattled Mr. Putin, the relationship with China is increasingly indispensable.
Why We Wrote This
A story focused onChina鈥檚 deepening ties with Russia are likely to grow even stronger in coming years as each country reaps key benefits from the other. Yet historical mistrust and differing global aspirations remain potential weaknesses.
鈥淩ussia is the only ally of consequence for China,鈥� says Alexander Korolev, senior lecturer in politics and international relations at the University of New South Wales in Sydney. And for Russia, 鈥淐hina is like a lifeline,鈥� he says.
The overarching force pushing China and Russia together 鈥� one unlikely to change anytime soon 鈥� is their shared hostility toward the United States and the West, say experts in Sino-Russian relations.
鈥淚n both capitals, there鈥檚 a view that the big 鈥� challenge, the long-term strategic enemy, is the United States,鈥� says Joseph Torigian, assistant professor at American University鈥檚 School of International Service.
鈥淭hey both think about the West as implacably opposed to them as great powers,鈥� he says, and manage their differences so together they can confront that perceived threat.
Shared worldviews
Last February, Messrs. Xi and Putin inked a historic joint statement that created a special relationship between Beijing and Moscow 鈥� one with 鈥渘o forbidden areas of cooperation.鈥� It was designed as a global counterbalance to the U.S.-led system of alliances.聽
Under the pact, they pledge to support each other鈥檚 鈥渃ore interests鈥� 鈥� including China鈥檚 claim to the self-governing island of Taiwan, and Russia鈥檚 interests in Ukraine and other border regions. Beijing has not condemned Russia鈥檚 invasion of Ukraine, instead blaming the conflict on the U.S. and NATO.
In part, the agreement reflected a convergence in the worldviews of Mr. Xi and Mr. Putin, who enjoy strong personal ties built on the 40 one-on-one meetings they鈥檝e had over Mr. Xi鈥檚 decade in power, starting with his first foreign trip as China鈥檚 top leader in 2013.
鈥淭he closeness of the relationship between Xi Jinping and Vladimir Putin is a historical anomaly,鈥� says Dr. Torigian.
Mr. Xi drank in Russian culture in the 1950s, when his father, Xi Zhongxun, managed the program under which thousands of advisers and teachers from the Soviet Union arrived to bolster China鈥檚 building of communism, he says.
Today, Mr. Xi and Mr. Putin share the views that authoritarian political orders are needed to maintain stability and stave off chaos, that the democratic West is in decline, and that together they can shape the international system to advance their interests.
Increasingly interconnected
Economic ties are growing, as China turns to Russia for energy and food amid global shortages as Russia鈥檚 access to world markets is constrained by Western sanctions.聽Russia in recent months became China鈥檚 largest oil supplier, and China's imports of Russian natural gas and coal are also rising. At the same time, Beijing is importing more wheat and other agricultural goods from Russia, having lifted import restrictions on Russian wheat after the invasion of Ukraine.
Military cooperation is also advancing, as China and Russia step up joint military exercises used for both training and signaling, experts say. 鈥淭hey have pretty robust military ties in terms of military exercises,鈥� says Brian Hart, a fellow with the China Power Project at the Center for Strategic and International Studies.聽
鈥淭hey鈥檝e really used those to great effect, for example, by flying a joint air patrol [near Japan in May] on the day of the Quad summit in Tokyo,鈥� he says, referring to the Quadrilateral Security Dialogue among Australia, Japan, India, and the U.S.
Historically, Russian sales of arms and engines have been critical for China鈥檚 military modernization. Moscow is reportedly helping Beijing develop an anti-missile air defense system, says Dr. Korolev. Meanwhile, China makes drones that Russia needs, he says.
Messrs. Xi and Putin also stressed that China and Russia intend to expand their diplomatic cooperation in multilateral organizations as well as the United Nations Security Council.
鈥淲e jointly stand for forming a just, democratic, and multipolar world based on international law and the central role of the United Nations,鈥� Mr. Putin said, according to The Associated Press.
Mr. Xi responded that 鈥淐hina is willing to work with Russia to reflect the responsibility of a major country, play a leading role, and inject stability into a troubled and interconnected world,鈥� according to the official Xinhua news service.
Potential pressure points
The united front presented last week doesn鈥檛 mean China and Russia have forgotten past grievances and betrayals.
Recent history includes long periods of tension and estrangement between the countries, particularly the decades from 1961 to 1989 known as the 鈥淪ino-Soviet split,鈥� when ideological conflicts and territorial disputes put the relationship into a deep freeze. That divide created an opening for the U.S. to establish formal diplomatic relations with the Communist Party-led government in Beijing for the first time in 1979.
Mistrust between the two countries also lingers from past great power competitions between them, which saw imperial Russia as a party to several 19th-century 鈥渦nequal treaties鈥� that forced China to cede large portions of territory to European countries. Given Russia鈥檚 past dominance of China as the more powerful neighbor, some experts say China鈥檚 growing economic heft and Russia鈥檚 relative dependence could give rise to new conflicts.
Looking ahead, China seeks to maintain its strategic partnership with Russia while avoiding severe reputational costs, but this cost-benefit calculation could change 鈥� for example if the Ukraine war severely depletes Russia and further undermines China鈥檚 ties with Europe.
鈥淚f Russia becomes a major drag on China 鈥� or starts to obstruct China鈥檚 broader strategic interests, I think you鈥檒l start to see a deterioration of that relationship,鈥� says Mr. Hart of the China Power Project.
However, many experts believe the strategic alignment between Russia and China is unlikely to change fundamentally without a significant improvement in their respective relations with the U.S. and Europe.
鈥淚f you see a major easing of U.S.-China tensions, kind of a reversal of the recent trend, you might see less of a desire in Beijing to strengthen relations with Russia,鈥� says Mr. Hart.
