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Brazil-US relations are at a crossroads following President Dilma Rousseff鈥檚 cancellation of an official state visit to Washington next month, according to political and economic analysts.聽

One path leads to a prompt US investigation that satisfies 叠谤补蝉颈濒铆补 and paves the way for a rescheduled presidential summit and subsequently boosted trade ties. But the other path leads to a steady deterioration in relations that could derail pending business deals here for US companies including Boeing and Chevron.

The uncertainty has some wondering if Brazil will now go the way of some of its neighbors, taking on a cooler tone with the US, long accused of treating Latin America like its backyard. The defense ministers of Brazil and Argentina have already met and pledged to increase their cyber security capabilities against such 鈥渇orms of attack鈥� from the US.

鈥淏efore this happened, the whole idea was that Rousseff鈥檚 trip would launch bilateral relationships to a new level,鈥� says Joao Augusto de Castro Neves, a Latin America analyst at Eurasia Group in Washington. 鈥淣ow, the question is whether we see a further deterioration of relations. The goals and expectations have changed.鈥澛�

The row erupted in June when Brazil鈥檚 Globo TV began publishing a series of reports based on leaked information from former US National Security Agency contractor Edward Snowden, who has been granted temporary asylum in Russia. Globo鈥檚 reports continued this month with evidence of NSA slides that appeared to show direct spying on Rousseff鈥檚 communications, hacking into the computer network of state oil company Petrobras, and the interception of billions of e-mails and phone calls made by people across the country.聽

Rousseff鈥檚 office said yesterday that the US has not provided a full explanation of its surveillance program, nor has it promised to cease spying, which means, 鈥渃onditions aren't in place鈥� for the visit.聽

Points for 'snubbing the Yankees?'

In fast calculations for the expected fallout, analysts are dividing between political and economic reverberations.聽

Politically, Rousseff scored points at home. 鈥淵ou鈥檝e never heard of a Latin American leader losing ,鈥� Fabio Zanini, the world editor for Folha de Sao Paulo, wrote in an op-ed yesterday. Matias Spektor, a professor of international relations at Funda莽茫o Getulio Vargas in Rio de Janeiro, wrote that the political opposition 鈥渓ike a bazooka鈥� ahead of next year鈥檚 presidential election.

Rousseff could use the jolt, as her personal popularity ratings hit a low of 49.3 percent in July following massive nationwide demonstrations against government corruption and poor public services. Her numbers have recovered to 58 percent, although are still down from the high 70s earlier this year.聽

But while Rousseff鈥檚 decision is being cast as a stand against the US, she also lost a valuable chance to boost valuable trade ties with the US, says Roberto Izurieta, head of the Latin America Department at The George Washington University's Graduate School of Political Management.

鈥淭he cancellation of this visit is a lost opportunity,鈥� he says. 鈥淭he White House has many other pressing issues to resolve; unfortunately, despite the importance of Brazil and the whole of Latin America, it is not the top agenda of the US government.鈥澛�

Business and trade

Some expect relations to normalize in the medium-term, without any major repercussions. 鈥淭he economic interests of both sides are above the 鈥榗risis鈥� in progress,鈥� says Andr茅 C茅sar, a political analyst at Prospective Strategic Consultancy in 叠谤补蝉颈濒铆补.

If not, Brazil鈥檚 economy may have more to lose than the US, Mr. Izurieta says, citing weak growth indicators in both Brazil and its trade partners Europe and China. 鈥淕iven Brazil's waning economy, and the US's growing economy, Brazil has more to gain if this impasse is overcome as soon as possible,鈥� Izurieta says.聽

Specific US-Brazil deals that could be impacted include Boeing and Chevron, according to Eurasia Group鈥檚 Mr. Castro Neves. The US oil giant is expected to bid for concessions in Brazil鈥檚 Libra prospect next month, considered one of the largest offshore oil fields ever discovered, although Chevron鈥檚 involvement there could cause now 鈥渁 political firestorm,鈥� says Castro Neves.聽

鈥淗ow will the government respond if an American company wins the bid round?鈥� says Castro Neves, predicting potential allegations that Chevron benefited from alleged US spying of Petrobras. 鈥淭here are definitely going to be a lot of political sensitivities if an American company wins. It will call into question whether the American company had privileged information.鈥�

Boeing also appeared, until recently, the favorite to win a $4 billion contract to sell 36 F-18 fighter jets to the Brazilian Air Force, although Brazilian officials have now said the country cannot buy such strategic aircraft from a country it cannot trust. 鈥淓ven if Brazil had made a decision to buy from Boeing, they weren鈥檛 going to announce it now,鈥� says Castro Neves. 鈥淭he best scenario is that they postpone this.鈥�

Brazilian business may also be hurt, according to Marques Moses, a professor of international relations at the School of Sociology and Politics in S茫o Paulo. He told local newspaper O Estado that strained relations would impact everything , which is Brazil鈥檚 largest trade partner after China.聽

More to come?

Rousseff鈥檚 visit to Washington is still expected to happen, eventually. The careful timing and phrasing of yesterday鈥檚 press releases 颅鈥� and use of the word 鈥減ostponed鈥� instead of 鈥渃anceled鈥� 鈥� are reason to believe both leaders seek to contain the fallout and will reschedule the visit in coming months, analysts agree. Rousseff鈥檚 office said in its press release that once the allegations are settled the state visit 鈥渨ill take place as soon as possible.鈥� The White House said Obama still welcomed Rousseff

Castro Neves also sees relations mending relatively quickly 鈥� unless Globo TV has more to reveal from Snowden about the US spying program.聽

鈥淚n the near-term we鈥檒l see heightened tensions but I don鈥檛 see relations derailing altogether, barring new information surfacing,鈥� he says.聽