海角大神

Amid deep US political division, pollsters see room for optimism

At a Monitor Zoom Breakfast, authors of Civility Poll report 58% of Americans are 鈥渙ptimistic about the future because young people are committed to making this country a better place to live for everyone.鈥

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Michael Bonfigli/海角大神
Republican pollster Ed Goeas, right, listens to Democratic pollster Celinda Lake, left, at 海角大神 Breakfast at the St. Regis Hotel on December 18, 2014 in Washington, D.C. The two pollsters unveiled their latest Battleground Civility Poll at a virtual Monitor Breakfast on Feb. 3, 2022.

First, the bad news: Partisan divisions in the United States remain high, with two-thirds of voters saying politics has become less civil since the start of the pandemic.听

And despite President Joe Biden鈥檚 Inauguration Day promise to unify the country, 43% of voters say American politics has become less civil since he took office, with only 29% saying it has become more civil, according to the latest 听

But at a Monitor Zoom Breakfast with reporters Thursday, the bipartisan authors of the poll were quick to highlight a hopeful sign: More than half of Americans 鈥 58% 鈥 say they鈥檙e 鈥渙ptimistic about the future because young people are committed to making this country a better place to live for everyone.鈥

鈥淲e do see astounding levels of fear about division,鈥 said Democratic pollster Celinda Lake, who has produced Battleground Polls with Republican pollster Ed Goeas since 1991. But, she added, 鈥測oung people and older people and Democrats and people of color are incredibly optimistic about what youth can bring to the country.鈥

Mr. Goeas said he was 鈥渧ery optimistic that there鈥檚 going to be opportunities in the future to move this country to being more civil and believing in a more civil future.鈥

But, he warned, 鈥渨e have to get out of this kind of trap we鈥檝e fallen into of gotcha politics with the media, quite frankly, and also gotcha politics between Republicans and Democrats in their campaigns.鈥

And it鈥檚 worth noting that there were strong partisan differences among respondents on optimism about the future. Overall, 82% of Democrats, 51% of independents, and only 34% of Republicans agreed with the statement about being 鈥渙ptimistic about the future.鈥

Republicans and Democrats display striking differences even in the values they emphasize. For Republicans, the top choice, at 54%, was freedom, while only 13% of Democrats made that their top choice. Among Democrats, 31% said responsibility, followed by 25% who said respect.听

鈥淵ou see how it鈥檚 playing out in the national debate over COVID response,鈥 said Mo Elleithee, executive director of the Georgetown Institute of Politics and Public Service, which sponsors the Battleground Civility Poll. 鈥淭he top two values - and there鈥檚 a huge partisan divide - are freedom and responsibility, with Republicans gravitating towards freedom and Democrats gravitating towards responsibility.鈥

One of the most eye-popping elements of the Civility Poll is the question asking respondents to rate the level of political division in the U.S., with zero meaning no division and 100 meaning 鈥渢he edge of civil war.鈥 The average response in the latest poll was 70.6.听

When Ms. Lake and Mr. Goeas did their first Civility Poll in April 2019, the average response to that question came in at 70.81.听

鈥淲e were flabbergasted at how high the numbers were, that people thought we were on our way to civil war and that that has persisted during all of the Trump years and into the Biden administration,鈥 Ms. Lake says. 鈥淎nd of course, January 6th [2021] really reinforcing that notion 鈥 it鈥檚 hard to express how high these numbers are.鈥

In the January 2021 Civility Poll, which was in the field when rioters stormed the U.S. Capitol, the responses on the 鈥渃ivil war鈥 question averaged 76 鈥 a high for the six Civility Polls to date.听

鈥淭he youth are slightly more optimistic,鈥 Ms. Lake says, discussing the latest Civility Poll. 鈥淏ut really across the board, there鈥檚 one thing that America is united about, and that is how divided we are.鈥

The recording of our Monitor Zoom Breakfast with Ms. Lake, Mr. Goeas, and Mr. Elleithee can be viewed below.

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