海角大神

The government of Hugo Ch谩vez has, for the first time, characterized the Venezuelan leader鈥檚 health condition as 鈥渟evere鈥� following his Dec. 11 surgery in Cuba for a recurrence of cancer.

But the announcement Thursday night is unlikely to put an end to the rumor mill that has swirled in the past three weeks in the Andean country.

While everyone is worked up over President Ch谩vez's health status, his administration is not necessarily an anomaly in keeping relatively mum. From dictators who are unable to envision their countries without them at the helm, to leaders of western democracies who attempt to pursue political projects despite medical setbacks, secrecy is often the norm.

鈥淚t is a long-standing pattern,鈥� says Jerrold Post, who co-wrote "When Illness听Strikes the Leader: The Dilemma of the Captive King" and is director of the political psychology program at George Washington University.

'Tell us the truth'

Norm or not, the lack of news has kept people talking. Type in , or #TellUsTheTruthAboutChavez, and the trending Twitter topic reveals the state of speculation that has become the state of Venezuela since Ch谩vez traveled to Havana for treatment last month.

No one has heard from him since.

He鈥檚 fine.听He鈥檚 dead. He鈥檚 in a coma. He鈥檚 on life support. He鈥檚 recovering. You name it 鈥� any scenario you wish to believe has been posited. And that鈥檚 largely because no one knows. Since Ch谩vez first announced he was ill, in 2011, no medical report has detailed exactly what he faces or what his prognosis is. The government has said that it is keeping the public informed of his health status, as the president himself wishes, but in reality their reports have raised more questions than answers, even as they accuse the opposition of spreading rumors in a form of 鈥減sychological war.鈥�

The opposition, for their part, is outraged, demanding more specificity, that the Venezuelan people be told the 鈥渨hole truth鈥� of the status of the country鈥檚 leader.

What does secrecy tell us?

From former US presidents Ronald Reagan to Franklin Roosevelt, the states of health of leaders was carefully curated by administrations. In one oft-cited case, French President Francois Mitterrand hid his cancer diagnosis from the public for over a decade before being forced to step down. 鈥淵et every year the doctor dutifully said he was in fine health,鈥� says Dr. Post.

In some cases the secrecy reflects different historical social mores about privacy and the public's right to information. And in many cases it was also an effort not to minimize a leader鈥檚 mandate.

But in an age of social media, such secrecy is not tolerated 鈥� or even possible. The recent health statuses of other Latin American leaders facing illness, for example, including the presidents of Paraguay and Brazil, have been promptly released to the public.

In fact, Pedro Burelli, a former member of the executive board of Petr贸leos de Venezuela and today a political analyst in Washington who is critical of Ch谩vez, says that the leader chose treatment in Cuba, where there is no free press, for the guarantee of secrecy.

鈥淭he natural tendency would have been for him to go to Brazil,鈥� Mr. Burelli says, as it boasts among the best cancer treatment centers in Latin America. It鈥檚 also where other leaders in the region have been treated.

But in a democracy with a robust press, Burelli says, 鈥淐h谩vez feared that information [about his condition] would filter out.鈥� Instead, he chose "sub-optimal care" in Cuba, in Burelli鈥檚 opinion, in order to keep his medical condition tightly concealed.

Imagining the future

In fact, Fidel Castro temporarily stepped down in 2006 and permanently in 2008, after his own health crisis was disclosed only as an intestinal problem and has been a 鈥渟tate secret鈥� ever since. Over the years, Twitter has alighted with speculation of his health, especially after a long period out of the spotlight. Inevitably he has appeared again, either on television or with his name on a written column in the state-run Granma newspaper.

Mr. Pope says that in the case of leaders such as Castro or Ch谩vez, the secrecy is linked to an inability to imagine their countries without them. 鈥淲e are talking about [an individual], who has totally entwined his own identity with that of Venezuela,鈥� Pope says.

It is possible that the newest announcement on Ch谩vez鈥檚 health status by Venezuela鈥檚 Minister of Communication and Information, Ernesto Villegas, represents a move toward transparency on the part of the government. But now Venezuelans are speculating why he made the announcement. And he also failed to mention the scheduled Jan. 10 inauguration of Ch谩vez, who won a fourth term in office in Oct. 7 elections.

Instead, Mr. Villegas condemned the "psychological war unleashed by transnational media about the health of the Head of State, with the ultimate goal of destabilizing the Bolivarian Republic of Venezuela,鈥� he said.

Twitter accounts are likely to stay as active, and as speculative, until the government gives more clarity.