Did Mexico's oil reform turn a deaf ear to the public?
| Mexico City
An , saying Mexico is proving to be 鈥渁 model of how democracy can serve a developing country.鈥�
It鈥檚 a great example of how things can look very different from afar than up close.
What transpired in Mexico over the past week on the ground was far from an exercise in a citizenry fully debating and coming to a consensus on one of the most sweeping changes to the state in recent decades. Instead, it was a blunt show of political party discipline, fortuitous events, and roughshod politics.
In the end, it may be good for Mexico. But in the absence of widespread polling on the issue of energy reform, I鈥檇 say politicians acted against popular sentiment. Indeed, that鈥檚 why some call it a third-rail issue in Mexico, akin perhaps to gun control in the United States. Sure, stricter gun laws might be effective in bringing down US gun violence 鈥� but try ramming it past the voters. Moreover, while it may be good for Mexico, acting against popular sentiment also carries risks.
First, here鈥檚 a recap of what happened. The Senate spent barely two days debating the wisdom of opening Mexico鈥檚 energy industry to private investment, overturning a 75-year ban. The issue was sent to the Lower House, which held some 20 hours of debate and approved the measure along strict party lines last Thursday, with the backing of the ruling Institutional Revolutionary Party and the center-right National Action Party.
Within three days, legislatures in a majority of Mexico鈥檚 states also approved the measure, [enshrining it in the constitution].
President Enrique Pe帽a Nieto, on a state visit to Turkey, issued a statement from Ankara [Monday] noting the 鈥渁mple consensus that exists in the country鈥� regarding energy reform and hailing state legislatures that have acted 鈥渧ery fast鈥� to approve the constitutional changes entailed in the overhaul.
He added that the reform would make energy 鈥渃heaper for the population in general, for industry, and this will permit us to become a more attractive and competitive country鈥︹��
In reality, despite heavy government spending on publicity hailing the benefits of foreign investment in energy, my feeling is that many Mexicans still have doubts. So here are the risks: If the populace does not feel the benefits over the next two or three years, discontent about the energy overhaul could meld with unhappiness over other issues. Social stability in Mexico is not a given.
Maybe instability won鈥檛 happen. Maybe energy reform will bring faster growth and new jobs to Mexico in a few years, palpably changing life for a majority. Whatever happens, though, what unfolded this past week was more an exercise in political engineering than an expression of the public will.
鈥� Observations about Mexico and Central America from Tim Johnson, Mexico Bureau Chief for McClatchyDC.
Read more here: http://www.mcclatchydc.com/2013/12/16/211864/mexicos-oil-reform-and-public.html#storylink=cpy
