China stays cool as new US defense strategy targets Asia
| Beijing
As the Pentagon puts China firmly in its sights with a new US defense strategy that makes Asia its top priority, Chinese analysts are keeping their cool. Though targeting Beijing will complicate US-China relations, they say there is no reason to panic.
鈥淢ilitary guys always seek the best but prepare for the worst,鈥� says Jin Canrong, deputy head of the School of International Studies at Renmin University in Beijing, commenting on the strategy document unveiled Thursday by US Defense Secretary Leon Panetta. That document calls for an increase in the number of US troops in Asia both in the face of uncertainty over China鈥檚 strategic goals, and North Korea's future.
Officially, Beijing was mute Friday about the US strategic shift to its doorstep. Neither the Foreign Ministry nor the Defense Ministry answered requests for comment. But several scholars closely linked to foreign policy-making circles say they do not see the move as a fundamental shift in US attitudes to China.
鈥淚t does not mean that the US is trying to contain China鈥� as it once sought to contain the former Soviet Union, says Yuan Peng, head of the US department at the China Institute of Contemporary International Relations, a government-linked think tank. 鈥淭hey are hedging, but they still hope to have positive relations.鈥�
聽American analysts agreed. 鈥淭his document emphasizes the pessimistic scenario. It is necessarily an insurance policy,鈥� says Denny Roy, a security expert at the East-West Center in Hawaii. 鈥淵ou don鈥檛 see the full breadth of US policy toward China here.鈥�
That does not mean, however, that Washington is not worried by China鈥檚 intentions as it modernizes its military, building advanced stealth jet fighters, developing an anti-ship missile that could keep US vessels 1,500 km (about 932 miles) away from the Chinese coastline, and refurbishing an old Soviet aircraft carrier with which to run sea trials.
Promoting strategic competition
鈥淐hina would not be wrong to conclude that the US is concerned by its military modernization and its intentions,鈥� says Bonnie Glaser, an analyst with the Center for Strategic and International Studies in Washington. 鈥淏ut it would be wrong to say China is now a US adversary.
鈥淭here are areas where we compete and areas where we cooperate,鈥� she adds. 鈥淭he key is to stop the competition from slipping into strategic rivalry that would overwhelm the cooperation.鈥�
Some scholars here worry that the US shift, while posing no immediate threat to China, might promote such strategic competition in the longer term.
鈥淚t will damage mutual trust, and if it poses a potential threat it could lead to a vicious circle and deepen misperceptions,鈥� argues Professor Yuan. 鈥淚t is very natural for the Chinese to think that they are a very important target, so it is not constructive.鈥�
Potential crisis?
Sun Zhe, a security expert at Tsinghua University鈥檚 department of International Relations, shares that fear. In the face of Washington鈥檚 new posture, he says, 鈥淐hina probably has no choice but to adopt hedging itself. 鈥淲e won鈥檛 give up talking to the US but we will continue to strengthen our military power,鈥� he predicts. 鈥淚 am afraid of an escalation of military competition and a potential crisis.鈥澛�
The most likely theater for such a crisis would be the South China Sea, believed to be rich not only in fisheries but in oil and other minerals. China has laid sovereignty claims to almost the whole sea, bringing it into conflict with Vietnam, the Philippines, Taiwan, Malaysia, and Brunei, which all maintain claims to specific islands and atolls.
Washington has officially declared itself neutral in these disputes, but US officials have recently done little to hide their support for China鈥檚 neighbors.
Washington鈥檚 new 鈥渢ilt鈥� toward the Asia Pacific region 鈥渋mplies that if China does something to prevent US power projection, the US will fight back,鈥� suggests Professor Sun. 鈥淭hat hurts our bilateral relations.鈥�
The new US defense strategy, however, 鈥渋s only a new step in the same direction鈥� that Washington has been taking for two years toward greater involvement in Asia, points out Professor Jin. 鈥淐hina鈥檚 leaders have had some psychological preparation for this,鈥� he says. 鈥淚t won鈥檛 shock them 鈥� and they won鈥檛 be very nervous.鈥�
One thing it will do however, he adds, referring to the Chinese military, the People鈥檚 Liberation Army, 鈥渋s give the PLA an excuse to ask for more money. I think they鈥檒l get a bigger budget now.鈥澛�
