海角大神

Across Venezuela, Latin America, and even the globe, everyone is asking: when will Venezuelan President Hugo Ch谩vez return to power, and if he doesn't, what's next?

The country's longtime leader was supposed to be inaugurated yesterday, but could not be sworn in because he remained in Cuba, where he is recovering from surgery. Instead, his allies聽rallied around the presidential palace聽to show support for the ailing head of state, who won a fourth term in October. Meanwhile, the opposition declared the postponement illegal (see聽our briefing on the constitutional debate).

Now supporters have gone home, and Mr. Ch谩vez is still considered the president of Venezuela, according to a Supreme Court ruling that says he can聽take oath when he is well enough. Still in doubt, however, are Ch谩vez's chances for聽recovery and what the recent health scare means for the "socialist revolution" that has been the hallmark of his administration.

For the past 14 years, Ch谩vez has led a leftist faction across Latin America, and while his health and vacillations in oil prices and production have weakened his international clout in recent years, he remains the region's leftist figurehead.

If he is unable to return, who will take his place?

Many analysts say that it won鈥檛 be a Venezuelan leader 鈥� neither Vice President Nicolas Maduro, who Ch谩vez said would be his preferred candidate if he were unable to lead the nation, nor opposition leader Henrique Capriles, fits the bill. The former lacks the charisma, the latter the desire. Ricardo Sucre, a political analyst in Caracas, says that to take Ch谩vez's place, one needs charm, wealth, and the will to lead. No leader in Latin America ticks all those boxes, he says.聽

鈥淐h谩vez is Ch谩vez,鈥� he says. 鈥淰enezuela became a reference point for leftism in the world because there were the conditions to do so ... It鈥檚 not something that is easily transferable.鈥�

The Argentine Ch谩vez?

On the busy streets of Buenos Aires, supporters of Cristina Fern谩ndez de Kirchner, the nation鈥檚 fiery president, say that she could be poised to take up the leftist flag in Latin America if Ch谩vez is unable to return to office.

Ch谩vez regularly praises Ms. Kirchner's late husband and predecessor, N茅stor Kirchner, who made a stand against the IMF and the neoliberal policies of the so-called "Washington consensus" when he came to power in 2003. Kirchner has pursued those left-wing model with nationalizations, extensive welfare programs, and a controversial law that seeks to end media monopolies.

Mr. Kirchner's 2010 death triggered a mass outpouring of grief and and propelled his widow to re-election in 2011. Her aggressive rhetoric intensified in recent months as she condemned an American judge's ruling that her government should pay holdout creditors from Argentina's 2002 default, calling it "legal colonialism." (For more on that story, see: New York judge's ruling sparks nationalist surge in Argentina.) Domestically, she has accused the judiciary of representing the interests of corporations.

"There's no better candidate for the position than Kirchner," says Mar铆a Castex, a translator from Buenos Aires. "She shares a lot of Ch谩vez's ideals and has that strong character. She's omnipresent in our lives."聽

"It's possible that Kirchner could take on Ch谩vez's role, but she would have to project herself more at a regional level," says Leo Cristiani, a student from Buenos Aires.

Indeed, there are checks to her power, including term limits on her presidency, which ends in 2015. Government officials have indicated she will look to remove that limit through constitutional reform, but that would require her to win two-thirds of Congress in October's legislative elections, an unlikely outcome.

"Ch谩vez and [N茅stor] Kirchner began the Pink Tide and [Ch谩vez's] death would be another huge blow to the region," says Mart铆n Alalu, a political analyst at the University of Buenos Aires. "Fern谩ndez [de Kirchner] has the populist discourse, but she hits her term limit in 2015." 聽

"Kirchnerism is trying to copy some of the formulas of聽chavismo, but it's being halted," says Colette Capriles, a political analyst at the Sim贸n Bol铆var University in Caracas, referring to recent social unrest and an ongoing battle with the courts over the media law.

Other choices聽

Mr. Alalu says that Rafael Correa in Ecuador, perhaps the most charismatic of the current Latin American leaders, is the natural successor of Ch谩vez. 鈥淗e has Ch谩vez's antagonistic, anti-American discourse, oil reserves, and a leadership style that promotes a plebiscitary democracy," he says, referring to the 2009 referendum in Venezuela to remove presidential term limits and the 2008 vote to reform Ecuador's constitution.

But his 鈥渙il wealth鈥� does not compare to that of Venezuela, says Mr. Sucre. The only leader who might possibly have the economic might to lead the left is Brazil鈥檚 Dilma Rousseff, he says, but, unlike her predecessor, Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva,聽she has shown little interest in being a leftist figurehead,.

Ch谩vez's most loyal allies are recipients of his oil wealth, and there are many internal differences among them. Ms. Capriles says the idea of solidarity between the left-leaning countries in the region, formalized during the 2005 Summit of the Americas in Argentina, is a myth. "There's no ideological union," she says. "The other countries are simply beneficiaries of Ch谩vez's financial support."

Subsequently, she says, the leaders of a post-Ch谩vez Latin America will not be concerned about who replaces him as a figurehead, but how to maintain close relations.

Ch谩vez, for example, bought up Argentine debt in 2005, helping the first President Kirchner pay off $10 billion to the IMF, and continued to lend. "Argentina will always be at Venezuela's side," says Rafael Follonier, an Argentine government official sent to Havana and believed to be close to Ch谩vez's inner circle. "Its government's stability is important for ... South American integration."聽

That might change in a post-Ch谩vez climate.

鈥淰enezuela acquired unexpected political significance thanks to the popular leadership of Hugo Ch谩vez, who crossed Venezuelan borders鈥� with the help of oil prices, says Julio Burdman, head of politics and international relations at the University of Belgrano in Buenos Aires. 鈥淏ut it鈥檚 a small country in other respects.鈥� Without Ch谩vez as protagonist, he says, the exterior relations of Venezuela could change.聽

That is something that many Venezuelans agree with. "There's nobody like Ch谩vez," says Kei Campbell, a lawyer from Caracas. "He has the talent of being able to move and convince the masses. [Vice President] Maduro doesn't have that, nor 鈥� anybody else."