In Latin America, armies stage comebacks 鈥� but not by coup
| La Paz, Bolivia; and Mexico City
Estela Fern谩ndez Arteaga was riding a minibus to a doctor鈥檚 appointment in La Paz last week when passengers, gaping at their cellphones, started calling out about a coup.
鈥淚 tried to stay calm,鈥� says Ms. Fern谩ndez, a butcher who lived through military coups and attempted coups as a child. On Wednesday, as Gen. Juan Jos茅 Z煤帽iga led troops and tanks to storm the presidential palace in the country鈥檚 mountainous administrative capital, many here ran to markets and ATMs to stock up on food and cash, fearful of what was to come.
Bolivians, like many Latin Americans of a certain age, are no strangers to coups. For most of the 20th century, political upheavals and dictatorships were common features in the region. By 1977, only four Latin American countries were not living under a dictatorship. Near the turn of the last century, though, most of the region had moved toward democracy, and coups began to feel like a thing of the past.
Why We Wrote This
A story focused onMilitary coups used to be commonplace in Latin America. While that鈥檚 no longer the case, regional armies are seeing a renewed prominence as democracies increasingly rely on them for civic functions.
Last week鈥檚 attempted coup in Bolivia may have failed (some even believe it was faked in order to boost the president鈥檚 popularity), but it underscored an important shift in the military鈥檚 role across the region in recent years, experts say. After decades in the background, siloed off from civilian governments, many armies are stepping back into the spotlight at those governments鈥� invitation.
Soldiers have been given tasks normally carried out by the police or emergency services, such as fighting organized crime, responding to natural disasters, enforcing migration policies, or imposing curfews.
This has boosted the power and presence of the armed forces, and their reputations. Trust in in the region, higher than citizens鈥� trust in elections and in the three main branches of government, according to a 2023 report by Vanderbilt University鈥檚 LAPOP Lab.
鈥淧oliticians and presidents are bringing the military in and letting them get more involved in governing,鈥� says Ra煤l聽Madrid, a professor of government at the University of Texas at Austin, who is working on a book about the origins of democracy in Latin America. 鈥淚t鈥檚 a worrisome trend.鈥�
A fake coup?
Last week鈥檚 coup attempt lasted just three hours, during which soldiers marched into the plaza in front of the government palace and armored vehicles rammed its doors. It ended with the arrest of General Z煤帽iga, who had been fired by Bolivian President Luis Arce the day before. Mr. Arce was shown on national television at one point, facing down General Z煤帽iga in a hallway and telling him that 鈥淚 am your captain and I order you to withdraw your soldiers.鈥�
Bolivia faced months of political infighting and tension in the lead-up to this faceoff. The economy is in shambles, and a presidential vote scheduled for next year is pitting the sitting president against a member of his own party, former President Evo Morales.
In 2019, when Mr. Morales claimed victory in a presidential election whose results were fiercely contested, the head of Bolivia鈥檚 armed forces strongly 鈥渟uggested鈥� that he should resign, a move that many observers considered a nonviolent coup d鈥櫭﹖at.
Before his arrest last week, General Z煤帽iga alleged that Mr. Arce was actually in cahoots with the military to organize Wednesday鈥檚 coup in a bid to increase his popularity. Mr. Arce denies the allegations.
Regardless, 鈥渋t reflects the institutional crises of the country,鈥� says Juan Carlos Salazar, a veteran Bolivian journalist who has covered several coups and flare-ups of political violence during his career. 鈥淲e鈥檝e had a crisis of the judiciary, a crisis of the legislature 鈥� this power struggle is reflected in all the country鈥檚 institutions,鈥� Mr. Salazar says.
鈥淲ith everything that went down in 2019, [Wednesday鈥檚 faceoff] really scared me,鈥� says Jessica Arancibia, an English student who found out about the coup attempt from TikTok. 鈥淚 feel like something really bad is coming and we aren鈥檛 paying enough attention,鈥� she says.
Uniforms are back in style
There was a time when Latin America was synonymous with coups. Generals regularly ousted elected leaders, installing military juntas from Guatemala in 1954, to Brazil in 1964, to Chile in 1973. During the Cold War, military officers often seized power in the name of fighting communism.
But, almost across the board, military governments failed to deliver, says Dr. Madrid, the professor of government at UT Austin.
鈥淲hy tolerate regimes if they didn鈥檛 even bring the economic stability they were supposed to bring?鈥� he asks rhetorically. Many regimes were also discredited by human rights violations, he adds.
As pro-democracy movements strengthened around the world toward the end of the 20th century, regional groups such as the Organization of American States promoted international democratic norms, says Gustavo Flores-Mac铆as, a professor of government at Cornell University.
鈥淏ut there were also institutional changes鈥� intended to push the military back from civilian governments, says Dr. Flores-Mac铆as. 鈥淐ountries moved away from having a member of the military as the secretary of defense, for example. This creates distance and a healthy understanding among civilians of military affairs.鈥�
But, in recent years, those pressures that kept the military out of politics have been 鈥済oing in the opposite direction because of the region鈥檚 deteriorating public safety,鈥� says Dr. Madrid.
More and more governments, from Ecuador to Mexico, Peru to El Salvador, are turning to the armed forces to help resolve public security problems ranging from organized crime to anti-government protests.
鈥淔or younger generations that didn鈥檛 grow up under military rule, the [failures] of military leadership feel very distant,鈥� says Dr. Flores-Mac铆as.
Latin Americans鈥� support for democracy has shown a decline over the past 13 years, according to the polling project Latinobar贸metro. As of 2023, only 48% of them preferred democracy to any other form of government.
鈥淚 don鈥檛 expect the military is going to seize power in Latin America,鈥� says Dr. Madrid. 鈥淢y hunch is that those days are mostly gone. It鈥檚 something the international community wouldn鈥檛 find acceptable.
鈥淏ut we will likely see the creeping militarization of politics,鈥� he suggests. 鈥淧erhaps a military will get rid of a leader, but won鈥檛 stay in power themselves. But that鈥檚 problematic, too.鈥�
At the heart of the military鈥檚 return to prominence, Dr. Flores-Mac铆as adds, 鈥渋s the perception that civilians are unable to solve society鈥檚 problems, that elected governments aren鈥檛 delivering results.鈥�
鈥淓very day that democracy prevails we should celebrate.鈥�
