海角大神

China, India, and Brazil are out. Mexico is in 鈥撀燼t least according to international observers who have been cooing over Mexico's rise in recent months.聽

With a new year and a new government, 聽the way the world views Mexico has already changed dramatically. Mexico has enviable economic stability and a forecast for growth, improved social mobility, and an emerging middle class. It is competing with聽Brazil聽to become聽the economic darling of Latin America and is challenging China in manufacturing prowess. The drug war rages on in many regions, but optimism for Mexico鈥檚 future is trumping the dark prognoses of the recent past.聽

But is all the optimism for Mexico鈥檚 future warranted?

There are two sides to the coin when comes to Mexico's future as a global economic force. The new government inherited an economy rebounding from the impact of the economic crisis, but how the administration approaches deep-rooted challenges like poverty and inequality will determine whether the current optimism gains momentum or peters out.

Mexico鈥檚 potential remains enigmatic. There is no doubting the country鈥檚 macroeconomic successes, economists say. A stable currency over nearly 20 years, steady (if sometimes slow) economic growth; and fiscal discipline have combined to keep Mexico sailing in smooth waters. Mexico has signed a dozen trade pacts, which have opened it to the world. That鈥檚 the bird鈥檚 eye view.聽

But zoom in and Mexico鈥檚 troubles come into focus.

Despite a more open economy and a growing middle class,聽nearly half the population remains poor,聽living on as little as $80 per month or less. The widely industrialized north and central regions contrast with the poverty entrenched across much of the south. Nationwide, between 50 and 62 percent of workers toil in the informal economy, according to the World Bank 鈥撀燼n uncharted area in which workers frequently don鈥檛 pay taxes and lack the safety nets of health insurance or employment contracts.

鈥淲e need to ensure that the benefits of this intelligent global integration reach all the economic players at a national level 鈥撀爏mall and medium-sized businesses, and all regions of the country,鈥� said Economy Secretary Ildefonso Guajardo at a recent conference. 鈥淚t鈥檚 unsustainable to continue having two Mexicos.鈥澛�

'A more inclusive Mexico'

Donning a flower necklace and traditional embroidered serape over his white button-down, President Enrique Pe帽a Nieto recently traveled to Mexico鈥檚 southern Chiapas state to promote a crusade against hunger. The nearly six-month-old administration has promised to reduce the country鈥檚 glaring inequalities,聽starting with malnutrition.

In eradicating hunger, he told a group of supporters in Zinacant谩n, the government 鈥渨ants to achieve a more inclusive Mexico,鈥� one of 鈥渙pportunities for all Mexicans.鈥澛�

In addition to social programs like the anti-hunger campaign, President Pe帽a Nieto鈥檚 administration is pushing an ambitious reform agenda to deliver on the promise聽of greater equality and economic opportunity.

An overhaul of the education system aims to improve the quality of teaching and raise Mexico鈥檚 dismal rankings in student performance. A plan to reform the telecommunications industry would strike at the dominance of billionaire Carlos Slim鈥檚 companies in telephone, cellular, and Internet service 鈥撀爓ith the intent of boosting competition, lowering prices and narrowing the country鈥檚 abysmal digital divide. Both reforms are making their way through Congress.

Also on the table, in draft or discussion stages, are reforms of Mexico鈥檚 banking industry, which has one of the lowest commercial lending rates in Latin America, stunting growth; of the tax code, with the goal of increasing Mexico鈥檚 low levels of tax collection; and of energy, with the aim of sparking investment in a stagnated industry controlled by the national oil monopoly.

The idea driving all these reforms is competition, says Eduardo Perez Motta, president of the Federal Competition Commission.

鈥淏y strengthening the regulatory body鈥� 鈥撀爌art of the telecommunications reform 鈥撀犫�測ou increase the possibility of being able to punish abuses,鈥� he says.

Dominant companies and influential unions in Mexico have long enjoyed immunity from sanctions, even when their practices hurt consumers. Analysts say the government鈥檚 ability to rein in powerful interests could determine whether the country delivers on its potential.

But a 鈥淧act for Mexico,鈥� led by Pe帽a Nieto and uniting Mexico鈥檚 three biggest political parties behind the reforms, has teetered in recent days due to accusations by the opposition that the president鈥檚 party is using the hunger crusade as a platform to campaign for upcoming local elections.

'Mexico's moment?'聽

Beyond the prospect of reform, there are聽other聽bright spots, like the increasing number of students attending college and the growth of Mexico鈥檚 automotive and aerospace industries. Mexico鈥檚 information technology sector, too, is increasingly delivering to US companies the back office outsourcing services that made India a brand name.

Low wages 鈥撀犅犫�撀爌lus proximity to the US market has made Mexico a much more attractive manufacturing and service outsourcing partner for many聽North American聽companies.

鈥淲e believe that Mexico has the conditions to generate [economic] dynamism,鈥� said Gerardo Gutierrez, head of the Business Coordinating Committee, a trade organization, at a聽recent聽conference. 鈥淢exico鈥檚 moment is here."聽

Yet it鈥檚 also because wages have remained stagnant and job growth has been slow for a decade that many Mexicans continue to work outside the formal economy, selling goods from makeshift street stalls or services from the back of a truck.

Federico Fernandez sells聽chicle聽gum, candy, and earrings from a table outside a busy Mexico City metro station, a prime location for which he says he pays the city government a bribe. He is pessimistic about Mexico鈥檚 prospects.

鈥淓very government promises many things during the campaign,鈥� he says, 鈥渂ut once they鈥檙e in they forget about us. I don鈥檛 see the improvement. I work just to get by.鈥�

Mr. Fernandez says he makes enough to pay for food, rent, and transportation and 鈥� perhaps a sign of hope for the future 鈥撀爐o help with expenses for his daughter, the first in the family to attend college.