Trump 2024? Some supporters quietly hope he won鈥檛 run.
| Weston, Fla.
It鈥檚 a Tuesday night at Wings in Weston, a chicken joint in a tony suburb of Fort Lauderdale, and the Weston Republican Club is holding its monthly meeting. Some 40 people have gathered to hear from candidates for City Commission and have a bite to eat.聽
Images of Donald Trump dominate a makeshift stage along one wall. To the left stands聽a cardboard cutout of the grinning former president. Another cutout of his face glowers from the center. Below that, a banner proclaims: 鈥淒on鈥檛 Blame Me, I Voted for Trump.鈥�
Which makes it all the more surprising that, when asked about a possible Trump campaign in 2024, many here are notably unenthusiastic.聽
Why We Wrote This
Although Republican voters strongly approve of Donald Trump, that doesn鈥檛 mean they all favor a Trump 2024 campaign. Some fans would prefer a fresh face to pick up Mr. Trump鈥檚 mantle going forward.
鈥淚 want Trump鈥檚 policies without Trump,鈥� says one man. 鈥淚f he didn鈥檛 run,鈥� offers another, 鈥渢hat would take a big argument away from the Democrats.鈥�
鈥淚 really don鈥檛 think it鈥檚 Trump鈥檚 time any longer,鈥� says Peggy Brown, a Republican who鈥檚 currently serving in the nonpartisan role of Weston mayor. She would prefer to see Mr. Trump transition into more of 鈥渁n elder statesman. He could be a mentor to whoever comes in.鈥�
Make no mistake: These Republican activists all still love the former president. And if he wins the nomination in 2024, they say they鈥檇 move mountains to return him to the White House.聽鈥淲ithout question,鈥� says Mayor Brown. 鈥淚鈥檓 unapologetic.鈥�
But on the question of whether he should jump in, many have reservations. Some worry Mr. Trump is too controversial, too polarizing. That perhaps his time has come and gone. At least one attendee expresses unhappiness with the former president鈥檚 full-throated endorsement of COVID-19 vaccines. Some note that the party has a wealth of potentially strong alternatives waiting in the wings 鈥� including their own governor, Florida鈥檚 Ron DeSantis, who of potential 2024 GOP candidates if Mr. Trump doesn鈥檛 run.
To be sure, it鈥檚 still early in the 2024 election cycle. Most voters, even activists, have yet to focus much on the next presidential race. While Mr. Trump has hinted strongly that he plans to mount another campaign, he鈥檚 said he won鈥檛 reveal his decision until after the November midterms.
Nationally, polls show that most Republican voters do want Mr. Trump to run again. A Quinnipiac poll released this week found 69% of GOP voters favor another Trump run. Still, that was down from 78% in October.
A Marquette University Law School poll in November found that just 60% of Republicans wanted Mr. Trump to run again, while 40% did not. The same poll showed 73% of Republicans holding a favorable view of Mr. Trump.聽
That 13 percentage point gap between those who view Mr. Trump favorably and those who want him to run again 鈥� 鈥渢here鈥檚 the interesting slippage,鈥� says Charles Franklin, director of the Marquette poll. 鈥淕ive it time, and we鈥檒l see what happens.鈥澛�
It all suggests a Trump-GOP relationship that is perhaps more complicated than conventional wisdom would dictate. Last November鈥檚 election of Republican Glenn Youngkin as governor of Virginia 鈥� a state that voted for President Biden by 10 percentage points 鈥� demonstrated that the GOP can be competitive in seemingly blue states when Mr. Trump isn鈥檛 on the ballot. Notably, Mr. Trump did not stump with Mr. Youngkin during the race.聽
The next Grover Cleveland?
In modern times, defeated one-term presidents have typically retired into a life of quiet public service. None has sought his party鈥檚 nomination again since Herbert Hoover in 1940. The only U.S. president to serve nonconsecutive terms was Grover Cleveland, back in the 1800s.聽
Yet Mr. Trump clearly remains the dominant Republican in the country today. Even elected Republicans who have openly opposed him concede the point.聽
鈥淭here鈥檚 no other option right now in the Republican Party,鈥� Rep. Peter Meijer of Michigan 鈥� one of 10 House Republicans who voted to impeach then-President Trump over the Jan. 6 riot at the U.S. Capitol 鈥� said last month on NBC鈥檚 鈥淢eet the Press.鈥澛�
Republicans鈥� views of the former president鈥檚 role going forward, however, are nuanced. One poll conducted by the Pew Research Center last September 鈥� including independents who lean Republican 鈥� want Mr. Trump to remain 鈥渁 major national figure for many years to come.鈥� But that group was divided into two camps: 44% who want him to run again in 2024 and 22% who would prefer he support another presidential candidate who shares his views.聽
The bottom line is that 鈥渢he Republican base is still very supportive of Donald Trump,鈥� says Carroll Doherty, director of political research at Pew. But 鈥渟ome people are saying, let鈥檚 wait and see what happens.鈥澛�
Lately, Mr. Trump has been focused on shoring up his role as kingmaker, putting out some 100 press releases endorsing candidates in GOP primaries for House, Senate, governor, and other key offices.聽
He鈥檚 taken particular aim at two high-profile GOP incumbents. One is Wyoming Rep. Liz Cheney, who has publicly condemned Mr. Trump for what she sees as his role in inciting the Capitol riot.聽
The other is Georgia Gov. Brian Kemp, who angered Mr. Trump by refusing to help him overturn the 2020 election result in Georgia. The former president recruited former Sen. David Perdue to mount a primary challenge against Governor Kemp.
In coming weeks, Mr. Trump plans to travel the country, campaigning for his endorsees and holding rallies. Next up is Jan. 15 in Arizona, a battleground state where Mr. Trump has claimed without evidence that the election was stolen from him. He had scheduled a press conference for Jan. 6 at Mar-a-Lago, his Florida estate, with plans to talk about the 鈥渟tolen election.鈥� But two days before, he canceled it amid reported concerns by advisers and prominent Republicans that it would be a distraction.聽
The scheduling change served as a reminder that the former president, who often welcomes controversy, can be persuaded to avoid it when it might hurt his cause.
A Trumpist, either way
David Strom, a GOP consultant from Minneapolis, had reservations about Mr. Trump in 2016, and didn鈥檛 vote for him. But given the president鈥檚 record on the economy, judicial appointments, and foreign policy, he supported him wholeheartedly in 2020.聽
Looking ahead, however, Mr. Strom lists two main concerns about the former president mounting another campaign: his age (he鈥檒l be 78 in 2024), and his 鈥渞ough edges.鈥� He thinks the GOP would be better off with a fresh face at the top.聽
鈥淭here鈥檚 just a very large number of people whose repulsion toward Trump had to do with their judgment of his character,鈥� he says.
He adds that, regardless of whether the former president runs again, his political legacy is already profound.聽
鈥淭he working-class coalition Trump has built is the new face of the Republican Party,鈥� Mr. Strom says. Even if Mr. Trump isn鈥檛 the 2024 nominee, he predicts 鈥渢he winner will almost certainly be from that wing of the party 鈥� a Trumpist.鈥�
Many Trump supporters say they鈥檒l be with him to the bitter end. One is Maciek Niedzwiecki, a Polish immigrant who lives in Reno, Nevada. During the 2016 campaign, Mr. Trump inspired him to become an American citizen, and while Mr. Niedzwiecki missed the election by a month, he happily pulled the lever for Mr. Trump in 2020 鈥� and wants him to run again in 2024.聽
Mr. Trump鈥檚 personal style doesn鈥檛 bother him, he says, because the president鈥檚 job isn鈥檛 to be a spiritual or moral leader. It鈥檚 about the issues: a strong border, energy independence, trade deals that put America first, fighting socialism.聽
鈥淚 look at the president as more of a CEO,鈥� say Mr. Niedzwiecki, a 40-something father of two who works for a biofuel company. 鈥淗e鈥檚 not taking any hits from people, and [he鈥檚] standing his ground.鈥�
Back in Weston, Florida,聽at the local party meeting, some attendees are just as enthusiastic.聽
鈥淵eah, I think he should [run],鈥� says Lenny Heda, who has a tech support business. 鈥淚鈥檓 no sycophant,鈥� he adds. 鈥淗is stance on pushing the vaccine stuff 鈥� I disagree.鈥澛�
But on a Trump 2024 campaign, he鈥檇 be all in.聽鈥淚 would take a bullet for the guy.鈥澛�
Nancy Cooke, president of the Weston Republican Club, says she wants Mr. Trump to run again, "but I can see both sides of that issue.鈥�
This story has been updated to include a comment from Nancy Cooke.
