Could Central American gangs usurp the role of Mexican cartels?
鈥� researches, analyzes, and investigates organized crime in the Americas. Find all of Edward Fox's
Costa Rica's attorney general has warned that with the decline of Mexico's powerful cartels, Central American gangs could rise and take control of criminal operations in the region 鈥� an extreme but not implausible scenario.
In a recent , Costa Rican Attorney General Jorge Chavarria warned that Central America鈥檚 criminal groups could grow stronger and supplant their Mexican counterparts in the region if the Mexican cartels lose power.
鈥淎t the moment, the dominant groups are clearly Mexican. But if we look 10 years ahead, what will happen if in , the fight [against crime] has a positive effect from the point of view of the Mexican state?" Chavarria said. "That is how we have to look at it in order to see how we can avoid the consolidation of Central American organizations that could replace the Mexicans.鈥�
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The main candidates to step into the role of Mexican cartels are gangs in聽the 鈥淣orthern Triangle鈥� of聽, , and Honduras. El Universal highlighted the Salvadoran and Guatemalan groups the and the Charros as among the most powerful.
Chavarria said that no Costa Rican cartels have been detected so far, but that authorities must work to pre-empt their emergence, adding, 鈥淲hat is very risky for us is that someone starts to develop a leadership and establish a Central American organization in the face of a vacuum [in criminal structures] as [could happen] in Mexico and .鈥�
InSight Crime Analysis
The decline of Mexican cartels may already be underway. Last month, US Assistant Secretary of State William Brownfield announced that Mexico鈥檚 larger drug trafficking organizations were 鈥�,鈥� thanks to sustained pressure on their operations in the region. The majority of Mexico鈥檚 large gangs, from the and to the and are now shadows of their former selves, as聽analyst聽.
Brownfield acknowledged that the crackdown on Mexico鈥檚 groups means a greater risk for Central America and the Caribbean.
As El Universal points out, Mexican groups such as the and 聽currently use Central American gangs as operatives to launder money, infiltrate local police and traffic drugs. If these roles reversed, Central American cartels would have to increase their presence in Mexico. This would be more difficult than it was for Mexicans to move south, as the Mexican state has far stronger institutions that the Northern Triangle. Mexican groups were able to take advantage of largely ungoverned spaces in the isthmus -- such as the north Guatemalan province of Peten -- to conduct their operations.
If Central American gangs increase their stake in the trade, they could also bypass Mexico as a transit point and traffic drugs through the Caribbean, a favored route in the 1980s. Both US officials and Caribbean leaders have suggested that the may already be happening thanks to sustained pressure on drug trafficking through Central America. If drugs arrived in the United States by sea, Central American traffickers would be able to increasingly cut Mexican cartels out of the supply chain.
As Chavarria noted, these scenarios are not likely to take place in the immediate future. While Mexican monolithic criminal groups may be disintegrating, any shift of power south will take time. However, Central America's gangs, having spent years as subordinates to the Mexicans, could be well positioned to rise and take control of organized crime in the region.
鈥� Edward Fox is a writer for , which provides research, analysis, and investigation of the criminal world throughout the region. Find all of his research
