GOP presidential primary: why wild swings persist
Another day, another poll. 聽Friday night,聽IBD/TIPP released a聽聽showing Donald Trump leading the field by 5. Last night,聽聽showed Ben Carson up by 6. Aside from the fact that 鈥渙utsiders鈥� continue to dominate the competition, the real news is the sheer volatility of the poll numbers.
Here is the聽聽over the last three months, the span since the first big debate of the cycle.
At first glance, there鈥檚 a remarkable consistency: Trump has dominated,聽Carson has been rising fast, and everyone else is far behind.聽But go back to points in the cycle and there are wild swings. Look at the lead changes over that period:
- Aug. 3:聽Trump 22.5, Bush 12.7, and Walker 12.0. 聽 (聽six weeks later.)
- Aug. 18: Trump 22.0, Bush 10.7, and Carson 9.7.
- Aug. 28: Trump 23.5, Carson 10.3, and Bush 9.8.
- Sept. 22: Trump 28.0, Carson聽19.0, and Rubio 8.0.
- Sept. 23: Trump 25.7, Carson 18.3, and Fiorina 9.3
- October 10: Trump 22.9, Carson 17.7, and Rubio 9.9
Since then, those three have held as the Top 3 top, with fluctuation in their numbers and the competition among the also-rans has continued.
Wisconsin Gov. Scott Walker鈥檚 fall off the cliff聽is almost as interesting as Carson鈥檚 meteoric rise. Carly Fiorina, who vaulted herself from the kid鈥檚 table to the main debate after a solid debate performance and then flashed into a solid third place after a second fine showing, had a rather brief moment in the sun. She faded away for no apparent reason, having committed no obvious gaffes.
Rubio hasn鈥檛 so much risen as others have fallen off. He鈥檚 been no lower than 8.0 and no higher than 10.2 going back to mid-September.
Bush hasn鈥檛 led any national poll since July 19, when Trump聽exploded into first place. But he鈥檚 been holding steady for the past two-and-a-half months.
It鈥檚 been pretty clearly a two-man race for first for the last two months. We鈥檒l see if Trump鈥檚 crazy uncle at Thanksgiving and Carson鈥檚 low talker who knows nothing at all about national politics act wears thin between now and Feb. 1, when the people of Iowa cast the first actual votes in the contest. My bet continues to be that they will, although this cycle is so unlike anything I鈥檝e ever seen before that it defies prediction
