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Are unhappy voters more motivated voters?

That鈥檚 the implication from , who has found a correlation between low approval of Congress and higher turnout in the past five midterm elections.

The difference is modest. In 2010, when Congress鈥檚 job approval was 21 percent, turnout was 40.9 percent of the voting eligible population. In 2002, when 50 percent of American adults 鈥� 50 percent! 鈥� approved of the job Congress was doing, 39.5 percent of eligible voters turned out.

Forty percent seems to be the magic number. In all five of the most recent midterms, starting in 1998, turnout was above 40 percent when congressional job approval was below 40 percent, and vice versa.

Today, congressional job approval is an abysmal 13 percent, per Gallup. And even that is up from 9 percent last November, an all-time Gallup low. So maybe we鈥檙e in for higher-than-usual turnout this November.

The gazillion-dollar question is, which party will benefit?

Republicans seem to have the energy. They鈥檙e really unhappy with President Obama, though he鈥檚 not on the ballot. But they can take out their frustrations on聽Democrats, especially in states with competitive Senate races. Republicans need a net gain of six seats to take over the Senate, and that looks entirely doable. Political oddsmaker to take over the Senate. 聽

But Democrats aren鈥檛 just sitting there. They鈥檙e quietly organizing up a storm in the battleground states, as in her story from Arkansas.

Sen. Mark Pryor of Arkansas is one of the most vulnerable Democrats this cycle, and all the organizing in the world might not save his job. But the Democrats aren鈥檛 giving up. And they鈥檙e building on their success in 2012, when they scored improbable Senate victories in Montana and North Dakota, both red states that went heavily for Mitt Romney over Mr. Obama. 聽

鈥淭his year marks Democrats鈥� attempt to roll out the program on a national scale,鈥� Ms. Ball writes. 鈥淒ubbed the Bannock Street Project 鈥� it will, by the time the election is over, comprise a 4,000-employee, $60 million effort in 10 states.鈥�

In the end, big unhappiness with Congress may give neither party an advantage, suggests Mr. Jones, Gallup鈥檚 managing editor. The Republicans have a near-certain lock on the House, and Obama is president until January 2017. So divided government is here to stay for the next two-plus years.

鈥淚f many voters see little possibility of changing the partisan makeup of government after this fall's elections 鈥� given that a divided government is already in place and almost certainly will be after the elections 鈥� there could be no increase in turnout this year despite Americans' frustration with Congress,鈥� writes Jones.

鈥淗owever, if voters have designs on changing the government and see a good chance that they can do so 鈥� perhaps by voting against incumbents of both parties 鈥� then turnout may rise, as in similar past elections.鈥�