Does new poll show Democrats might keep control of Senate?
| Washington
Might Democrats keep control of the Senate following this fall鈥檚 midterm elections? That question is reverberating through Washington political circles Monday following the surprising numbers of a just-released of key red state 2014 Senate races.
The survey shows Democratic candidates even with or ahead of Republican rivals in Kentucky, Georgia, and Arkansas. If nothing else it鈥檚 been a morale boost for left-leaning partisans after months of electoral bad news.
鈥淭oday鈥檚 new polling is a reminder that maybe, just maybe, all the GOP certainty about their pending Senate takeover is a bit premature,鈥� writes liberal Greg Sargent at his Washington Post blog.
For instance, NBC/Marist data survey has Democratic challenger Alison Lundergan Grimes within a percentage point of Senate minority leader Mitch McConnell in Kentucky. Given Kentucky鈥檚 Republican lean, many observers have felt that Senator McConnell is the heavy favorite in this race.
In Georgia, the poll puts Democrat Michelle Nunn about even with all possible Republican opponents. That has Democrats dreaming of the return of the Nunn clan to the US Capitol 鈥� Ms. Nunn鈥檚 father, Sam Nunn, served in the Senate for a quarter century.
And the survey puts incumbent Sen. Mark Pryor of Arkansas 鈥� one of the most endangered Democrats on most pundit lists 鈥� a whopping 11 points ahead of GOP challenger Tom Cotton.
All the above 鈥渁re competitive states as far as the general election is concerned,鈥� says Lee Miringoff, director of the Marist College Institute for Public Opinion in Poughkeepsie, N.Y.
Well, that鈥檚 probably true. But it鈥檚 still way too early to put too much credence in these numbers. Individual polls don鈥檛 tell you that much this far in advance of statewide elections.
Lumping NBC data in with previous polls, the RealClearPolitics average of major surveys has McConnell ahead by one percentage point 鈥� essentially tied.
In Georgia, RealClearPolitics has . And in Arkansas, it has 鈥� meaning the big 11 point lead he enjoys in the NBC poll may be an outlier.
And election forecasting models at this point in the cycle don鈥檛 put much credence in poll numbers, if they include them at all. Other factors such as incumbency, candidate quality, the state of the economy, and national trends weigh more in early-stage political prognostication.
Those models have barely budged, in case you鈥檙e interested. At the New York Times, their gives the Republicans a 54 percent chance of retaking the chamber. That鈥檚 essentially a tossup.
Other math-based forecasts give close to the Upshot鈥檚 results 鈥� with the exception of the , which has the GOP as 82 percent favorites to gain Senate control.
The bottom line: don鈥檛 get too excited about each day鈥檚 headlines, one way or another. There are lots of headlines and potentially election-changing events to come.
