海角大神

Amazon CEO Jeff Bezos on Sunday said his firm is working on ways to deliver small packages via drones. That鈥檚 right: Amazon 鈥淧rime Air鈥� may eventually have thousands of robot flying machines buzzing through neighborhoods across America, dropping off everything from shoes to consumer electronics.

At least, that鈥檚 the vision Mr. Bezos outlined on 鈥�60 Minutes.鈥�

鈥淚t will work, and it will happen, and it鈥檚 gonna be a lot of fun,鈥� he told correspondent Charlie Rose.

Well, we would not wager against Amazon, given its relentless march toward US retail dominance. And it鈥檚 easy to see how the concept would work, in a technical sort of way: Small "octocopter" unmanned aerial vehicles (UAVs) capable of carrying five pounds or so already exist.

The 鈥渇un,鈥� however, may be in the eye of the beholder. In urban areas, swooping octocopters might seem a hazard, pigeons with gas-powered propellers. In rural areas, they might be targets for people bored of hunting deer.

鈥淎mazon fine print: 鈥楧rone delivery unavailable outside urban areas during hunting season,鈥� 鈥� RedState's on Monday.

And the real problem here might be the Feds. The Federal Aviation Administration is working to integrate civilian drones into US airspace. That鈥檚 unlikely to be a speedy process. Amazon鈥檚 realistic drone-delivery start date might be 2025 or beyond.

That鈥檚 if Amazon can satisfy the FAA鈥檚 safety concerns at all. The Amazon concept brings drones into closer contact with people than other civilian UAV uses currently under FAA study. Will it be possible to avoid packages dropped from a hundred feet up, buzzing drones snagged on power lines, out-of-control drones plummeting into bedroom windows? Plus, what about privacy and national security concerns?

鈥淭he safe integration of unmanned aircraft into the [national airspace] is a significant challenge,鈥� the FAA notes in the conclusion of its of civilian drone use.

Of course, civilians already fly drones in America. They鈥檙e used for everything from land-use planning to photography. Drone development is a big industry. Some 50 companies are working on 150 systems right now. Civilian UAV sales may hit $6 billion by 2016.

But these are generally one-time uses. Many are subject to restrictions, such as a requirement that operators maintain sight of the UAV. Amazon wants something much larger, a sort of UAV cargo airline across the United States.

Currently, the FAA is supposed to finalize drone regulations by 2015. It has already missed some deadlines, however, and the agency may not meet that goal. Furthermore, look at the fine print in the FAA road map, and it鈥檚 apparent that Amazon鈥檚 plan probably falls into the FAA鈥欌�檚 long-term outlook 鈥� meaning it couldn鈥檛 gain approval until 2022 or 2026.

The FAA鈥檚 concept list of drone uses doesn鈥檛 include civilian package delivery, for one thing. (It does contain cargo carriage, but that鈥檚 for delivery from one airport to another.)

A perusal of the road map shows that the FAA intends to develop security vetting procedures for UAV personnel. That means Amazon's ground-based UAV pilots would have to undergo some Fed-approved training. The FAA also is working on airworthiness rules. In others words, it intends to provide guidelines for the design and testing of robust UAV structures, as it does now for manned aircraft. That means the nifty Amazon drone seen buzzing on 鈥�60 Minutes鈥� might have to reengineered.

And the FAA intends for civilian UAVs to include sense-and-avoid technology to ensure they don鈥檛 hit airliners or one another. That鈥檚 something that won鈥檛 be perfected for years, the agency acknowledges.

鈥淎lthough research will continue, fully certified [UAV] collision avoidance solutions may not be feasible until the long-term and are deemed to be a necessary component for full [UAV national airspace] integration,鈥� the FAA road map says.

The bottom line here is that Amazon Prime Air might not be operational until Miley Cyrus is playing on oldies radio. That鈥檚 led some critics to charge that unveiling the plan on 鈥�60 Minutes鈥� at the beginning of the holiday shopping season was really a well-planned publicity stunt.

鈥淸I]t鈥檚 all hot air and baloney,鈥� of the Guardian.