Is Mitt Romney's Florida support collapsing?
Is Mitt Romney suffering a reversal of fortune in the Florida polls? It sure looks that way at the moment. There鈥檚 a passel of new poll info out and most of it doesn鈥檛 look good for the former Massachusetts governor.
In fact, if the most recent numbers are correct, Mr. Romney has fallen behind the surging Newt Gingrich in the Sunshine State.
Let鈥檚 start with Insider Advantage 鈥� its just-released survey has Romney , 26 to 34 percent. A breakdown by age, race, and gender shows that Mitt trails the former House speaker across the board.
Rasmussen Reports has Romney nine points behind, with 32 percent to Gingrich鈥檚 41. Two weeks ago, Romney had a 22-point lead in Florida, according to Rasmussen. That disappeared quicker than a hundred dollars at Disney World, didn鈥檛 it?
Forty-two percent of Florida GOP voters now say Gingrich would be their party鈥檚 strongest general election candidate, according to Rasmussen data. Thirty-nine percent say Romney would be the strongest.
鈥淭hroughout the GOP race, Romney has always benefited from the perception that he was the strongest general election candidate in the field. However, among Florida voters at the moment, ,鈥� says a Rasmussen analysis of its new figures.
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Public Policy Polling has yet to release its latest figures. But PPP is already hinting that it is seeing a big pro-Gingrich swing. The firm tweeted last night that after a night of polling that it's finding Romney and Gingrich 鈥渘eck and neck.鈥� A PPP poll released back on Jan. 16 had shown Romney with a 15-point lead.
Wow. So is Romney鈥檚 support collapsing? Well, we鈥檇 say it鈥檚 deflating a little bit, while Gingrich voters are exploding in number. Take the Rasmussen poll: Over two weeks, it shows the Romney vote declining by nine percentage points, while the Gingrich vote gained a whopping 22 percentage points. That鈥檚 a big swing.
The Romney camp does have at least one bit of good news to cling to. Florida has early voting, and a substantial portion of the GOP electorate has already mailed in ballots. Among these voters, Romney leads by 11 percentage points, according to Rasmussen.
Given the volatility of the race so far, it鈥檚 also possible that what goes up can ... well, do we have to finish that? It鈥檚 a truism of politics that support quickly gained can be lost just as quickly.
Gingrich has benefited from a run of great debate performances and media reports talking about his great debate performances. Romney, meanwhile, has struggled through a very tough 10 days, with scrutiny of his tenure at Bain Capital, his hesitance about releasing his tax forms, and other negatives dominating his news coverage.
鈥淚 would expect that Gingrich won鈥檛 be able to ride high for too long. News coverage tends to be cyclical, and it won鈥檛 be long before Gingrich comes in for from somewhere,鈥� writes George Washington University political scientist John Sides on the Monkey Cage political blog Jan. 23.
Well, maybe. But how much worse could criticism of Gingrich become, given that his ex-wife has already gone on national television to talk about their ugly divorce?
I see 鈥� it could get worse. Just look at this from the Romney camp.
One thing is certain: Romney really, really, really wants Rick Santorum to keep up the fight. Santorum gets about 13 percent of Florida GOP voters in recent polls, and much of that 13 percent is composed of just the sort of voters who are most suspicious of Romney: conservative evangelicals.
鈥淛ust as Gingrich is eyeing Santorum鈥檚 anti-Romney voters in Florida, Romney hopes Santorum will survive through the voting there 鈥� and won鈥檛 , dropping out before Election Day,鈥� writes University of Virginia political scientist Larry Sabato on his Crystal Ball blog.
