After rocky start, can Biden recover in Year Two?
| Washington
On this day a year ago, America turned the page from a most controversial president and toward a familiar face 鈥� one who many hoped could bring the nation together amid profound challenges.聽
President Joe Biden centered his inaugural address on the theme of unity. A year later, the nation is as divided as ever, at least in modern times, and the challenges are just as acute: the pandemic, inflation, climate change, threats from major global adversaries. The new chief executive鈥檚 public approval has tanked.聽
Can President Biden turn his fortunes around? His press conference Wednesday 鈥� a nearly two-hour marathon, aimed at both defending his performance and launching a reset 鈥� was a mixed bag. His eyebrow-raising , saying he expected Russia to invade, merited from his press office and a聽聽himself on Thursday.聽His murky pronouncement on the legitimacy of coming elections, if voting rights legislation doesn鈥檛 pass, also sparked聽
Why We Wrote This
The American presidency often involves major on-the-job training, as Joe Biden is learning. Despite historic challenges and a polarized electorate, experts say it鈥檚 not too late for the president to turn things around.
But his willingness to change course on a stalled agenda, as well as his display of stamina, was also reassuring to some.聽
Mr. Biden鈥檚 challenge is steep, particularly in these highly polarized times, analysts say. But many other first-year presidents have struggled 鈥� and watched their party get trounced in midterm elections 鈥� only to recover and win reelection.聽
Mr. Biden鈥檚 task is multifold. He needs to log demonstrable successes, especially in the battle against COVID-19 and in the economy; avoid foreign policy disasters; and strengthen his public image.聽
His first year, like the press conference, produced mixed results. The economy鈥檚 recovery of jobs lost to the pandemic was strong, and聽early on, he implemented two major programs. In March, passage of the $1.9 trillion American Rescue Plan provided funding for vaccines, schools, small businesses, and anti-poverty programs. And his administration launched a hailed for its speed and wide availability to those who chose to vaccinate.聽
鈥淭hey got off to a really strong start,鈥� says William Galston, a domestic policy adviser under President Bill Clinton. 鈥淭hat may have convinced them that they just had to keep on going, and all would be well. Well, they kept on going and all wasn鈥檛 well.鈥�
Over the summer, the delta variant caused COVID-19 caseloads to surge again. The U.S. withdrawal from Afghanistan was chaotic. Inflation, which the administration initially dismissed as transitory, has grown to a 40-year high. Mr. Biden鈥檚 big spending package, the $2.2 trillion Build Back Better Act, has hit a wall in Congress, as has voting rights legislation the president calls essential to preserving American democracy.聽
When it comes to the pandemic 鈥� arguably the president鈥檚 most pressing challenge 鈥� top federal officials have faced criticism for confusing messaging and not being nimble enough with policy responses. With the omicron variant pushing caseloads to new highs, availability of test kits has lagged demand, as school districts and businesses have struggled to stay open.
鈥淒oing the equivalent of hanging a 鈥楳ission Accomplished鈥� banner over the White House on July 4 weekend was not wise,鈥� says Mr. Galston, a senior fellow at the Brookings Institution.聽
Test kits are about to arrive in homes across the country, courtesy of the federal government; a website that allows every household to order four free kits went live this week. And Mr. Biden is regrouping on his domestic agenda. At Wednesday鈥檚 press conference, he discussed breaking up Build Back Better and passing smaller pieces now 鈥� noting climate change and universal prekindergarten 鈥� then fighting for the rest later.聽
A major bright spot for Mr. Biden in his first year was the November passage of a $1 trillion infrastructure bill, which will bring benefits to Americans across the country with investments in roads, bridges, water pipes, and rural broadband. Significantly, it passed with Republican votes, unlike the American Rescue Plan.聽
Still, the president鈥檚 political capital has plummeted. The Gallup poll鈥檚 first measure of Mr. Biden鈥檚 job approval after taking office came in at 57% 鈥� well above the 51% of votes he won in defeating President Donald Trump. Now Mr. Biden is at 40%. During his first year in office, the president averaged 49% approval, with only President Trump coming in lower (38%) among first-term presidents elected after World War II.聽Gallup also notes that Mr. Biden鈥檚 approval ratings reflect record political polarization for a first-year president.
Mr. Biden still has the muscle memory of a longtime senator who loved working across the aisle, welcoming meetings with members of both parties and speaking highly of Republicans 鈥� even those who have made clear they don鈥檛 want him to succeed.聽
鈥淚 actually like Mitch McConnell,鈥� he said Wednesday, referring to the Senate GOP leader. But, he said later, 鈥渢he public doesn鈥檛 want me to be the 鈥榩resident senator.鈥� They want me to be the president, and let senators be senators.鈥�
It was a reminder that the American presidency is as much a mindset as a job 鈥� and one that involves major on-the-job training, even for a man who served two terms as vice president and 36 years in the Senate before that.聽
Looking ahead, Democratic pollster Celinda Lake predicts Mr. Biden鈥檚 public image will improve 鈥� particularly come spring, when infrastructure projects can start.聽
鈥淚n April and May, it will be a very different ballgame,鈥� says Ms. Lake, who does work for Mr. Biden and the Democratic National Committee. 鈥淩ight now, nobody鈥檚 repairing a bridge or building a highway 鈥� you can鈥檛 do that with snow on the ground in places like Michigan and Wisconsin.鈥�
She ascribes Mr. Biden鈥檚 low job approvals to people feeling upset with the direction of the country, and taking it out on the president.聽
鈥淲e need to communicate better 鈥� as Democrats and as the administration 鈥� the accomplishments that have happened,鈥� she says, while acknowledging that the pandemic and inflation are two 鈥渒itchen table鈥� issues hitting voters every day and dragging the president down.聽
Ms. Lake predicts that the midterm election campaigns now kicking into gear will provide oxygen to the president, as Democrats around the country defend his record.聽
Black voters are a key constituency for Mr. Biden, and keeping that part of his base energized will be crucial. A 聽by Robert C. Smith, a political scientist at San Francisco State University, concluded that the Biden administration has been 鈥渢he most responsive to Black interests since the presidency of Lyndon Johnson.鈥澛�
Even if Mr. Biden fails to pass voting rights legislation, as now seems certain, he needed to be seen trying, Professor Smith says.聽
鈥淎 number of Black voting rights activists thought he wasn鈥檛 aggressive enough鈥� in pushing to eliminate the filibuster in the Senate so the legislation could pass with a simple majority, he says. 鈥淗e had to make that speech [on Jan. 11 in Atlanta] to let them know that he was doing everything he could. And he did.鈥�
Perhaps Mr. Biden鈥檚 biggest unkept campaign promise 鈥� aside from 鈥� is his pledge to unify the country. On its face, it seemed an unrealistic pledge, given the many factors feeding the nation鈥檚 political polarization, from partisan sorting along geographic lines to media echo chambers. There鈥檚 also the Trump effect: a one-term president who has refused to concede his loss, and may well run again, unlike other defeated former presidents in the modern era.聽
鈥淚 don鈥檛 think Biden鈥檚 problems are because he follows Trump,鈥� says Allan Lichtman, a presidential historian at American University. 鈥淎nd polarization didn鈥檛 start with Trump. But he鈥檚 escalated it, and that鈥檚 the most important thing that has made governing so difficult for Joe Biden.鈥澛�
