Is China鈥檚 birthrate slump a sign of global things to come?
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When the Chinese government imposed its one-child policy in 1980, the authorities feared an impending overpopulation disaster. Four decades later, they are worried by the opposite 鈥� the possibility of a population collapse.聽
Last week, China announced a drop in its population for the second year in a row. The government is scrambling to reverse what demographers classify as an 鈥渦ltralow鈥� birthrate nearing one child per woman, less than half the population replacement rate of 2.1 children per woman.
The declining population dilemma is attracting attention around the world. Birthrates are falling on every continent, raising questions about how humanity can and should respond.
Why We Wrote This
Widespread fears of global overpopulation have now turned into concern about a population slump. Is China鈥檚 plunging birthrate a sign of things to come elsewhere?
鈥淚n the long run, if humanity鈥檚 average birthrate goes and stays below two, then the size of the human population will decrease,鈥� says Dean Spears, associate professor of economics at the University of Texas at Austin.聽鈥淭here is no reason to be confident [the trend] is likely to reverse course soon or automatically.鈥�
Almost everywhere, parents are choosing to have fewer children, whether for economic or personal reasons. of the planet鈥檚 population now lives in a region where the fertility rate has fallen below the , from 1.7 in the U.S. to 1.5 in Europe and 1.2 in East Asia.
Birthrates are higher in sub-Saharan Africa, but they are dropping there, too, from 6.8 to 4.6 births per woman since 1980. The has fallen from five births per woman in 1950 to 2.3 in 2021, often driven down by greater economic prosperity and women鈥檚 empowerment.
Demographers expect the world鈥檚 population to peak sometime in the second half of this century. Whether it will then stabilize or plummet is uncertain; if the whole world鈥檚 fertility rate followed the U.S. example, global population could as quickly as it has risen over the past two centuries.
But most experts warn against drawing long-term conclusions, especially those that spell disaster.聽
鈥淭o have lower fertility is not necessarily a negative situation,鈥� says Patrick Gerland, a senior official at the United Nations Population Division. 鈥淚t鈥檚 more, how does society adapt to this new reality?鈥�
For generations, most people have worried about the threat of overpopulation. Books such as 鈥淭he Population Bomb,鈥� published in 1968, warned of mass global famine and upheavals caused by a coming population explosion. It was later deemed alarmist and largely inaccurate, which is not to say that countries with the highest birthrates do not still have difficulty meeting their citizens鈥� basic needs.
Lower birthrates lead to different economic dilemmas. Increasing life spans are a sign of global progress. But if fewer children are born and grow up to find jobs, that means there will be fewer working-age individuals to support retirees through traditional pension and healthcare systems. And a smaller pool of innovators and entrepreneurs, as well as consumers, could mean聽 in the future.
Making it easy for couples to raise children may be the best way to encourage them to do so, says Dr. Gerland. He points to France and the Nordic countries as places whose family-friendly policies 鈥� from affordable child care to generous parental leave 鈥� may have helped stabilize, or even slightly increase, fertility rates in recent years.
Raising fertility rates, he says, 鈥渦sually means a lot of social support to families, and especially combining work and family. To do it alone is very difficult.鈥澛犅�
National Bureau of Statistics of China, United Nations聽Department of Economic and Social Affairs
