海角大神

Democrats believe they have a winning agenda heading into the 2016 presidential election. And听for the first time, the 鈥渂ase鈥� of their party 鈥� unmarried women, people of color, and young voters 鈥� represents a majority of voting-eligible citizens, according to survey data released Monday.

But none of that matters if Democrats don鈥檛 turn out. As of now, 16 months before Election Day, that鈥檚 the challenge for them: The Democratic Party faces a big enthusiasm gap with the Republicans, 听of 950 likely 2016 voters sponsored by Democracy Corps and Women鈥檚 Voices Women Vote Action Fund.听

Among Republicans, 67 percent reported the highest level of interest in the 2016 elections 鈥� rating it a 10 on a scale of 1 to 10 鈥� compared with 52 percent of Democrats. Among the so-called rising American electorate (unmarried women, minorities, and Millennials), only 48 percent responded with a 10.听

鈥淓ven though they鈥檙e giving the Democrats big numbers, their lack of enthusiasm is grounded in an analysis of the way the political system operates,鈥� Democracy Corps founder Stan Greenberg told reporters Monday at a breakfast hosted by the Monitor.

At focus groups, Mr. Greenberg says, a lot of the talk centered on money in politics and perceptions that candidates can鈥檛 relate to the problems of average people.

鈥淭hey鈥檙e made up of a lot of rich people. They don鈥檛 have these problems we deal with on a daily basis,鈥� read one focus group comment, as reported by the two voter-research organizations. 听听

Is all this bad news for Hillary Clinton, the Democratic presidential front-runner? No, says Page Gardner, founder of Women鈥檚 Voices, now known as the Voter Participation Center. Ms. Gardner points to the 鈥渇our pillars鈥� of former Secretary Clinton鈥檚 campaign 鈥� building 鈥渢he economy of the future,鈥� campaign finance reform, strengthening families, and national security 鈥� as evidence she鈥檚 addressing the concerns of the Democratic base.

Also helping Democrats, and Clinton, is a perception that Republican candidates 鈥渄on鈥檛 get鈥� the lives of most Americans, Gardner says.

On the flip side, Republicans are more jazzed than Democrats about the 2016 elections because 鈥渢hey don鈥檛 like [President] Obama, they don鈥檛 like Hillary Clinton,鈥� says Greenberg.

鈥淲hen they watch the Supreme Court on gay marriage and the ACA, the Affordable Care Act, they see that the only thing to stop it are the Republican presidential candidates,鈥� he adds. 鈥淭hey are trying to stop something as opposed to Democrats who are needing to change a government that needs to be reformed.... And so it is a more complicated argument for Democrats.鈥澨�听

Last week, Mr. Obama and the Democrats won two huge victories in the Supreme Court 鈥� a challenge to the federal subsidies in Obamacare and the right of same-sex couples to marry. Republican presidential candidates are using those issues to argue the importance of recapturing the presidency, which brings the ability to drive the Washington agenda and nominate Supreme Court justices.

But Greenberg rejects the idea that Republicans could win politically from last week鈥檚 Supreme Court losses.

鈥淚f there鈥檚 a perception that [Obama] is a successful president, that鈥檚 a plus鈥� for Hillary, he said.