海角大神

Getting out of Afghanistan wasn鈥檛 just about ending a 鈥渇orever war.鈥� U.S. President Joe Biden has insisted it was essential if America was to confront the true policy challenges of today鈥檚 world 鈥� among them a rising China and climate change.

Now, just days later, he finds himself facing both of these issues at the same time. He is trying to balance a tough line on China 鈥� its autocracy at home and assertive ambitions abroad 鈥� with a bid to win Beijing鈥檚 cooperation in the fight against global warming.

How that juggling act turns out has urgent implications, not just for Washington but for the world. The most important climate change conference since the 2015 Paris Agreement is due to get underway in Glasgow, Scotland, in eight weeks鈥� time. It鈥檚 being billed as a make-or-break moment, and active engagement by China, by far the world鈥檚 largest carbon emitter, will be key.

The early signs have not been encouraging. When Mr. Biden鈥檚 climate envoy, John Kerry, made the case for climate cooperation in China last week, he was given the diplomatic equivalent of an ice bath. The top officials on his schedule 鈥渕et鈥� with him only by video link. And the message they delivered was unequivocal: that climate issues could not be divorced from overall U.S.-China ties, and that Washington is to blame for the chill in that relationship.

This could just be political theater, a high-profile reassertion of Beijing鈥檚 insistence that the 21^st century will belong to China and that the influence of the United States and other Western democracies is waning. By the time of the Glasgow summit we should know how China plans to handle its own climate change juggling act, dealing with competing economic, political, and diplomatic pressures as it decides whether to adopt more ambitious carbon reduction targets.

China remains one of the few countries not to have pledged to reach 鈥渘et zero鈥� carbon emissions by 2050. It鈥檚 aiming instead for 2060.聽 But even that goal may be hard to meet unless the Chinese cut back dramatically on coal-fired power, an issue Mr. Kerry has been driving home.

Sam McNeil/AP/File

Smoke and steam rise from a Chinese coal processing plant. China last year built three times more coal power generating capacity than the rest of the world combined.

The domestic policy calculus for China is pretty clear. Its leaders are perfectly aware of the threat that global warming poses 鈥� not least to their major coastal cities as sea levels rise 鈥� and they are working hard to expand production of clean energy. China is by a wide margin the world鈥檚 biggest builder and consumer of wind power.

But the same leaders continue to make economic growth their overriding goal, and they believe coal is essential to that: last year China also built three times more coal power capacity than the rest of the world combined.

It鈥檚 the diplomatic equation, however, that will matter most in the run-up to Glasgow, the outcome of a delicate diplomatic dance between Washington and Beijing.

While Britain will be hosting the Glasgow conference, it鈥檚 the Americans who have assumed the lead role so far in pressing governments to make the clean energy commitments required for it to succeed.

They鈥檝e seized on last month鈥檚 sobering report by the U.N.鈥檚 Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, and on a devastating increase in floods, droughts, wildfires, and other extreme weather events, to insist that time is running out for concerted international action. Visiting flood-ravaged areas in the U.S. this week, Mr. Biden repeated the IPCC鈥檚 warning: a 鈥渃ode red for humanity.鈥�

The message Mr. Kerry carried to China last week was that 鈥渢he stakes are very high. It鈥檚 not a matter of ideology or politics 鈥� it鈥檚 a matter of mathematics and physics.鈥�

If the Americans are still holding out hope that Chinese leader Xi Jinping will make common cause with them, part of the reason may be that there is a precedent.

In Beijing in 2014, after months of quiet negotiations, Mr. Xi and Mr. Obama announced a joint climate change commitment that opened the way to global agreement at the Paris conference a year later.

Yet the bilateral atmosphere is far colder now. Political theater or not, Beijing鈥檚 treatment of Mr. Kerry reflected China鈥檚 genuine reluctance to appear to bow to U.S. pressure or to hand Washington a diplomatic victory.

China also has a substantive concern: whether America itself will stay the course on climate change, having pulled out of the Paris Agreement under Donald Trump. More immediately, Beijing may be waiting to see whether or not Mr. Biden can live up to his own pledges on climate change by navigating his $3.5 trillion budget plan, replete with climate-friendly measures, through Congress.

Still, there is one reason China might yet decide to commit to more ambitious climate targets: its own political ambition.

The 鈥渕athematics and physics,鈥� in Mr. Kerry鈥檚 words, are no longer in doubt: there鈥檚 an international consensus that without far tighter, binding clean energy targets, there鈥檚 no way to reach Paris鈥� goal of keeping global warming in check.

If Beijing is looking for a way to further its burgeoning aspirations of global leadership, stepping up as a standard-bearer on an issue of such overwhelming importance to the planet might be an attractive option.