What happens if Donald Trump wins big in South Carolina?
Donald Trump is rolling along and gaining momentum. At what point will he have enough electoral/kinetic force that no other candidate will be able to prevent him from winning the nomination?
That鈥檚 our immediate reaction to a new poll out of South Carolina that shows Mr. Trump maintaining a wide lead in the state. He鈥檚 the choice of 36.3 percent of South Carolina voters, according to the Augusta Chronicle survey. Sen. Ted Cruz (R) of Texas is a fairly distant second at 19.6 percent, with Sen. Marco Rubio (R) of Florida is third at 14.6.
There hasn鈥檛 been a lot of polling in the Palmetto State but these results are consistent with polls conducted prior to the New Hampshire primary. What they show is that the race may remain static. Trump leads. Senator Cruz is his only real competition. Behind them come the peloton of contenders for the title of establishment alternative, jammed up and elbows out.
That sound you hear is the slap of face-palming pundits as the reality of the situation sinks in.
鈥淔olks, I鈥檝e been as skeptical as anyone about Trump, but make no mistake he wins SC by 15+: it鈥檚 possible but tough to stop that train,鈥� FiveThirtyEight poll expert Harry Enten on Friday afternoon.
Poll data shows Trump winning almost all South Carolina GOP demographic categories. He even wins voters who say they are 鈥渧ery conservative,鈥� though by only one point over Cruz.
Add the poll figures for the so-called establishment candidates 鈥� Marco Rubio, Jeb Bush, and John Kasich 鈥� and the total number is still a couple of points lower than Trump鈥檚 36 percent. That suggests that even if party elites could rally around one candidate and get the other two to drop out, Trump would still win.
鈥淲hat I wonder now after New Hampshire is if anyone can stop Trump even if someone gets to the point where they鈥檙e one of the final three,鈥� said University of New Hampshire on a February 12 episode of POTUSCast, a political podcast.
Trump could still lose, Mr. Scala added. It鈥檚 just becoming more doubtful that will happen.
It鈥檚 true the Augusta Chronicle poll is just one poll in just one state. Trump鈥檚 national numbers have dropped a few points in recent weeks.
Cruz remains the pivot point. Can he gain strength in the South by hammering Trump as a closet liberal? If so, could he actually win? If not, where would his voters go?
A large majority of the , a group of insiders in early voting states, still think Trump鈥檚 a goner. Eighty-five percent of them say Trump is not on track to win the nomination, despite his recent big New Hampshire primary win.
But insiders have been saying that for months now. When does Trump鈥檚 losing start?
