What a president鈥檚 party split means for anti-corruption fight in Guatemala
| EL ESTOR, Guatemala
On a recent July morning, a dozen or so Indigenous people gather around a bonfire by the shore of Guatemala鈥檚 largest lake, Izabal.
They are holding a ceremony in the Indigenous language Q鈥檈qchi鈥� before kicking off a community meeting to discuss a legal case against a major nickel mine nearby. Several people voice their frustration: after years of fighting extractive industries on their land, they had hoped for different results under Guatemala鈥檚 reformist President Bernardo Ar茅valo, now a year and a half into his four-year administration.
鈥淗ere, everyone supported Ar茅valo,鈥� says Luis L贸pez, a Mam Indigenous lawyer. But today, many say they feel abandoned by the government.
Why We Wrote This
Guatemala's anti-graft president rose to power with key support from Indigenous voters. Does a split in his anti-corruption party mean an erosion of that important base?
When the president鈥檚 party splintered earlier this year, as 14 of the 22 party members currently holding office moved to the newly-created Ra铆ces party, supporters were concerned that President Ar茅valo鈥檚 key base was deserting him.
Mr. L贸pez says yes, he is frustrated about mining projects and the ongoing criminalization of Indigenous communities under Mr. Ar茅valo. But, like many other Indigenous people here, he still stands reluctantly behind the president.
Mr. Ar茅valo rose to power with key support from Guatemala鈥檚 22 Maya Indigenous groups, alongside labor unions and student movements. Promising to root out corruption, he put Guatemala鈥檚 traditional ruling class and many in the business sector on high alert after his unexpected advance to an August 2023 runoff. His candidacy prompted immediate legal maneuvers aimed at keeping him and his nascent Movimiento Semilla party out of office. They failed, but now that he is at the helm of the country, the same powerful players have moved to block his ability to govern.
Although some in Semilla say they felt blindsided by the party split, observers say it could be a pragmatic move.
鈥淭his is about the future of the party,鈥� says Eduardo N煤帽ez, director of the National Democratic Institute in Guatemala, a pro-democracy not-for-profit. Ra铆ces, the splinter party, could secure the reformist movement鈥檚 participation in the 2027 presidential elections, he says, as Semilla has been suspended and reinstated, and has endured heavy pressure since 2023.
鈥淭oo much鈥� hope?
Semilla emerged from Guatemala鈥檚 2015 anti-corruption movement, which forced a sitting president to resign over graft charges. It evolved from an academic discussion group into a formal political party in 2018, largely composed of young, urban academics and student leaders.
They expected drastic action from their underdog president 鈥� an end to entrenched patronage networks and an overhaul of the justice system. In particularly they sought the dismissal of Guatemala鈥檚 Attorney General Mar铆a Consuelo Porras Argueta, who faces US sanctions for stalling corruption probes. But Mr. Ar茅valo has taken a slower, more pragmatic approach, trying to work through institutional channels that many say were built to stop precisely the revolutionary work that Semilla was conceived to carry out.
The country鈥檚 historic ruling coalition鈥檚 goal isn鈥檛 鈥渏ust removing Semilla,鈥� says Fernando Solis, coordinator of Asociaci贸n Civil El Observador, a democracy watchdog. 鈥淚t鈥檚 about closing the country, manipulating the law ... and criminalizing the opposition.鈥�
The country鈥檚 long-established ruling bloc aims either to weaken Mr. Ar茅valo to the point of paralysis or to remove him on legal grounds, Mr. Solis says. The president is under pressure from his supporters to dismiss Attorney General Porras. She has been accused of politicizing the justice system to punish opposition figures, including , judges, and Semilla party members. Yet Mr. Ar茅valo has not been able to secure congressional support to remove her.
鈥淭he Public Ministry is an autonomous institution,鈥� Ms. Porras鈥檚 office said in a statement before the 2023 runoff election, in which they were accused of meddling. 鈥淚ts actions are carried out in adherence to the principle of legality.鈥�
Young party leaders underestimated the difficulty and slow pace of governance, and have grown disillusioned, says Hugo Maul Rivas, president of the National Center for Economic Investigations (CIEN), a Guatemalan think tank.
Some placed 鈥渢oo much hope鈥� in the president鈥檚 ability to fight corruption, Mr. Maul says. But, 鈥渃oming to power doesn鈥檛 mean making overnight changes,鈥� especially without a majority in Congress.
Mr. Ar茅valo 鈥� son of Guatemala鈥檚 first democratically-elected president 鈥� faced obstacles even before he took office. He was inaugurated just after midnight on Jan. 15, 2024, after opposition members of Congress delayed the process by nine hours.
Semilla鈥檚 most prominent congressman, Samuel Andr茅s P茅rez 脕lvarez, led the mutiny that formed Ra铆ces. He sees the splinter party as the future of a social and political project that has become impossible under Semilla. A group of eight congressmen, led by a close ally of the president, have remained with Semilla. They say the split took them by surprise and showed disloyalty.
鈥淚 had hoped that once the government took office, these unjust and arbitrary persecutions would come to an end,鈥� says Andrea Marcela Blanco Fuentes, a former Semilla parliamentary candidate who has been under house arrest, facing a raft of charges laid by the attorney general鈥檚 office. 鈥淏ut my case remains open and the political persecution continues,鈥� she says of her recent defection to the Ra铆ces party.
She describes the new group as 鈥渢he continuation of what has been sown with the Semilla government,鈥� and says the split is not over goals, but over differences in strategy and tactics.
鈥淲e don鈥檛 want our fight for a better country to be cut short,鈥� says Ms. Blanco.
Ra铆ces now has 18 months to collect sufficient signatures to legally incorporate the party and be eligible to run in the 2027 presidential race, says Mr. N煤帽ez from the pro-democracy group.
Mr. Ar茅valo says Ra铆ces 鈥渃ontinues supporting the government.鈥�
A disillusioned electorate
Guatemala鈥檚 indigenous communities went to bat for Mr. Ar茅valo when they called a national strike in early October 2023, and organized highway blockades and a three month encampment in the capital to counter repeated efforts by traditional business and political forces to block Mr. Ar茅valo鈥檚 election.
Many of his supporters believe Mr. Ar茅valo could have forced the attorney general out, with wide popular support for such a move. But the president does not want to overstep his power, Mr. Solis says.
Here in El Estor, a six-hour drive from Guatemala City, Humberto Cuc, and Indigenous leader, is frustrated by mining on his community鈥檚 lands. 鈥淲e have a state that only protects the interests of extractive companies,鈥� he says.
In 2019, Guatemala鈥檚 Constitutional Court ordered the suspension of operations at the Felix nickel project after ruling that the mine and processing facility had operated illegally since 2005 due to lack of local consultation. However, a Swiss-based company operating through its Guatemalan subsidiaries is currently pressing Mr. Ar茅valo鈥檚 government to formally resume extraction.
Mr. Cuc, looking out over Lake Izabal, says the water has been contaminated by the mining company鈥檚 past activity. He fears that if it gets permission to resume extraction, the water source will deteriorate even further. For him, water has life 鈥� and gives him and his community life. He demands proper consultation processes 鈥� and ultimately the complete closure of the mine.
Mr. L贸pez does not have high hopes for the new Ra铆ces party, expecting it will be more of the same. 鈥淏ut of course we will continue to support [the president] 鈥� most of all from a democracy perspective,鈥� he says. 鈥淕uatemalans want the country to move forward and prosper.鈥�
