海角大神

For Adam Loi, business has never been better.

As a roving black-market money trader, demand for US dollars have hit a new high as many here in South Sudan's capital lose faith in their own currency.听

Asked if they know someone who can exchange money, Juba residents throw out three听or four options, an indication that traders like Mr. Loi represent a thriving business in a stuttering economy.

Since December, the value of the South Sudanese pound has tumbled by more than 90 percent amid protracted negotiations between President Salvia Kiir and opposition leader Riek Machar over forming a unity government after more than two years of civil war.听Opinion is divided in Juba over whether the negotiations will be successful.

But 鈥媡he 鈥媗ack of proper planning by President Kiir鈥檚 government 鈥� and a global rout in the price of oil, its main export 鈥� means dwindling financial reserves. Now economists are warning听of economic collapse, possibly within weeks, if South Sudan does not receive financial support soon.听

In an interview with the Monitor,听Finance Minister听David Deng Athorbei blamed the financial woes "on a plan for a regime change" from foreign countries听who want to see the fall of the current government. 鈥淚f we run out of dollars then we will have to depend on the South Sudanese pound,鈥澨齭ays Mr. Athorbei.

He听adds that听if the government doesn鈥檛 receive external funding soon, it would likely resort to bartering just to pay government workers.

But without a听unity government 鈥� Mr.听Machar opted out of the initial deadline, citing Kiir's unilateral division of the country into three administrative regions comprising 28 states 鈥� the young nation would not听be eligible for International Monetary Fund or World Bank financing, says the US Ambassador to South Sudan, Mary Catherine Phee.

Financial collapse, analysts say, would severely impact public services, increase food shortage, and exacerbate an already desperate humanitarian situation 鈥� one in five South Sudanese have been been听听by the civil war.听On Monday,听the United Nations warned that almost a quarter of South Sudan鈥檚 population urgently听听food aid; at least 40,000 people are on the brink of catastrophe.听

鈥淚t looks dire and the political system is disintegrating. They usually manage to find some mechanism to get some dollars, by selling off land or calling on friends,鈥澨鼳lex de Waal, the Executive Director of the World Peace Foundation, says via email.

鈥淏ut rock bottom can't be far away.鈥�

'I need work'

Already, locals here in Juba complain that daily expenses have increased two to five times since the听government devalued the local currency in December.听

"Life is very hard right now" one young motorcycle taxis driver says听outside a popular hotel in Juba. Usually the bumpy dirt roads听of Juba are filled with these motorcycle taxis, offering a quick听and听cheap way to navigate the city.听The听gangs of motorcycles now sit listlessly in the shade of buildings, devoid of customers.听

"I have no customers,鈥� another driver chimes in. 鈥淚 need work.鈥�

Supermarket听prices have increased听so听rapidly that owners struggle to update prices quickly enough. Muggings and robberies have skyrocketed. Many complain of cutting down on their meals per day. And the few who can afford a night out are听buying the last bottles of听White Bull, a popular local beer鈥� business听which听recently went out of听business as a result of the currency devaluation.听

鈥淭hey have printed听[South Sudanese pounds]听in excess,鈥澨齭ays Loi, the currency trader,听whose name has been changed.听鈥淭he problem is that because of the prices in the country, everyone is going after dollars, they put it in their pocket because they don鈥檛 know what will happen next.鈥�

Machar recently said that it could take another three weeks to听听the peace deal.听A unity government could end the fighting, but also save the country from economic collapse says Abraham Awolich, Director of Administration and Finance at the Sudd Institute, a think tank in South Sudan.