Can Mitt Romney recover from his South Carolina 'disaster'?
Was Newt Gingrich鈥檚 very solid victory in South Carolina Saturday night a fluke 鈥� as the Republican establishment fervently hopes?
Or was it a clear sign that all bets are off in the GOP nomination race 鈥� a time when the mix of social, economic, and political forces in the United States have combined to create a new landscape for electoral politics?
Just three contests into the primary/caucus season, the question may be unanswerable, the kind of thing that keeps pundits and political scientists gainfully employed. But the results are stark.
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鈥淪outh Carolina has proven to be a disaster for Mitt Romney,鈥� write Larry Sabato and Kyle Kondik of the University of Virginia Center for Politics in their morning-after analysis.
鈥淭he size of his defeat by Newt Gingrich 鈥� a 12%+ landslide in a four-way race 鈥� is virtually a repudiation of his candidacy in a state that has prided itself on picking the eventual nominee for 32 years,鈥� they write. 鈥淎nd we suspect Romney will have several more nights of heartburn, much like this one, as the nomination process unfolds.鈥�
In the Palmetto State, Romney鈥檚 slide from presumptive front-runner was swift. Three days earlier, he鈥檇 had a clear lead in the polls. But back-to-back debates in South Carolina clearly showed Romney鈥檚 weakness and Gingrich鈥檚 strength in such crucial venues. Romney waffled on his wealth and income taxes; Gingrich dined on red meat when he took after the media over his marital infidelities.
Gingrich did well across the board in South Carolina, according to exit polls gathered by CNN: By gender (51 percent of men and 49 percent of women voted for him), age, education and income level, religion, ideology (Romney barely won among self-described moderates).
Most tea party supporters went for Gingrich. Importantly, so did most of those for whom the ability to defeat Barack Obama was the key to winning their vote 鈥� 鈥渆lectability,鈥� which was supposed to be Romney鈥檚 strong point.
If Romney doesn鈥檛 want to be discouraged by the Sunday morning analysis of his defeat, he鈥檇 better stick to the funny papers.
Writing at Real Clear Politics, Sean Trende says there are three takeaways from South Carolina: 鈥淭here is no good news buried in here for Mitt Romney鈥�. This is worse than George W. Bush鈥檚 loss to John McCain in New Hampshire鈥�. Analysts are kidding themselves if they say Romney is the inevitable nominee.鈥�
South Carolina was always going to be tough for Romney. In 2008, he came in just fourth there.
Now, Romney seems to be heading to 鈥渕ore favorable ground,鈥� as Sabato and Kondik put it.
According to 2008 exit polls from Florida, Nevada, Arizona, and Michigan 鈥� important upcoming contests 鈥� the number of evangelical 海角大神s and those who describe themselves as 鈥渧ery conservative鈥� is smaller there than it was this year in Iowa and South Carolina.
Although Gingrich鈥檚 South Carolina win no doubt will generate more financial support for his campaign, Romney at this point has more resources to get his message across in Florida (including expected attacks on Gingrich), which is a much larger state than the candidates have fought in so far.
As of Sunday, Romney was leading Gingrich by 18.5 percentage points (40.5-22.0) in Florida, according to the Real Clear Politics average of polling data. In national tracking data, he鈥檚 ahead of Gingrich by 8.2 points. But as this past week's experience shows, that can swiftly change. The extent to which Gingrich's momentum continues will be key.
Though the South Carolina results for Rick Santorum and Ron Paul were less than spectacular (17 percent and 13 percent respectively), both vow to stay in the race for now. That works to Romney鈥檚 advantage, avoiding the two-man race that at this point would seem to benefit Gingrich.
Still, all eyes are focused on the two men at the head of a dwindling pack 鈥� especially as they prepare to do rhetorical battle in critical debates in Florida this coming week.
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