In rare move, North Korea admits to missile failure
| Seoul, South Korea
The failure of听North Korea鈥檚 long-range missile fueled fears today that the North may conduct its third underground nuclear test in the near future.听
Just hours after the missile plunged into the听Yellow Sea, North Korea acknowledged the satellite said to be attached to the missile had 鈥渇ailed to enter its preset orbit.鈥� Still, analysts questioned whether the missile actually carried a satellite. The clear purpose, they say, was to improve its capability to carry a warhead as far as the听US West Coast.
The nature of the announcement, in the build-up for massive ceremonies marking the centennial Sunday of Kim Il-sung鈥檚 birth, suggests to analysts that North Korea鈥檚 policies remain unchanged 鈥� and that more missile tests, as well as another nuclear test, are likely.
The fact that听North Korea听acknowledged any level of failure came as a surprise 鈥� though the announcement on听North Korea鈥檚 State TV network, by a woman wearing traditional Korean 鈥渉anbok鈥� dress, did not reveal that the rocket had plunged into the sea slightly more than a minute after launch. The only detail offered was that assorted 鈥渟cientists and engineers鈥� were looking into the reasons for the 鈥渇ailure.鈥�
鈥淭he implications are the same,鈥� says L. Gordon Flake, director of the Mansfield Foundation in听Washington. 鈥淛ust because the test failed,鈥� he says, does not enhance 鈥渢he credibility of negotiators.鈥�
North Korea's carefully phrased admission is likely to have been forced by the presence of foreign journalists, invited to Pyongyang听to 鈥渨itness鈥� the launch. They first learned about the launch and,听minutes later, about the failure, by phone calls to their home offices.
After the North Korean announcement, journalists were bussed to a ceremony for the unveiling of statues of KimIl-sung, the founding 鈥済reat leader鈥� who was born 100 years ago this Sunday, and his son, Kim Jong-il, who took over after his father鈥檚 death in 1994 and died last December. Kim Jong-il鈥檚 son and heir, Kim Jong-un, was at the center of leaders ranged in front of the statues, facing a throng of several thousand cheering people.
罢丑别听鲍厂,听South Korea,听补苍诲听Japan听all denounced the launch as a violation of UN sanctions imposed after听North Korea test-fired an earlier version of the same type of missile in April 2009 and six weeks later conducted its second underground nuclear test. The UN Security Council, meeting today, was expected to condemn the latest missile test even though China, the source of almost all North Korea鈥檚 fuel and much of its food, might oppose strengthened sanctions while calling for 鈥減eace and stability鈥� on the Korean peninsula.
The question, says Mr. Flake, is 鈥淒oes North Korea have greater pressure to go ahead with a nuclear test?鈥�
The logic here is that Kim Jong-un, in his late 20鈥檚, needing to consolidate his power, may now need to overcome the embarrassment of failure by demonstrating听North Korea鈥檚 prowess as听听a nuclear power.
Flake cites the Spring 2009 missile launch and subsequent nuclear test as a disturbing precedent 鈥渇or them to do these things in pairs.鈥�
Analysts note, moreover, that North Korea may well respond adversely to criticism by the UN Security Council even if the Chinese response is weak.听North Korea听in effect has made clear, says Flake, 鈥淚f you criticize our right to do a satellite, we will do a nuclear test.鈥�
Scott Snyder,听Korea听expert at the Council on Foreign Relations in听Washington, believes, however, that听North Korea听will need to come up with 鈥渁 justification鈥� for a nuclear test to听convince those in sympathy with the regime鈥檚 sense of isolation and encirclement by hostile powers.
One sure sign of where听North Korea听is going on the nuclear issue is whether the International Atomic Energy Agency is able to send in inspectors as agreed in talks in听Beijing听between听US听and North Korean negotiators in February. That whole deal has collapsed as a result of the missile test, but the possibility remains that IAEA inspectors may visit the North鈥檚 main nuclear complex.
鈥淭hey won鈥檛 see facilities elsewhere,鈥� says Mr. Snyder, 鈥渂ut laying eyes on that facility might tell us more about the state of uranium enrichment鈥� of nuclear devices.
