Has Alison Lundergan Grimes pulled even with Mitch McConnell in Kentucky?
| Washington
So ... maybe Mitch McConnell should put away that tape measure and stop measuring the Senate majority leader鈥檚 office for drapes. You know, preparatory to moving in after he wins reelection in November and the GOP (maybe) takes control of the chamber.
We say that because Wednesday Senator McConnell鈥檚 race against Democratic opponent Alison Lundergan Grimes looks a bit tighter than it did a few days ago, when we suggested that McConnell might begin planning such redecoration.
For one thing, of the Kentucky contest finds McConnell and state Secretary of State Grimes virtually tied. The Bluegrass Poll puts McConnell at 44 percent, and Grimes at 43, with 5 percent for a third party candidate and 8 percent undecided.
For another, the Democratic Party and the Grimes campaign are throwing money at ads in what looks like a last-month push to prevail.
The Democratic Senatorial Campaign Committee had previously pulled resources from Kentucky to spend elsewhere. But now the party group is jumping back in, and has reserved $650,000 in ad air time after seeing the latest poll numbers, .
Grimes herself has released that charges McConnell will 鈥渟ay anything鈥� to get reelected. It features secretly recorded audio of the incumbent telling wealthy donors he鈥檒l oppose a minimum wage hike and other economic proposals backed by Democrats. (Full disclosure: a 海角大神 Science Monitor opinion piece flashes on screen in this ad.)
Despite all this, we still think McConnell is likely to win reelection. That鈥檚 what the election fundamentals 鈥� and many forecasters 鈥� continue to say.
Take the polls. Even with the latest Bluegrass numbers, the average of recent surveys has McConnell with a statistically significant lead of 4.4 points, .
And the Bluegrass Poll itself has slid toward the GOP. A month ago it had Grimes up by two points. Now, it is McConnell by one.
In general, the 2014 mid-term outlook favors Republicans. Kentucky is a red state that went for Romney in 2012 by 23 points.
Thus the of The New York Times gives McConnell a 91 percent chance of victory, however close the race looks in the polls. , which leans more towards the GOP, puts McConnell鈥檚 chances at 99 percent.聽
data journalism site is more restrained, with McConnell at a 78 percent chance of winning.
In other words, McConnell should keep that tape measure around. Just in case.
