海角大神

David Stockman, who served as President Reagan鈥檚 budget director, has liberal economists like Paul Krugman and Jared Bernstein in an uproar over his new book, 鈥淭he Great Deformation,鈥� that will be released Tuesday.

Mr. Stockman, who left government for a lucrative tour on Wall Street, has done what every author wants: get people talking about a forthcoming book. He summarized his grim diagnosis of the US economy in an essay which covered three quarters of the front page of The New York Times鈥檚 . The piece is likely to have a much wider audience than the relative handful who plow through a 768 page book weighing in at more than two pounds.

鈥淲e should be very afraid,鈥� the first paragraph of Stockman鈥檚 essay concludes. Don鈥檛 be misled by the stock market鈥檚 recent record high, Stockman argues. The recovery has been fueled by 鈥渁n egregious flood of phony money from the Federal Reserve鈥� and the bubble will burst leading to 鈥渁n era of zero sum austerity and virulent political conflict.鈥�

Bottom line, Stockman contends: 鈥淲hen the latest bubble pops, there will be nothing to stop the collapse. If this sounds like advice to get out of the market and hide out in case, it is.鈥�

Princeton economics professor Paul Krugman, who won the 2008 Nobel Prize in economics, was dismissive. On his Mr. Krugman wrote: 鈥淚 was disappointed in Stockman鈥檚 piece. I thought there would be some kind of real argument, some presentation, however tendentious, of evidence. Instead it鈥檚 just a series of gee-whiz, context- and model-free numbers embedded in a rant 鈥� and not even an interesting rant. It鈥檚 cranky old man stuff鈥︹��

Krugman, a New York Times op-ed columnist, found himself implicitly criticizing his journalistic home, noting 鈥渢he verdict among everyone who knows anything is that Stockman鈥檚 piece, mysteriously given star treatment, was pathetic and embarrassing.鈥� Krugman said he was "especially annoyed" by Stockman's argument that there has been bipartisan runaway spending since the 1950s. Significant debt problems started after 1980 under Presidents Reagan and George H.W. Bush, Krugman says, and fell under President Clinton. And deficits were an appropriate reaction to the recent financial crisis, he says. 聽

Others offered somewhat less passionate criticism. Jared Bernstein, who served as Vice President Joe Biden鈥檚 economic adviser, wrote on his : "There鈥檚 no question that the American economy is seriously underperforming and that bad policy is implicated. It鈥檚 just that the culprits aren鈥檛 the ones he thinks they are.鈥�

Mr. Bernstein especially took exception to Stockman鈥檚 criticism of 鈥渆ight decades of increasingly frenetic fiscal and monetary policy activism intended to counter the cyclical bumps and grinds of the free market.鈥�

Stockman fails to differentiate 鈥渟mart borrowing from wasteful borrowing,鈥� Bernstein argues. 鈥淗is blanket condemnation is nonsensical 鈥� I suspect most readers will react the way I did: it鈥檚 like hearing a crazy person on a street corner ranting against whatever: they invariably stumble on some profound and piercing insights, but it鈥檚 mostly nonsense, and instinctually, we keep our heads down and move on.鈥�

The observes that Stockman has a reputation as a pessimist. It quotes Reagan economic policy adviser Martin Anderson in his book "Revolution鈥� as saying: 鈥淒avid Stockman was profoundly pessimistic by nature. If he were ever to write a history of American baseball, he would probably describe Ted Williams of the Boston Red Sox, one of the greatest players of all time, this way: Even at the height of his career, Williams managed to get base hits only 40 percent of the time and struck out repeatedly.鈥�

A more even-handed view of Stockman鈥檚 arguments comes from Marcus Brauchli, the former top editor at both The Wall Street Journal and The Washington Post. Writing in , Mr. Brauchli notes that Stockman 鈥渉as cast his acid eye on the country鈥檚 entire economic edifice. What the former divinity student sees doesn鈥檛 merely dismay, it outrages him morally, page after page, chapter after chapter."

Still, Brauchli observes, "Even as he indulges his spleen, Stockman produces a persuasive and deeply relevant indictment of a system dangerously akilter."