South Carolina: Why vote to remove Confederate flag is no sure thing
Do opponents of the Confederate flag have the votes to remove it聽from South Carolina鈥檚 Capitol grounds?
In an attempt at answering this question, Charleston鈥檚 newspaper,聽, did the yeoman鈥檚 work of contacting聽all 170 state lawmakers and .聽It鈥檚 an important bit of journalism, one that informs citizens and holds lawmakers accountable, and has from a number of .
As of Thursday at 5:00 p.m., the Senate looks certain to vote to take down the Confederate flag. 聽At the time of this post, 33 senators have expressed their support for removing the flag while only 2 stand in opposition. With just 46 members, this clears the requisite two-thirds majority needed to secure passage.
However, the House is short of the necessary votes. While it seems like a safe bet that the lower chamber will eventually cross the two-thirds threshold, there are reasons to be cautious. Indeed, The Post & Courier鈥檚 data suffer from a problem known as 鈥渘on-response bias.鈥� 聽In this case, the data almost certainly聽overstate聽support for bringing down the flag.聽
At the present time, nearly 90% of representatives support taking down the flag. However, among those that haven鈥檛 responded, 100 percent (all of them) are Republicans 鈥� and many are from very conservative districts.
Simply put, if a large enough bloc of these 鈥渘on-respondents鈥� are secretly 鈥渘o鈥� votes, the effort to take down the Confederate flag could be in jeopardy. Looking at the breakdown of these lawmakers, it鈥檚 apparent that some (perhaps most) of the non-respondents are hiding their opinion by not answering.聽 It鈥檚 a classic 鈥� yet frustrating 鈥� problem in survey research.
Fortunately, common statistical models can help us 鈥渇ix鈥� this problem and simulate the final vote total (but see some important caveats below).聽 In this analysis, The Post and Courier鈥檚 data serves as the dependent variable (using a lawmaker鈥檚 鈥測es,鈥� 鈥渘o,鈥� and 鈥渕issing鈥� responses). Independent variables include a lawmaker鈥檚 party affiliation as well as demographic data from the counties in their legislative district: (1) Obama鈥檚 vote share in 2012, (2) the percentage of black residents, (3) the percentage with at least high school degree, and (4) the percentage 65-plus age group. (County data is an imperfect聽proxy for聽a lawmaker鈥檚 constituents because some聽districts span small parts聽of a county. However, it鈥檚 the only聽data available. Add this to the list of caveats.)
Without including too many of the boring details, two models are estimated: one predicting why a lawmaker has yet to reveal his or her position (which helps 鈥渇ix鈥� the non-response bias) and a second predicting a lawmaker鈥檚 response. What the model gives us is the predicted probability that the聽non-respondent will be a 鈥測es鈥� or a 鈥渘o鈥� vote.
In the figure below, I report聽the predictions (again, just for those who have yet to reveal their聽preference). A blue dot signifies the聽predicted probability of voting for removing the Confederate flag while the red bar represents the prediction鈥檚 variability. A larger red bar indicates the model is less certain about how a lawmaker will vote.
Looking at the bottom of the figure, William 鈥淏ill鈥� Whitmire (R) is the most likely non-respondent to vote聽against聽removing the flag (the model gives him a 2 percent chance of voting for Confederate flag removal). In Oconee County鈥攚here his district is located鈥攋ust 28 percent of voters voted for Obama in 2012.聽 Further, only eight percent are black and Oconee County has the second largest percentage of residents over the age of 65 in South Carolina.
In contrast, at the top of figure, Kirkman Finlay, III (R) is the most likely non-respondent to vote聽for聽removing the flag (the model gives him a 99 percent chance).聽 In Richland County, where his district is located, 65 percent of residents voted for Obama in 2012. Richland County also has a high percentage of blacks and residents聽with at least a high school degree and a low percentage of those over the age of 65.
Most importantly, among the 37 holdouts, only 12 are predicted to vote聽against聽removing the Confederate flag from the Capitol grounds. In contrast, 25 are predicted to vote聽for聽removing the flag. 聽Note that this is based on assigning those less than 50 percent to the 鈥渘o鈥� column and those more than 50 percent to the 鈥測es鈥� column. An obvious caveat: There is significant variability in the model; this is not the kind of thing that can be predicted with certainty. For example, while James 鈥淛ay鈥� Lucas is currently in the 鈥測es鈥� column (at 61 percent) and Ralph Kennedy, Jr. is in the 鈥渘o鈥� column (at 40 percent), it wouldn鈥檛 be that surprising if either voted the opposite way.
Finally, if we include the declared 鈥測es鈥� and 鈥渘o鈥� respondents in the tabulation, we get a final vote total of 101-23.聽 Needless to say, this crosses the two-thirds threshold.
A few more caveats. First, my gut feeling聽is that the model is too bullish on the probabilities of a 鈥測es鈥� vote.聽 While I think the House has the votes to remove the flag, I wouldn鈥檛 be surprised if a number of the non-respondents in the 鈥測es鈥� column end up being 鈥渘o鈥� votes.聽 Second, The Post & Courier鈥檚 dataset records support for removing the Confederate Flag in the abstract. At the present time, there are three bills that have been introduced聽in the General Assembly. 聽Furthermore, the committees receiving referral of the those bills can make their own statutory additions or subtractions. In the end, the nature of the bill could change the predictions聽dramatically.
But while there are still reasons to be cautious, it seems like a good bet that the Confederate flag is coming down from South Carolina鈥檚 Capitol grounds.
Jordan Ragusa publishes his Rule 22 blog at .
