China aims for meeting of equals as Xi sits down with Obama
| Beijing
One hundred years ago, Germany鈥檚 rise as a great power so destabilized the European order, and so scared top dog Britain, that the conflict between them tore their world to pieces. Further back in history, dominant Sparta鈥檚 fear of Athens鈥� emergence led to a war that left the ancient world in shreds.
In China, diplomats take that type of long view. When President Xi Jinping, ruler of the contemporary world鈥檚 rising star, meets US President Obama for two days of informal talks in California on Friday, he will have one overriding goal: to convince the leader of today鈥檚 established power that they can learn from history.
Beijing has been talking up 鈥渁 new kind of great power relationship鈥� for several months now. Exactly what this mantra means is not yet clear. But Washington, too, is anxious to explore it.
鈥淭here is a lot of uncertainty and frustration in America about where China is going, and a lot of uncertainty and fear in China about what the US plans to do about us,鈥� says Jia Qingguo, deputy head of Peking University鈥檚 School of International Studies.
If the two leaders hit it off, he adds, their weekend meeting 鈥渃ould be immensely helpful to guide the relationship in a positive direction.鈥�
Strategic trust between the world鈥檚 top two economies is at a dangerously low level, worn away recently in a number of ways: Washington has accused Beijing of massive commercial cyberespionage; China is suspicious that President Obama鈥檚 military and diplomatic 鈥減ivot to Asia鈥� is a bid to contain the Asian giant鈥檚 rise; China has pressed territorial claims and clashed with US allies such as Japan and the Philippines.
The two leaders will hold the first unscripted, two-day Sino-US summit (allowing time for extended conversation) since Richard Nixon and Mao Zedong stunned the world in 1972. And it could have equally dramatic consequences, suggests Orville Schell, head of the Asia Society鈥檚 Center for US-China Relations in New York.
鈥淎 second great breakthrough in the relationship has become a Holy Grail,鈥� he says. 鈥淥f course it鈥檚 hard to do, but that鈥檚 their aspiration.鈥�
Chinese officials and scholars tend to talk in airy generalities when they are pressed for the salient elements of Beijing鈥檚 vision of a 鈥渘ew kind of great power relationship.鈥� They come up with phrases such as 鈥渕utual respect, mutual benefits, and mutual cooperation鈥� or the need for 鈥渞ules and norms to be respected.鈥�
鈥淭he Americans are very concerned to make the concept apply to concrete problems,鈥� acknowledges Professor Jia, who has been active in the intellectual debate. 鈥淐hina understands that, and we are working on it.鈥�
In Washington, some skeptics fear that the proposal鈥檚 purpose is to make the United States accept China鈥檚 stance on sensitive issues, such as Taiwan鈥檚 status or the Dalai Lama, as a precondition for cooperation on other topics.
鈥淚f China thinks the new framework would be a tool to compel the US to respect China鈥檚 core interests 鈥� we are setting ourselves up for failure,鈥� warns Paul Haenle, former China director at the National Security Council. 鈥淚f that鈥檚 the starting point for Chinese cooperation, it won鈥檛 work.鈥�
But Xi knows that 鈥渨e can鈥檛 force the US to do what it doesn鈥檛 want to do, or set preconditions that cannot be met,鈥� says Jia. The US-China relationship encompasses much more than China鈥檚 鈥渃ore issues,鈥� he adds. 鈥淲e can work in other areas and live with our differences.鈥�
(Read the Monitor's report about Xi Jingping's rise)
Common interests
Officials on both sides of the Pacific seeking out issues where the US and China could find common interests do not have far to look. Nuclear proliferation in North Korea and Iran, freer trade, and easier cross-border investment are topics that both sides have raised with each other.
In recent weeks, China has shown greater signs of readiness to work in tandem with the US to put a stop to North Korea鈥檚 nuclear weapons program.
Beijing has also agreed to set up a working group with US officials to discuss cyberespionage, and the trade ministry has sent signals that China might be interested in joining the US-led Trans Pacific Partnership, a free trade group currently in the making.
If Beijing has been hesitant so far to cooperate closely with Washington on Iran and North Korea, analysts here say, it is because China is not clear whether America鈥檚 ultimate goal in these countries is to prevent the spread of nuclear weapons or to overthrow their governments.
鈥淎t this summit, China would like the US to make a lot of things clear,鈥� says Liu Feitao, an expert on Sino-US relations at the China Institute of International Studies, a Beijing think tank linked to the Foreign Ministry.
Xi appears to have the personal, political, and geostrategic confidence to ask Obama for such clarifications. But Chinese strategists say they are under no illusions that their country is a match for the United States.
鈥楽till feeling its way鈥�
China鈥檚 economy may be the second-largest in the world, but it is still less than half the size of the US economy, however it is measured. China is building its military forces quickly, but its Navy is still several years away from deploying its first functioning aircraft carrier group. (The US Navy currently deploys 11.) China鈥檚 per capita income is not expected to equal America鈥檚 until sometime late this century.
鈥淎merica may be in decline relative to its own history, 鈥渟ays Professor Liu, 鈥渂ut compared to other countries in the world, including China, it will go on having the advantage.鈥�
China, meanwhile, 鈥渋s still feeling its way鈥� toward being a great power, says Mr. Schell.
After more than a century of foreign domination, civil war, poverty, and political turmoil, 鈥淐hina is pulsing with desire to restore world respect and become a country of consequence,鈥� Schell says. 鈥淭hat could be very positive if they find the parity and dignity they have yearned for in a constructive, workable, and equitable relationship with the United States.鈥�
