For clues about 2020 campaign, look back to 2004
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Liz Marlantes Politics Editor
| Washington
Dear reader:
Lately, I鈥檝e been thinking about the 2004 campaign 鈥� and all the ways in which the current cycle resembles it.
In 2003, Democrats were intent on ousting an incumbent Republican who had previously lost the popular vote, and whom many labeled one of the聽. Liberals accused President George W. Bush of being聽听补苍诲听, having taken the nation into a controversial war in Iraq under false pretenses.
Why We Wrote This
The 2004 campaign cycle was the last time Democrats were faced with trying to oust a Republican president. The way voters are evaluating their candidates feels strikingly similar.
They also worried (correctly, as it turned out) that they might not be able to beat him. The 2004 Democratic primary was聽聽as the party debated which of its candidates would be strongest against President Bush. Should they nominate a liberal antiwar outsider who fired up young people and electrified the base? Or go with an establishment type whose r茅sum茅 seemed less easy to demonize?
In the end, Democrats went with Massachusetts Sen. John Kerry, whose record of military service and vote in favor of the Iraq War made him seem to many the safest pick. And they lost.
The analogy isn鈥檛 exact, of course. President Donald Trump has never enjoyed the kind of approval ratings that President Bush saw in the wake of 9/11 鈥� and Democrats鈥� animosity toward him makes the聽聽of the early 2000s look positively genial by comparison.
聽Still, 2004 might offer some lessons when it comes to the current campaign. For one thing, it suggests the outcome in Iowa will be crucial. Senator Kerry did not actually lead in the polls at this point in the cycle 鈥� but his win in Iowa clearly shaped the race from that point on. When a party is searching for an 鈥渆lectable鈥� candidate, the best way to meet that criteria is often by winning.
At the same time, as 2004 made clear, 鈥渆lectability鈥� is a slippery thing. Aspects of Senator Kerry鈥檚 candidacy that were presumed to be strengths during the primary were turned into weaknesses over the course of the general election (remember the聽?).
Some progressives today have been pointing to the 2004 campaign as evidence that聽. Yet it鈥檚 also worth remembering that the 2004 election was, in the end, relatively close. And it鈥檚 entirely possible that a more liberal candidate like Vermont Gov. Howard Dean would have lost in a landslide 鈥� along the lines of聽聽that some analysts have been citing of late: 1972.
Let us know what you鈥檙e thinking at聽csmpolitics@csmonitor.com.
