Paul Ryan wins Iowa poll! What's that mean for 2016?
| Washington
Iowa Republicans love Paul Ryan, apparently. That鈥檚 probably the most surprising finding in the of possible 2016 presidential candidates.
Fully 73 percent of self-described GOP respondents to the Iowa survey view Representative Ryan (R) of Wisconsin either very or mostly favorably. That makes the former VP candidate and current House Budget Committee chairman the leading Republican hopeful in the state. Of course, the Iowa caucuses are still three years away, but it鈥檚 not too early to start chewing this stuff over, right? Right?
Second in the Register鈥檚 GOP rankings is Mike Huckabee, with a comparable favorable rating of 66 percent. Perhaps this is one reason the former Arkansas governor has quit his radio show and is talking openly of perhaps running for president again. He won the Iowa caucuses in 2008, after all.
Third is former Sen. Rick Santorum of Pennsylvania, a 2012 candidate, with 58 percent.
Maybe the second biggest surprise in the poll is Ted Cruz鈥檚 lagging ratings. The Texas senator and tea party firebrand is tied for last in the Register鈥檚 Republican rankings, with 46 percent favorability.
Why did Ryan do so well here? One reason may be simple celebrity. He stumped the country for his ticket only a bit over a year ago, after all.
鈥淩yan鈥檚 numbers speak to the power of being on the national ticket 鈥� even if you don鈥檛 win,鈥� write Washington Post political experts Chris Cillizza and Sean Sullivan on聽.
Governor Huckabee and Senator Santorum, the 鈥渟how鈥� and 鈥減lace鈥� finishers, weren鈥檛 national candidates. But they were candidates for the nomination, which may be why they finished ahead of national campaign neophytes such as Senator Cruz and New Jersey Gov. Chris Christie (who came in at a 51 percent favorability rating, if you鈥檙e interested).
Second, there鈥檚 the map. Ryan鈥檚 home state of Wisconsin is adjacent to Iowa. He鈥檚 perhaps a regional favorite son. (Though we鈥檒l note that Wisconsin Gov. Scott Walker was the person who tied with Cruz for last.)
Finally, maybe Ryan isn鈥檛 actually as popular in the Hawkeye State as the poll shows.
Look at the Iowa poll鈥檚 methodology. It surveyed 650 state adults, but that number included Democrats and independents. The poll sampled the opinion of but 182 self-identified Republicans for its GOP-only rankings, which are the ones we cited above.
At 650 respondents, the poll鈥檚 margin of error was plus-or-minus 3.8 percent. For a subset of 182 respondents, the margin of error would be much higher.
There鈥檚 nothing wrong with this 鈥� it鈥檚 a reputable survey. It鈥檚 just something to keep in mind as we wait out the (many) months until candidate activity begins to quicken.
