Mamdani is favored to win New York鈥檚 mayoral race. The hard part comes next.
| New York
鈥淲hat鈥檚 going on here?鈥� asks a New Yorker named Joey, surveying the crowd and cameras stuffed inside McCaffrey Playground in the Hell鈥檚 Kitchen neighborhood on Manhattan鈥檚 West Side. Taking in the people climbing children鈥檚 play equipment for a better look, he guesses there must be a famous actor doing a movie shoot. This is New York City, after all.
At the center of the scrum on this late October evening, however, is no Hollywood celebrity but New York Assemblyman Zohran Mamdani, the once unknown thirty-something who now stands on the precipice of becoming mayor of the largest city in the United States. When Joey learns this, he ducks inside the playground to join the crowd. He had actually been on his way to cast an early vote for Mr. Mamdani. But that can wait. The man of the moment is here.
Mr. Mamdani, who exploded onto the national political scene after besting incumbent Mayor Eric Adams and former New York Gov. Andrew Cuomo in the city鈥檚 June Democratic primary, is widely expected to win the general election on Tuesday. Most polls have him leading Mr. Cuomo, who is now running as an independent, and Republican nominee Curtis Sliwa . (Mr. Adams, who was also running as an independent, dropped out of the race in September.) A three-term state legislator who identifies as a democratic socialist, Mr. Mamdani has electrified young people and left-leaning voters with an affordability-centered campaign that promises to freeze rents for rent-stabilized apartments, make city buses free, and provide free childcare for all New York City children between the ages of 6 weeks and 5 years. He says he would pay for these programs by raising taxes on corporations and the wealthy.
Why We Wrote This
Zohran Mamdani, who heads into Election Day with a commanding lead, could be the first New York mayor in more than half a century who didn鈥檛 win an outright majority. And New York is a place where it鈥檚 difficult to implement big changes.
In Mr. Mamdani, supporters see a skilled and authentic political talent whose winning messages and viral, online content are showing Democrats how to win young and disaffected voters heading into the 2026 midterm elections. Opponents, both Democratic and Republican, say a Mayor Mamdani will be a high-profile political liability in a country largely made up of , where socialism is viewed favorably by .
鈥淭hey鈥檙e making Mamdani a mainstream Democrat now,鈥� Republican U.S. House Speaker Mike Johnson said in a press conference , adding that every Democrat running for Congress next year should be asked about Mr. Mamdani and his positions. 鈥淢amdani is a gift for [President Donald Trump],鈥� echoed Mr. Cuomo . 鈥淕oing into the midterms, he will take a picture of Mamdani and run around the country and say 鈥楬ere is what happened to the Democrats. They are now communists.鈥欌�� (Mr. Mamdani has had to clarify in interviews that he is , despite GOP claims.)
It鈥檚 not hyperbole to say that, if he is elected mayor on Tuesday, the fate of the entire party could to some extent rest on Mr. Mamdani鈥檚 shoulders 鈥� and whether he succeeds or fails.
Underscoring the stakes, many Democratic Party leaders have been walking a delicate balancing act, praising Mr. Mamdani while also keeping him at arm鈥檚 length. Senate Minority Leader Chuck Schumer of New York has not endorsed him 鈥� instead telling reporters, when pressed, that they are 鈥渃ontinuing to talk.鈥� And after skirting the same endorsement question for weeks, House Minority Leader Hakeem Jeffries, also of New York, said on the eve of the first day of early voting that he would support Mr. Mamdani along with 鈥渢he entire citywide Democratic ticket.鈥�
Former President Barack Obama, who also has not publicly endorsed Mr. Mamdani, called the mayoral candidate over the weekend, , to say his campaign has been 鈥渋mpressive to watch,鈥� and offered to be a 鈥渟ounding board鈥� in the future. On the same weekend as the call, which Mr Obama鈥檚 team declined to comment on, the former president campaigned with Democratic gubernatorial nominees in Virginia and New Jersey.
鈥淓veryone who cares about government and politics will be watching everything [Mamdani] does,鈥� says Jack O鈥橠onnell, a New York Democratic strategist. 鈥淢an, it鈥檚 going to be a tough job.鈥�
Even enacting his agenda could be a major challenge. Despite his commanding lead, Mr. Mamdani could be the first New York mayor in more than half a century to win , which could undercut any claim to a mandate. And despite being a strongly Democratic city, New York has unique structural challenges that make it difficult to implement big changes 鈥� as the city鈥檚 last progressive mayor, Bill de Blasio, learned.
When Mr. de Blasio first ran for office, he was seen, like Mr. Mamdani, as a radical idealist and a break from politics-as-usual, says Joseph Viteritti, a public policy professor at Hunter College and author of a book about Mr. de Blasio. The book鈥檚 title, 鈥淭he Pragmatist: Bill de Blasio鈥檚 Quest to Save the Soul of New York,鈥� is a nod to how that turned out. 鈥淸Mr. de Blasio] was forced to become a pragmatist 鈥� to figure out what he could do under the circumstances.鈥�
A pendulum swing
New York City mayors are both local and national figures, shaped by 鈥� and in reaction to 鈥� local and national political forces. Mr. de Blasio鈥檚 2013 mayoral campaign focused, like Mr. Mamdani鈥檚, on the city鈥檚 rising inequality. He ran on promises to implement universal prekindergarden, end the police department鈥檚 controversial stop-and-frisk program, and impose higher taxes on New Yorkers .
The former city councilman and public advocate also promised to be a sharp departure from two decades of Republican leadership under Mayors Rudy Giuliani and Michael Bloomberg. A similar pendulum swing followed Mr. de Blasio鈥檚 own tenure. The progressive mayor, who left office with , was succeeded by Eric Adams, a moderate Black Democrat and former police officer who campaigned on the issue of crime.
Mr. Adams鈥� election came during the COVID-19 crime spike, when Americans across the country became more concerned with public safety, and Democratic officials began distancing themselves from the 鈥渄efund the police鈥� message some had adopted in the wake of George Floyd鈥檚 murder and the Black Lives Matter protests. Mr. Mamdani, who once called for defunding the police, has for past comments calling the force 鈥渞acist, anti-queer鈥� and 鈥渁 major threat鈥� to safety.
During this year鈥檚 Democratic primary in New York it was a different national issue 鈥� the war in Gaza 鈥� that energized many voters, particularly younger ones who have been frustrated with Democratic leaders鈥� support for Israel.
Mr. Mamdani, a practicing Muslim and longtime advocate for the Palestinian people, has called the war in Gaza a and pledged to arrest Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu if he comes to New York. His primary victory was propelled by voters under age 30 who , doubling their numbers from four years earlier. (Since the primary, Mr. Mamdani has said he would 鈥渄iscourage鈥� use of the term 鈥済lobalize the intifada,鈥� which many view as a call to violence against Jewish people.)
鈥淭he national climate is fueling Zohran right now,鈥� says Derek Kitchen, a former member of the Utah Senate and a Biden administration appointee who came to McCaffrey Playground last week to see Mr. Mamdani.
Mr. Kitchen believes Mr. Mamdani could succeed where Mr. de Blasio did not, given the current economic climate, with the high cost of living and AI threatening to wipe out many jobs. 鈥淭here鈥檚 a larger reckoning around structural change 鈥� so it鈥檚 a different mandate for Zohran,鈥� he says. 鈥淲e are in a moment that the whole country, the whole world, is shifting dramatically. ... People like Zohran are catching that moment. De Blasio never had a chance.鈥�
Others, however, predict a brewing conflict between a potential Mamdani and Trump administrations that could stymie the young New York mayor.
鈥淚f you go back to previous mayors who identified as progressive, each one was able to launch progressive policies because they were getting support from progressive presidents in Washington,鈥� says Mr. Viteritti. Mayor Fiorello La Guardia, who had previously , had a good relationship with President Franklin Roosevelt and got large sums of New Deal money for projects like LaGuardia Airport. In the late 1960s, Mayor John Lindsay was appointed by President Lyndon Johnson to help lead a national commission on civil rights and urban unrest.
鈥淒e Blasio didn鈥檛 have that. He had Trump in Washington,鈥� says Mr. Viteritti. Now, 鈥淸Mr. Mamdani] is facing a worse situation with Trump 2.0 in the White House 鈥� because not only is he not supportive, he is hostile to him personally and his agenda.鈥�
The Albany factor
It鈥檚 not just Washington. New York mayors also face an often-complicated relationship with the governor and state legislators in Albany. Mr. de Blasio had planned to pay for universal prekindergarten by imposing a 1% tax on New Yorkers making over $500,000. Upon taking office, he and his team plunged ahead, hiring new teachers, opening new classrooms, and offering enrollment to tens of thousands of students. Mr. Mamdani has cited this accomplishment in .
But New York鈥檚 mayor doesn鈥檛 have the power to raise taxes or impose new ones without the approval of the state lawmakers and governor. And then-Governor Cuomo blocked Mr. de Blasio鈥檚 proposed tax increase.
鈥淭he city is a creature of the state,鈥� says Sidney Davidoff, who was an assistant to former Mayor Lindsay and a friend of Mr. de Blasio鈥檚. He cites an old saying that New York鈥檚 mayor can鈥檛 flush the toilets without the governor鈥檚 permission. 鈥淭he key is to pick your fights and see which ones you really can win.鈥�
Mr. Cuomo eventually found other state funds for the mayor鈥檚 prekindergarten program. But Mr. de Blasio . He cited his election margins 鈥� he won the crowded Democratic primary with of the vote and the general election with almost 鈥� as a clear 鈥渕andate鈥� for the tax.
Still, Albany never allowed Mr. de Blasio to fulfill his tax hike promise. Which could hold a lesson for Mr. Mamdani, who has proposed a 2% tax on New Yorkers making over $1 million. New York Democratic Gov. Kathy Hochul, who waited until September to endorse Mr. Mamdani, has called tax increases a 鈥�.鈥�
鈥淚f de Blasio had spent more time celebrating [prekindergarten] rather than trying to push the ideological side of the wealth tax, he would have had a more successful mayoralty,鈥� says Mr. O鈥橠onnell, the Democratic strategist.
Since winning the Democratic primary, Mr. Mamdani has made efforts to reassure mainstream Democrats, meeting with business executives and other powerful interests, and has suggested flexibility on some of his positions. He told the New York Times Daily podcast that he would be open to other funding mechanisms for his proposals (which, by some estimates ), saying that 鈥渇ar more important than the means by which you fund something .鈥� In his last debate, Mr. Mamdani said he would ask New York Police Commissioner Jessica Tisch, who has expressed different views on criminal justice, to stay on.
At McCaffrey Playground in Hell鈥檚 Kitchen, Mr. Mamdani addresses the 100 or so volunteers who have assembled in the park before canvassing potential voters. Then, he turns to the press to offer a sweeping vision of change, with some big-tent touches. He praises former Mayor Bloomberg鈥檚 expansion of park access. He quotes Mr. La Guardia, saying you cannot preach liberty to people in a starving land. He reiterates his well-known proposals on buses, child care, rents, a corporate tax rate to match New Jersey鈥檚 鈥� and throws in another promise, to demonstrate that the value of democracy is 鈥渘ot just as an ideal鈥� but 鈥渋n its ability to deliver on the material needs of working people.鈥�
The job, if he gets it, starts Jan. 1.
