海角大神

For the first time since 1995, Peru and Bolivia have overtaken Colombia as the world鈥檚 leading producers of cocaine, the United States said this week.

, the president of the White House鈥檚 Office of National Drug Control Policy (ONDCP), Gil Kerlikowski, said the latest estimates showed Colombian cocaine production down 25 percent from 2010 and an impressive 72 percent from 2001 鈥� its lowest levels since 1994.

This is a 鈥渉istoric鈥� achievement, said Mr. Kerlikowske. Colombian President Juan Manuel Santos

Based on the US data, Peru is now the , a reputation it held in the 1980s and 1990s, before Colombia rose to drug producing and trafficking notoriety. This latest role reversal might imply something of a 鈥渂alloon鈥� effect, where production is quashed in one country, only to have cultivation and production pop up with more force next door.

But the US figures raise some questions, such as why the numbers diverge so wildly .

A numbers game?

In its annual report, the UN Office on Drugs and Crime 鈥� the only other body that measures cocaine production in the Andes Mountains 鈥� said Colombian cocaine production remained stable in 2011 and coca cultivation actually rose that same year, by 3 percent.

The UN estimate for 2011 cocaine production was 345 tons compared to the US estimate of 195 tons 鈥� a discrepancy of 77 percent. UN and US cocaine figures have always differed slightly, but have tended to track each other. No longer, it seems.

But beyond Colombia鈥檚 potential progress under the US numbers, perhaps even more surprising are Bolivia and Peru鈥檚 apparent leaps ahead of their neighbor in how much cocaine they are able to produce from the coca leaf.

The last time coca cultivation was measured by both the UN and the US, in 2010, Colombia and Peru had about the same number of coca fields, whereas Bolivia had less than half. According to the US, Colombian drug producers are now producing less than half the amount of cocaine from their coca leaves than their counterparts in Bolivia and Peru. Though Michael McKinley, the US ambassador to Colombia, told El Tiempo the White House figures have , the US has declined to make its methodology public. 聽

This discrepancy between the amount of coca leaf versus the amount of cocaine produced is interesting when taking into account a key factor in previous US calculations: What amounts of coca leaves are grown in Peru and Bolivia for chewing and products like coca tea?

A said it was US government policy to overestimate cocaine production figures for Peru and Bolivia 鈥渢o some unknown extent," because it was difficult to say with certainty what coca was being funneled towards legal versus illegal markets in those two countries.

It鈥檚 true that Bolivia has gotten much better at making more cocaine from less coca in recent years (ironically , a more efficient production process). But some find it hard to believe Bolivia is outpacing Colombia in the production of cocaine when it has half the amount of coca crops, and uses a significant amount of those crops for legal products. It鈥檚 鈥渄ifficult to fathom,鈥� ).

鈥榊ou can see the results鈥� in Colombia

, the US office pointed to what they believed was behind Colombia鈥檚 strides in combating cocaine production: Plan Colombia, which has strengthened the US-Colombia partnership. 鈥淭hese reductions can be traced to a variety of factors that resulted from the strengthened US-Colombia partnership forged through Plan Colombia.鈥�

Since 2000, the US has spent 聽on Plan Colombia, a program to combat drugs and leftist insurgents in the Andean nation. It is the largest US foreign aid program outside the Middle East and Afghanistan and has helped bring about major improvements in Colombian security, though has come under criticism for failing to protect human rights.

Fredy Alonso Hurtado, a middle-aged doorman in 惭别诲别濒濒铆苍 鈥� Colombia鈥檚 second-largest city and once the heart of the country鈥檚 cocaine empire 鈥� agreed that US investment had made a major difference. 鈥淓ven in my barrio [neighborhood], you can see the results of Plan Colombia,鈥� he says. 鈥淭here are new roads, a school, a recreation center 鈥� these things help steer people away from drug trafficking.鈥�

According to Mr. Hurtado, Colombia produced less cocaine than Bolivia even though it grows more coca because since the beginning of Plan Colombia, measures countering cocaine production and transportation have been much stricter 鈥渁t every level.鈥�

The UN doesn鈥檛 seem agree to with the US on that front either, estimating that cocaine yield from coca is around the same level for all three countries.

"While we don't challenge the UN estimates, we believe that our estimates are informed by more sophisticated technology and a different methodology," said the US office.

As the US refrains from explaining its methodology, it is leaving itself 鈥渨ide open to charges that its estimates are politicized,鈥� says the Washington Office on Latin America's Adam Isacson.

Plan Colombia hasn鈥檛 just helped reduce narcotrafficking 鈥� it has also strongly advanced American business interests. Colombia is the US鈥檚 poster child in the region, and it is strongly in American interests to hail the success of Plan Colombia, so the logic goes.

Bolivia, on the other hand, has consistently put itself at odds with US foreign policy, especially regarding counter-narcotics. Its leftist president Evo Morales, a former coca growers union leader, has fought for the rights of farmers, going so far as to kick out the US Drugs Enforcement Agency in 2008 and refusing to let it back in since. [See the Monitor鈥檚 latest cover story on Latin America reinventing the war on drugs]

The US also has an interest in encouraging Peru to toe the line. President Ollanta Humales, elected on a populist left-wing platform, has .

鈥淲hen your numbers so plainly appear to favor an ally over an adversary with roughly half as much coca, it's incumbent upon the US to be more transparent about how it derives its estimates,鈥� says Mr. Isacson.