海角大神

When North Korean leader Kim Jong-un announced in his annual New Year's address that his country had reached the "final stages" of developing an intercontinental ballistic missile, President Donald Trump tweeted a defiant message: 鈥�"听

It appears North Korea may have taken his tweet as a challenge. Satellite images and intelligence briefings reported by South Korean media over the past two weeks offer grim warning signs: two missiles placed on mobile launchers, improvements at a coastal聽聽and increased activity at the country鈥檚 main聽.

"North Korea's nuclear and missile threats are no longer [just] potential," Hwang Kyo-ahn, South Korea's acting president,聽聽Monday in Seoul, according to the聽South Korean聽news agency Yonhap.聽鈥淚ts nuclear and missile capabilities are developing at an unprecedented rate.鈥�

Analysts say the swirl of activity raises the possibility of the North Korean regime testing an ICBM sooner than expected. Choe Kang Il, deputy director general for North American affairs at North Korea's foreign ministry, recently聽聽that it was ready "at any time, at any place.鈥�

When Mr. Kim first came to power in 2011, American officials were uncertain what to make of him. But as his plans to accelerate his country鈥檚 nuclear program have become clear, concerns have mounted over how to rein in the reclusive, hostile nation before it develops the technology needed to deliver nuclear warheads to San Francisco, or even Washington or New York City.

Siegfried Hecker, a Stanford University professor who has traveled to North Korea and who formerly directed the Los Alamos National Laboratory, the birthplace of the atomic bomb, estimates North Korea already has enough plutonium and highly enriched uranium to build 20 to 25 nuclear weapons.

鈥淭he nuclear program has continued to expand dramatically in the past few years 鈥� more nuclear materials, more nuclear weapons, and more sophisticated nuclear weapons,鈥� Professor Hecker says in an email. 鈥淎ll of these are in the hands of a young leader about whom we know very little and a military about which we know even less. That is the real risk 鈥� it is here today.鈥�

Five nuclear tests

North Korea has conducted five nuclear tests, including two last year, but the country has never successfully launched an ICBM. If such a launch were successful, it would be a major step toward Pyongyang's goal of targeting the continental United States with a nuclear-armed warhead.

How President Trump would respond to an ICBM test has observers and officials in East Asia on edge, given his bellicose rhetoric and willingness to challenge conventional wisdom.

鈥淣orth Korea has a wonderful habit of greeting US presidents with a bit of fireworks,鈥� says Andrei Lankov, a history professor at Kookmin University in Seoul who grew up in the former Soviet Union and studied at a North Korean university. In 2009, North Korea welcomed the Obama administration with a long-range rocket launch followed by a nuclear test. But Professor Lankov says Trump could be a 鈥済ame changer鈥� because of his impulsiveness and mercurial approach to foreign policy.

鈥淭he option of a military operation hasn鈥檛 been taken seriously for decades,鈥� Lankov says. 鈥淣ow it is being discussed with an intensity I cannot remember.鈥�

Lankov says a preemptive strike on North Korean nuclear instillations 鈥� perhaps similar to Israel鈥檚 bombing of a Syrian nuclear facility in 2007 鈥� 聽would likely paralyze its program. But the consequences would be enormous, he says, including a potential retaliatory strike on Seoul.

Trump, who has been a sharp critic of the 2015 Iran nuclear deal, has provided few detailed policy proposals for how he plans to approach North Korea. The聽聽his administration will develop a 鈥渟tate-of-the-art missile defense system to protect against missile-based attacks from states like Iran and North Korea,鈥� and his campaign's position paper talked of more "modern destroyers to counter the ballistic missile threat鈥� from both countries. That would appear to indicate continued support for deploying an advanced American missile defense system in South Korea, despite Chinese and Russian objections.

Another major question is how the Trump administration will engage with China in dealing with the North. China has long been reluctant to rein in its rogue neighbor for fear of collapsing the regime and helping reunify the Korean peninsula. But Trump, like Presidents Obama, Bush, and Clinton before him,聽聽that Beijing, Pyongyang's only political ally and economic lifeline,聽needs to do more. The challenge his administration faces is how to convince the Chinese to keep the North Koreans in check while at the same time pressuring Beijing on everything from trade to its military buildup in the South China Sea.聽

Zhao Hai, a research fellow at the National Strategy Institute at Tsinghua University in Beijing, says it will be a difficult, if not impossible, balance to maintain.

鈥淭his kind of pressure will not give China confidence that it can work with the US to further curb North Korea鈥檚 nuclear ambitions,鈥� Mr. Zhao says, adding that Trump鈥檚 unpredictability makes the situation even more precarious. 鈥淲e should be extremely worried right now.鈥�

Although a military option could be on the table for Trump, many experts say the complexities of the North Korea issue will ultimately lead him to the same playbook used by previous administrations, which have largely relied on sanctions and strained attempts at negotiations.

鈥淵ou get into office and you realize that we don鈥檛 have a whole lot we can risk,鈥� says David Kang, a professor of international relations at the University of Southern California. 鈥淚 don鈥檛 think Trump is going to be any different. His rhetoric may be different, but I don鈥檛 think his policies will be.鈥�

Closer than ever

Trump鈥檚 policies aside, many experts agree that North Korea is closer than ever before to deploying a nuclear-tipped ballistic missile. Kim has already conducted more ballistic missile tests, including from submarines, in his five years in power than his father did during his entire 18-year reign. The North launched more than 20 last year alone.聽

Still, North Korea is likely five or more years away from having the ability to reach the US mainland with a nuclear-tipped missile, says Hecker of Stanford. He says the more immediate threat is its ability to reach all of South Korea, Japan, and some US assets in the Pacific, such as Guam.

With the threats mounting, Hecker and have called on the Trump administration to directly engage with Pyongyang. During his campaign, Trump said he was to end his country鈥檚 nuclear program. Bilateral talks haven鈥檛 been attempted since 2002, when George W. Bush鈥檚 administration accused the North of violating the 1994 鈥淎greed Framework.鈥� The agreement 鈥� aimed at North Korea freezing and eventually dismantling its nuclear program 鈥� collapsed. (Multilateral talks that began in 2003 and included China, Japan, Russia, the US, North Korea, and South Korea, broke down in 2009.)

Critics, including the from North Korea, have warned against compromising with the Kim regime and argue for letting international sanctions take their toll. But Hecker says bilateral talks are the best option.聽

鈥淧resident Trump鈥檚 immediate challenge is to prevent the use of these weapons,鈥� he says. 鈥淭he best way is to talk to the North Koreans to defuse a potential nuclear catastrophe. Eliminating the weapons will be a long-range endeavor.鈥�