Somalia rallies grassroots to oppose jihadist Al Shabab. Will it work?
| MOGADISHU, Somalia
Set in the middle of no man鈥檚 land, the desert village of Qoryaale had no presence of Somalia security forces, and Islamist Al Shabab militants were very close by.
Which is why Somali parliament member Malik Abdalla 鈥� driven to act by images of Al Shabab atrocities against civilians,听and armed with the new Somali government鈥檚 determination to wage 鈥渢otal war鈥� against the jihadis 鈥撎齱ent there in early October.
His aim: to mobilize local clans to join the most serious effort to date to take on the Islamists and end their 15-year insurgency by fighting alongside the Somali National Army (SNA) and American-trained Somali Special Forces.
Why We Wrote This
A story focused onSomalia has made surprising progress in its campaign against Al Shabab. Convincing its people that the jihadis are the enemy hasn鈥檛 been hard. The challenge is maintaining unity and solidifying territorial gains.
Using what he says was a loud voice, Mr. Abdalla called on village residents to bring out their guns听and听to overcome their suspicions after decades of government neglect, in a country beset by constant conflict and multiple droughts.
It was time to embrace cooperation and to fight back, he says he told them: 鈥淲e cannot accept evil people telling us, 鈥榃e will rule over you, and if you refuse, we will blow everything up.鈥欌��
Mr. Abdalla recalls that 鈥渟ome came out, and some were afraid.鈥� And there were some younger, curious onlookers. 鈥淚 told the children: 鈥楪o tell your parents to come out,鈥欌�� he says.
Carrying just an AK-47 assault rifle, and with some of the new recruits, Mr. Abdalla says he set up a defensive line on the edge of the village and vowed to wait. Overnight, some residents sneaked out to speak to him.
Putting differences aside
It wasn鈥檛 difficult to convince them that Al Shabab was the enemy, he recalls. Still fresh is an incident from a few years ago when a dozen militants came to the village, killed two men, and dragged the bodies behind their vehicles.
But it was a challenge to听persuade听the locals to stand up and cooperate, and听to convince them听that Mr. Abdalla鈥檚 promise represented genuine official support. They told him that they did not need money, food, or weapons 鈥撎齩nly ammunition.
Videos online illustrate what was his winning argument to the villagers, as he tells fellow听Somalis to set aside their clan differences and champion the fight against their common enemy.
Within four days, he had mobilized a local militia force that would grow to 600 men and women, opened a new front against Al Shabab, and demonstrated why the combined strength of Somali security units and clan militias have now recaptured more territory from Al Shabab in five months than in the previous five years.
鈥淚t is very motivating, because it is the first time that the Somali people can witness and see that the terrorists can be beaten, and can be defeated,鈥� says Mr. Abdalla, a dual U.S.-Somali citizen with two degrees from The Ohio State University whose success at recruiting clan militias听has become a replicated model.
鈥淚t鈥檚 a momentum that the government needs to take advantage of,鈥� says Mr. Abdalla. 鈥淣o matter if you are a big clan, or a small clan, you are a victim in your own country, you are a hostage in your own country.鈥�
He notes increasing reports of violence by Al Shabab in south-central Somalia, including听the听burning of villages and听destruction of听water wells critical to survival after four failed rainy seasons. In response to the offensive, Al Shabab has also mounted attacks in major cities.
After a deadly hotel siege in Mogadishu in late August left more than 20 people dead, for example, Somali President Hassan Sheikh Mohamud declared 鈥渢otal war鈥� against the Al Qaeda franchise. A听double suicide car bomb听in Mogadishu in late October also claimed more than 220 lives, among other complex attacks.
鈥淭hey have reached their end,鈥� says Mr. Abdalla. 鈥淭hey have shown that, even if you don鈥檛 fight them, they still will kill you.鈥�
New government鈥檚 priority
The turnaround began in May, when President Mohamud took office and vowed to prioritize the fight against Al Shabab, despite looming humanitarian crises听鈥� including the worst drought in 40 years 鈥� that have left 7.8听million Somalis, nearly half the population, facing 鈥渁cute food shortages,鈥� according to the United Nations.
From July, government army units 鈥� spearheaded by the U.S.-trained Danab, or 鈥淟ightning,鈥� Special Forces 鈥� have been joined by an ever-increasing number of mobilized clan militias, known locally as 尘补鈥檃飞颈颈蝉濒别测, to jointly take on Al Shabab. The offensives have been backed by American and Turkish close air support and drone attacks, and African Union helicopter medical evacuations.
The speed and scale of success so far has surprised Somalis and analysts alike, but also raised questions about holding recaptured territory, maintaining momentum, and even the future potential danger of reinvigorating clan militias.
鈥淰ictory begets victory,鈥� says a Western security official in Mogadishu, who asked not to be further identified because he was not authorized to speak to the press.
鈥淲hat we are seeing here is a totally new approach鈥� after 10 years in which the Somali federal government 鈥渢ended to have more static operations鈥� against Al Shabab, says the security official.
A catalyst for the strategy of enlisting clans came in June, he says, when the governor of Hiraan province grew fed up with Al Shabab probing near the city of Beled Weyne and mobilized the Hawadle clan to join the SNA to fight.
Another trigger came in early September, when Al Shabab stopped a humanitarian convoy of eight or nine trucks, burned the charitable donations gathered by one town to give to another, and singled out and executed a still undetermined number of Hawadle men, women, and children.
It was images of those killings that helped galvanize Mr. Abdalla鈥檚 decision to act, strengthening the government鈥檚 response, along with many Somali clans that had had enough.
Al Shabab鈥檚 鈥渕essage鈥�
This week the government-aligned forces recaptured the strategic city of Adan Yabaal, with its Al Shabab base, 150 miles north of Mogadishu. President Mohamud praised 鈥渋mportant victories,鈥� noting that Al Shabab is being 鈥渄efeated in direct combat.鈥�
鈥淭he SNA are probably feeling quite empowered, because these are the first large-scale, brigade-plus type of operations that they have done, and they have clearly had some successes,鈥� says the Western security official.
But he notes that recaptured areas are not often held and developed, so security and humanitarian access has often barely improved. And Al Shabab has responded by hitting听government recruiting centers and barracks, as well as听bridges and telecommunications infrastructure, making it harder to move supplies.
鈥淚t is [Al Shabab] sending a message to the clans, 鈥楧on鈥檛 mess with us, or we鈥檒l get back at you. 鈥� Don鈥檛 think we are on the back foot, we鈥檙e still a threat 鈥� we can still do what we want, when we want,鈥欌�� says the security official. 鈥淭here is a lot of [government] momentum to be maintained.鈥�
And that is what Somali officials say they are determined to do, by directly taking on Al Shabab after what, by all accounts, was a five-year gap in pressuring the group by the previous government, from 2017 to 2022.
The previous administration 鈥渁ccepted cohabitation鈥� with Al Shabab, says Hussein Sheikh Moalim, the national security adviser to the president. The result was a richer and 鈥渕uch more powerful enemy,鈥� he says.
Nevertheless, he predicts, perhaps boldly, that Al Shabab will no longer hold any territory in Somalia within 18 months.
鈥淲e have studied Al Shabab and their weakness,鈥� says Mr. Moalim. 鈥淭hey put all their emphasis on coercion, and not on winning hearts and minds.鈥�
There had been some clan resistance to Al Shabab in recent years, he says, but it fizzled without government support. That is changing.
鈥淔or [the jihadist] insurgents to survive 鈥� the population has to believe in the cause they are fighting for, which has not existed for a very long time,鈥� says Mr. Moalim.
鈥淥ur new strategy is to use the public against them, which is now working,鈥� he says. 鈥淚n a very short period, and with very little [government] resources, Al Shabab has been losing ground, day after day.鈥�
Beyond people鈥檚 limits
The growing popular backlash could have devastating consequences for Al Shabab, which portrays its fight as a religious duty to impose their strict interpretation of Islamic law across Somalia.
鈥淚t鈥檚 very simple: Al Shabab has taken extreme measures to pressure the community; they have been squeezing, squeezing, squeezing,鈥� says Abdisalam Guled, the former deputy director of intelligence for Somalia.
鈥淚 think they went beyond limits that people can tolerate,鈥� he says. Local communities are now 鈥渄esperate鈥� and have weapons, after years of lawlessness. Besides ammunition, 鈥渢he only thing missing was the enthusiastic moral support of the government.鈥�
That support has created the most potent, unified anti-Shabab force ever to confront the jihadis.
鈥淎l Shabab will fight back in Mogadishu, which is the most vulnerable,鈥� says Mr. Guled. 鈥淭hey will make civilians suffer, and make the government feel it.鈥�
Limiting that impact is the aim of Somali officials, who say they are already working on post-Shabab stabilization plans that include providing local governance and preventing a resurgence of clan rivalries that underpinned previous decades of conflict.
鈥淭here is a community uprising鈥� against Al Shabab, says Abdirahman Abdishakur Warsame, the president鈥檚 envoy for drought response. 鈥淭his war will give us ownership of Somalia.鈥�
