Is Obama dragging Democratic Party down?
| Washington
President Obama鈥檚 job approval rating isn鈥檛 great. It鈥檚 been underwater for over a year and currently stands at 41 percent favorable and 53 percent unfavorable, according to a . Is that an ominous sign for Democrats heading into the 2014 midterm elections?
The short answer to that question is "yes." The longer answer is 鈥測es, but Mr. Obama鈥檚 relative unpopularity is not the only rock dragging down Democratic chances of holding their Senate majority."
First, the predictions: Right now, the consensus among big-time forecasters is that odds are good the Senate will swing the GOP鈥檚 way. calculates that Republicans have a 68 percent chance of capturing the Senate. puts that figure at 58 percent. University of Virginia professor rates the most likely Senate outcome a Republican gain of six or seven seats, giving them a small majority.
That doesn鈥檛 mean it鈥檚 a sure thing that Sen. Mitch McConnell (R) of Kentucky will fulfill his dream of becoming majority leader. These forecast numbers leave lots of room for the GOP to fall short, which might ignite a poisonous round of intramural recriminations. But that鈥檚 a story for another day.
Obama鈥檚 sagging numbers are one big reason things stand as they do, electorally speaking. As Scott Clement of political blog noted Tuesday, the president is in essence on the ballot, even if his name isn鈥檛. Political science research shows an increasingly tight relationship between presidential job approval and votes cast for Senate candidates.
In 2012, 90 percent of voters who cast a ballot for a Democratic Senate candidate approved of Obama, carried out by Emory University political scientist Alan Abramowitz. Eighty-two percent who voted for Republican candidates disapproved of the president鈥檚 job performance. That鈥檚 a partisan consistency that has been steadily on the rise since 1972.
Furthermore, in some of the tossup states key to the Senate's control, Obama鈥檚 more unpopular than his national average. In North Carolina, where Democratic incumbent Sen. Kay Hagan is fighting state Rep. Thom Tillis, the president鈥檚 approval is two points lower than the average 鈥� 41 percent 鈥� that .
, where Democratic incumbent Sen. Mary Landrieu is similarly trying to turn back a challenge from US Rep. Bill Cassidy (R), Obama鈥檚 approval rating is 40 percent. , where it鈥檚 incumbent Sen. Mark Pryor (D) versus Rep. Tom Cotton (R), Obama鈥檚 approval is a dismal 33 percent.
Other factors are weighing on Democratic chances, of course. Historically, the president鈥檚 party tends to lose seats in midterms, though that effect is less pronounced for the Senate than it is for the House.
Also, the Democratic Party is playing defense this cycle, defending more incumbents than is the GOP. A number of these Democrats are in red or purple states and won office in 2008 in the wave of Obama鈥檚 first-term election.
Finally, there鈥檚 a trend that RealClearPolitics senior elections analyst Sean Trende calls 鈥渋deological drift.鈥� A number of states where Democrats may well lose seats this cycle 鈥� notably West Virginia, South Dakota, Montana, Louisiana, and Arkansas 鈥� have become substantially more Republican in recent years.
鈥淸I]t is also very important to keep in mind that there are demographic shifts that work against Democrats, and that they play a very substantial role in the party鈥檚 precarious position this cycle,鈥� .
