Nicaraguans sound alarm over declining democracy. Who鈥檚 listening?
| Mexico City
A former first lady. A leading independent journalist. Prominent business leaders. Five presidential hopefuls.
Over the past month, Nicaraguan officials and police have intimidated, detained, and put under house arrest more than a dozen high-profile critics. It鈥檚 drastically deepened an already widespread chill on willingness to speak out against the authoritarian government of Daniel Ortega, whose Sandinista National Liberation Front (FSLN) is vying to extend its time in office in November presidential elections.
Observers agree there鈥檚 likely a combination of factors motivating the government to up the ante: upcoming elections; the possibility of a long-expected transition of power from Mr. Ortega to his wife, Rosario Murillo; and a pandemic that鈥檚 distracted much of the international community from human rights abuses and new laws that give the guise of legal cover to this crackdown.
Why We Wrote This
Nicaragua鈥檚 president has been shrinking space for opposition for years, but especially now, amid the pandemic. After looking away for so long, can the global community still step in?
鈥淭hese have been days of terror. People are just glued to Twitter trying to figure out who has been arrested, who has been detained, and who might be next,鈥� says Mateo Jarqu铆n, an assistant professor focusing on Latin America at Chapman University in California. Homes have been ransacked, relatives of targets have been threatened, and powerful critics are leaving the country in anticipation that they might be next.
The international community is taking note. Last week, the Organization of American States condemned the government鈥檚 actions, calling for the immediate release of political prisoners. Argentina and Mexico recalled their ambassadors this week. Human Rights Watch put out a report Tuesday from the United Nations. Earlier this month, the United States enacted additional sanctions against Mr. Ortega鈥檚 daughter and a handful of top Sandinista party officials and said it will review trade relations if elections aren鈥檛 free and fair.
But with Nicaragua鈥檚 long track record of crackdowns on human rights and freedom of expression, few have a clear idea of who 鈥� or what 鈥� will help Nicaragua change course. The fragmented opposition has struggled to inspire hope. The country has suffered loss of life 鈥� and livelihoods 鈥� during the pandemic. And after the violent crackdown on largely youth-led protests in 2018, few see internal avenues to challenge the government.
鈥淲hat鈥檚 happening isn鈥檛 new; this has been going on for more than 10 years. But the global community hasn鈥檛 had its eyes fixed on Nicaragua鈥� until this month, says Martha Patricia Molina, a lawyer who works with Nicaragua鈥檚 Pro-Transparency and Anti-Corruption Observatory. 鈥淲e鈥檝e been documenting and denouncing the same kinds of human rights violations and arbitrary detentions among citizens for years. Now, the government鈥檚 touching people with more relevance at a national and international level, and the impact at the global level is stronger.鈥澛�
鈥淚t鈥檚 what Ortega says鈥�
Jairo Videa, co-founder of the independent news site Coyuntura, found himself fleeing Nicaragua for the second time earlier this year. He鈥檚 just 24 years old.
鈥淭he persecution and attacks on my outlet have been constant,鈥� says Mr. Videa, who continues to cover Nicaragua from exile. In February, he was physically attacked and had his phone taken on the street. The next day his computer stopped working, possibly hacked. Within 24 hours he was planning his next departure 鈥� to Spain, where he was admitted to a writing program for journalists facing threats and persecution in their home countries.
鈥淲orking as an independent journalist in Nicaragua is like a game of Russian roulette. You don鈥檛 know when the police or paramilitaries will come knocking on your door,鈥� he says.
Even leaving Nicaragua was a challenge 鈥� from the Health Ministry鈥檚 refusal to give him needed paperwork, to police and questioning at the international airport.
鈥淚ndependent institutions don鈥檛 exist in Nicaragua,鈥� says Ms. Molina. 鈥淭here鈥檚 no division of power or checks and balances. ... It鈥檚 what Ortega says that goes.鈥�
Mr. Ortega won office in 2007, after serving a separate presidential term from 1984 to 1990. Late last year, the National Assembly passed a series of laws restricting freedom of expression and giving his government greater control over the electoral process. One measure allows candidates to be barred from elections if they speak in favor of U.S. sanctions. Others make it easier to prosecute people for receiving foreign funding or leaking 鈥渇alse鈥� information. Rights groups inside the country report that at least perceived as critics are under arbitrary detention.
The government succeeded in 鈥渇ormally criminalizing various forms of dissent and civil society activity, labeling it money laundering, treason, conspiracy,鈥� says Dr. Jarqu铆n. 鈥淐learly we didn鈥檛 pay enough attention to that at the time [in the midst of the pandemic]. ... And now we see how efficient the state has been in using these laws to speed up detentions. It helps them communicate a narrative to their base. It鈥檚 a very cynical narrative, but it鈥檚 coherent: 鈥楾hese people are laundering money. They received it from the U.S. and they send it to all their friends and NGOs to make themselves rich. They go to the U.S. and ask for sanctions. They鈥檙e clearly treasonous.鈥欌��
Pressure from abroad?
Mr. Ortega鈥檚 party maintains about , according to a CID Gallup poll released in February. Dr. Jarqu铆n says the opposition鈥檚 failure to propose a coherent alternative explains FSLN鈥檚 ongoing support 鈥� though he adds that it鈥檚 never too late to come together.
And although multilateral pressure on Nicaragua is important, he says, 鈥渋f you鈥檙e going to pressure the regime, you need to create incentives for democratic opening,鈥� which he doesn鈥檛 see amid the current barrage of sanctions and removing ambassadors.
Ms. Molina says the international community has a fundamental role to play, starting with sanctions 鈥� preferably against individuals, so that normal citizens are spared increased economic difficulties. Nicaraguans, she says, can no longer do much.
鈥淎s a Nicaraguan, if we raise our voice at this point, it means jail, it means torture, it means violations of our rights,鈥� Ms. Molina says. She鈥檚 currently outside the country and says that鈥檚 the reason she feels comfortable speaking openly about the situation. Repeated interview requests by 海角大神 to analysts, academics, and journalists inside Nicaragua were declined due to the personal risks involved.
There are risks for the international community in not taking action: increased migration, for example (some 108,000 Nicaraguans have fled since the 2018 crackdown, according to ), and a further weakening of democracy not only in Nicaragua, but also in the region.
鈥淭he consolidation of a dictatorship in Nicaragua is both part of the Latin American erosion of democracy, but also one that really contributes to it,鈥� says Dr. Jarqu铆n, who says neighboring countries like Honduras, Guatemala, and more recently El Salvador have been slow to condemn Mr. Ortega鈥檚 actions because they鈥檙e busy taking notes, condemning their own nations鈥� civil society groups as working against the state.
Nicaraguans are looking for glimmers of hope where they can find them. For Ms. Molina, it鈥檚 youth. 鈥淲e鈥檙e coming at politics with a different mentality than our predecessors. We鈥檙e more informed. We aren鈥檛 passive citizens,鈥� she says.
Mr. Videa, the young journalist, chuckles when he says it鈥檚 his own dreams that give him hope. 鈥淢y hope is myself. I want a future, I want to be a professional, I want a home, and to build my team writing independent news stories.鈥�
Dr. Jarqu铆n says that, as an academic, he鈥檚 less inclined toward optimism. But 鈥渞epression is expensive, and it creates problems and it creates resentment,鈥� he adds. 鈥淵ou can鈥檛 do it forever.鈥�
