海角大神

Japan鈥檚 political carousel is about to revolve yet again. By late on Sunday evening, the world鈥檚 third biggest economy is expected to install its seventh prime minister in six years, with polls predicting a dramatic comeback by the conservative opposition and its hawkish leader,聽Shinzo聽Abe.

If the predictions are correct, Japan鈥檚 political landscape will have a familiar feel to it. Mr. Abe, who was chosen to lead the Liberal Democratic Party [LDP] earlier this year, has already held the top job, for a year from September 2006.

Abe resigned amid scandal and ill health, and three years later, the聽LDP, which had monopolized聽power for more than 50 years, suffered a heavy defeat at the hands of the Democratic Party of Japan [DPJ] in an election that many predicted would signal a new direction for Japanese politics.

Now, on the eve of the election, the聽DPJ聽experiment lies in ruins. The prime minister,Yoshihiko聽聽Noda, has been criticized for his handling of the economy, his 鈥渨eak鈥� response to Chinese provocations over the聽Senkaku聽islands 鈥� known as the聽Diaoyu in China 鈥� and his party鈥檚 failure to make good on campaign promises.

It marks a dramatic decline in the DPJ鈥檚 fortunes, coming so soon after it tapped into voter discontent with the status聽quo, pledging to curb the influence of faceless bureaucrats, shift money from wasteful public works to families and welfare, and lessen foreign-policy dependence on the US.

The mot recent opinion polls indicate that the DPJ鈥檚 strength in the 480-seat lower house could be reduced to fewer than 70 seats. The聽LDP聽and its coalition partner New聽Komeito聽could even secure two-thirds of lower house seats, giving it complete control of the bicameral legislature after five years of division and policy stasis.

China plays a big role

While Japan鈥檚 stuttering economy is the chief concern of voters as it enters its fourth recession since 2000, the course of the election campaign has been determined, in part, by the country鈥檚 fractious relations with China.

Only this week, a Chinese marine surveillance plane flew into Japanese airspace over the聽Senkaku, sparking protests from Tokyo. Beijing then raised the stakes with the submission to the UN of a detailed explanation of its claims to the islands.

Abe, a hawk who during his previous term in office introduced patriotism into school curriculums聽and upgraded the聽defense聽agency to a fully-fledged ministry, has successfully exploited the public鈥檚 unease over Chinese aggression in the East China Sea.

He has promised to boost military spending, which Japan traditionally limits to 1 percent of GDP, and vowed to beef up the coast guard, currently the last line of聽defense聽in the seas around the聽Senkaku. North Korea鈥檚 successful rocket launch this week will have only strengthened d his credentials as a hardliner against the regime in Pyongyang.

A smaller margin of victory for the聽LDP聽would spark a search for another coalition partner among the myriad smaller parties. The likely candidates include the Japan Restoration Party, a new far-right group led by the outspoken former governor of Tokyo,聽Shintaro聽聽Ishihara, that some polls have put in second place behind the聽LDP.

But Abe would do well to avoid a partnership with the restoration party, says Jeff Kingston, director of Asian studies at Temple University in Tokyo. Mr. Ishihara, he said, would 鈥渄raw attention to himself and provoke China, even though he doesn鈥檛 represent popular opinion. Does the聽LDP聽really want to associate itself with the kind of things that聽Ishihara聽says? He would only complicate matters.鈥�

In the early days of the campaign, Abe鈥檚聽rightwing聽rhetoric came close to matching Ishihara鈥檚. He hinted he would 鈥渞evise鈥� a previous prime ministerial apology for Japan鈥檚 wartime conduct, questioned claims that Japan had used Asian women as sex slaves during its 20th-century wars in Asia, and said he regretted not visitingYasukuni聽shrine 鈥� which聽honors聽the country鈥檚 war dead, including 14 Class A war criminals 鈥� during his last stint as prime minister.

But some analysts believe he will take a more conciliatory approach toward China 鈥� Japan鈥檚 biggest trading partner 鈥� once the realities of political office kick in, citing his fence-mending visit to Beijing soon after he became prime minister six years ago.

鈥淔or all his nationalist credentials, I suspect Abe will be more pragmatic, 鈥� says JohnSwenson-Wright, senior consulting fellow for Asia at聽Chatham聽House. 鈥淚f he鈥檚 in this for the long game and wants to last longer as prime minister than he did the first time, he certainly has the motivation to be more pragmatic.鈥�