海角大神

Japan鈥檚 main conservative party pulled off an overwhelming victory in Sunday鈥檚 election, giving its leader,聽Shinzo Abe, a mandate to pursue his hawkish security agenda and abandon the country鈥檚 pledge to phase out nuclear power.

The result marked a dramatic comeback for Abe鈥檚 Liberal Democratic party (LDP), just three years after it was ousted in a landslide win for the left-of-center聽Democratic Party of Japan (DPJ).

Exit polls indicated the聽LDP聽was on course to win around 300 seats, and its traditional ally, New聽Komeito, about 30 seats. Combined, that would secure them a two-thirds majority in the 480-seat lower house, enabling them to override attempts to block legislation by the upper house, where no single party has overall control.

That 鈥渟upermajority鈥� would end the policy deadlock that has restrained Japan for the past five years, as it attempts to end two decades of economic stagnation and address ballooning welfare and pension bills.

Abe to focus on economy

Abe, 58, who resigned as prime minister in 2007 amid ill health and scandals involving his cabinet ministers, signaled聽he would make the economy his priority. "First and foremost we have to bring about an economic recovery and pull Japan out of deflation," he said on TV after his party鈥檚 victory was assured.

The current prime minister,聽Yoshihiko聽Noda, whose聽DPJ聽is expected to win just 65 seats 鈥� about a fifth of the number it won in 2009 鈥� said he would resign as party leader to take responsibility for its heavy defeat.

"The result reflects a public assessment of our three years and three months in power,鈥澛燝oshi聽Hosono, the DPJ鈥檚 policy chief, said in a TV interview. "The party leadership, including myself, must take responsibility for that.鈥�

Koichi聽Nakano, a political science professor at Sophia University in Tokyo, says the聽LDP聽had benefited from public anger over the DPJ鈥檚 broken promises.

鈥淭he DPJ鈥檚 slogan three years ago was putting people鈥檚 livelihoods first, but then聽Noda聽increased the consumption tax, and that was seen by voters as a fundamental betrayal,鈥澛燦akano聽says. 鈥淭he Japanese electorate is consistent in punishing the governing party if it feels it has been lied to.鈥�

Shigeru聽Ishiba, the LDP鈥檚 general secretary, said the new administration鈥檚 work would begin immediately. 鈥淭his is a tremendous result, but we have a whole host of issues confronting us, including the economy and national security. The people have expectations of us, and we have to respond to them quickly."

Rockier China relations?

Abe鈥檚 victory could complicate ties with China, with which it is embroiled in a territorial dispute that has harmed trade ties between Asia鈥檚 two biggest economies. Known for his hawkish views, he has promised to take a tougher stance towards Beijing over rival claims to the聽Senkaku聽islands 鈥� known as the聽Diaoyu聽in China 鈥� and to revise the constitution to give Japan鈥檚 military a more prominent role.

A commentary on the website of China's official聽Xinhua聽news agency called on the victor in Sunday鈥檚 election to repair ties with its neighbors and take a long-term approach to regional stability.

It described as a "troubling sign" that some parties, including Abe鈥檚, have pledged to take a tough line on territorial disputes and boost military spending.

Nakano聽says Abe鈥檚 commanding victory would give momentum to his hawkish security agenda. 鈥淒uring his campaign to lead the聽LDP, he said he regretted moderating his stance on China the first time he was prime minister,鈥澛燦akano聽says. 鈥淭his is his last chance, so will he want to go down as someone who moderates his views when in office, or as a conviction politician? My feeling is that he鈥檒l go for the latter."

Big spender

On the economy 鈥� the single biggest issue of the campaign 鈥� Abe has pledged to return to high spending on public works and ease monetary policy to boost growth.

The election also saw the emergence of a third force in the form of the Japan Restoration party, a far-right group led by the outspoken former governor of Tokyo,聽Shintaro聽Ishihara, that was predicted to win around 46 seats.

At one point polls suggested the restoration party could overtake the聽DPJ聽as the country鈥檚 second-biggest party and act as聽power broker聽in a hung parliament. That level of influence now looks unlikely, but聽LDP聽officials suggested the new administration could turn to聽Ishihara聽for support if it decides to proceed with constitutional reform 鈥� a shared ideological goal.

鈥淥ur priority is our coalition with New聽Komeito,鈥澛營shiba聽said, 鈥淭hen we鈥檒l think about how to coordinate with other parties, such as the Japan restoration party, especially on security issues.

鈥漈he聽LDP, which governed for all but 11 months between 1955 and 2009, capitalized on popular anger over the聽DPJ government's failure to deliver on a promise to replace pork-barrel politics with a new focus on families, welfare, and healthcare.

Instead, uncertainty over the economy and Japan's response to the rise of China appears to have sent voters reaching for the familiar 鈥� big spending on public works to boost growth, and more emphasis on boosting Japan鈥檚 ability to defend its shores.