Will 2020 be the year Iowa loses its clout? Or will it matter more than ever?
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Liz Marlantes Politics Editor
| Washington
Dear reader:
The Iowa caucuses are now just 19 days away. Which means that soon, we might get some clarity on who is likely to become the Democratic nominee.
Or not.
Why We Wrote This
With its first-in-the-nation caucuses, Iowa has played a major role in selecting Democratic presidential nominees in recent decades, to the consternation of some.
Politico鈥檚 Bill Scher makes an that Iowa will matter 鈥渓ess than ever鈥� in 2020. He notes that the candidates themselves have spent less time in Iowa compared with previous cycles 鈥� and more time in states like California, which will vote on Super Tuesday.
This is all the intended result, he says, of changes made in 2008 to the primary schedule by the Democratic National Committee, placing South Carolina and Nevada right after Iowa and New Hampshire, with a 鈥渜uasi-national primary鈥� shortly thereafter.
鈥淭he sheer breadth of the Super Tuesday map, along with the compressed timetable, has persuaded candidates to crisscross the country, hunting for votes as well as dollars,鈥� Mr. Scher writes.
Others aren鈥檛 buying the notion that Iowa鈥檚 clout is on the wane. The Hawkeye State has played a pivotal role in choosing the Democratic nominee going back to Jimmy Carter because of the momentum it typically gives winners. Barack Obama鈥檚 win there over Hillary Clinton in 2008 propelled his candidacy forward in a way that鈥檚 hard to overstate. The same was true for John Kerry in 2004 (a year that had an even more condensed timetable, with a 鈥渕ini鈥� Super Tuesday just one week after New Hampshire).
The New York Times鈥檚 Ross Douthat that a victory by former Vice President Joe Biden in Iowa next month might well 鈥渨rap up the nomination.鈥� A first-place finish by Vermont Sen. Bernie Sanders would likely set up a two-person race between Senator Sanders and Mr. Biden. Perhaps the only outcome in Iowa that wouldn鈥檛 at least narrow the field significantly, Mr. Douthat writes, would be a 鈥渟omewhat random-seeming one鈥� or 鈥渁 de facto four-way tie.鈥�
As we鈥檝e noted before, this cycle bears many 鈥� with the top four candidates closely bunched in polls, and voters seeming to prioritize 鈥榚lectability鈥� above all else. If those parallels continue, it鈥檚 easy to envision Iowa once again launching the eventual winner.
Let us know what you鈥檙e thinking at csmpolitics@csmonitor.com.
