Your 30-second guide to 2014 midterms
| Washington
The United States is slouching toward a midterm election next Tuesday. Americans aren鈥檛 in a great mood about the state of the nation and are paying even less attention to the upcoming vote than normal.
According to , 68 percent of registered voters say they are following midterm news at least 鈥渟omewhat closely." Four years ago, the corresponding figure for the 2010 midterms was 76 percent. In 2006, it was 78 percent.
Given this relative disinterest, we鈥檒l just hit the analytic high points as we see them with one week to go. Then, readers can move on to stories they might find more uplifting.
Republicans are increasingly likely to win the big prize.聽Virtually all forecasting models show the GOP鈥檚 chances of taking control of the Senate are quite good and have moved up in recent days. puts the average likelihood of Republican Senate victory at 69 percent.
But "likely" doesn't mean "certain."聽The aforementioned figure corresponds with a 31 percent chance of Democrats keeping Senate control. That鈥檚 about the same as the likelihood of a .310 hitter in baseball getting a hit in one particular at-bat.
the GOP has maintained a consistent lead in the Senate rankings this fall, but not a decisive one. Some races, such as those in Georgia and perhaps Kentucky have moved in the opposite direction of national surveys, toward Democrats.
鈥淩epublicans have the edge, but they haven鈥檛 been able to put Democrats away,鈥� writes Mr. Silver.
Voters dislike Obama and lots else.聽The president鈥檚 poor approval ratings are obviously a drag on Democratic prospects. Obama鈥檚 job approval average for his just-completed 23rd quarter in office was 41.5 percent, . That鈥檚 among the lowest such ratings for any post-World War II US chief executive, and it鈥檚 鈥渃reating a strong headwind for Democratic candidates," writes Gallup鈥檚 Jeffrey M. Jones.
But wait, there鈥檚 more. Overall discontent in the nation is 鈥減alpable," .
Seventy percent of voters rate the economy negatively, according to the new Washington Post/ABC News poll. Sixty-eight percent say the country is on the wrong track.
Sixty percent say they have no more than a little trust in the government to do what鈥檚 right. Fifty-three percent say the government鈥檚 ability to function in crises has declined in recent years.
For the party in power, that鈥檚 not just a headwind. It鈥檚 .
Non-voters swing elections, just like voters.聽It鈥檚 an old point, but turnout is a huge deal in midterm elections. There鈥� s a bit in the Post survey that shows just how big a swing this can be.
Among those the pollsters judge 鈥渓ikely voters,鈥� 50 percent say they鈥檒l vote Republican for their own House district. Forty-four percent say they鈥檒l vote Democratic. This is in line with predictions that the GOP will easily keep House control.
Among the larger universe of registered voters, it鈥檚 a different story. Democrats lead there, 47 to 44 percent. But that鈥檚 not the electorate that鈥檚 going to turn out next Tuesday, most likely.
a 鈥渄emographic brick wall: the persistent tendency of core Democratic voter groups to sit out midterm elections.鈥�
