海角大神

Martin O鈥橫alley made it fairly obvious over the weekend that he鈥檚 running for president, or at least pretty darn close to deciding in favor.

Here鈥檚 what the Democratic governor of Maryland told reporters at the National Governors Association meeting in Milwaukee, according to The Washington Post: 鈥淏y the end of this year, I think we鈥檙e on course to have a body of work that lays the framework of a candidacy for 2016.鈥�

Governor O鈥橫alley is youthful but not too young (now in his 50s), personable, and lauded for his executive skills, both as mayor of Baltimore and now a two-term governor. Still, his comment was a bit surprising. Most people hide their ambition a little more effectively this early in the cycle. But O鈥橫alley is nothing if not ambitious. And the 2016 campaign is already well under way, especially on the Republican side.

And it may well be that O鈥橫alley needs to be this open about his intentions to garner media attention and create buzz amid all the Hillary-mania. So what about that, anyway? If former Secretary of State Hillary Rodham Clinton is going to run, and the betting inside the Beltway is that she will, then why should anyone else even bother?

Two reasons: First, O鈥橫alley could wind up being her running mate. Presidential nominees often select someone who has been tested on the national stage during the primaries 鈥� especially the debates 鈥� as their No. 2. Barack Obama picked Joe Biden. John Kerry picked John Edwards. Ronald Reagan picked George H.W. Bush.

If Ms. Clinton is the Democratic nominee in 2016, then it would make sense for her to select a white guy as her running mate. The unofficial rule in putting together a ticket is that you break only one glass ceiling at a time. (That鈥檚 one possible reason President Obama didn鈥檛 put Clinton on the ticket with him in 2008, among many.) Clinton would be the first female nominee for a major party, so putting a fresh-faced white-male governor on the ticket makes sense.

Clinton would be on the older end as a nominee, so going for a youngish running mate also makes sense. It introduces a new generation of Democratic leadership to the country.

The second reason for O鈥橫alley to run against Clinton is that she might stumble. There are no guarantees in politics, as she discovered when she ran the first time, in 2007-08. When she announced her first campaign, she was the odds-on favorite. Then upstart Obama came along and outdid her with his charisma and superior campaign strategy.

Nobody is perfect on the stump, and Clinton could make a campaign-ending mistake. Or something could come out about her tenure at the State Department 鈥� Benghazi, anyone? 鈥� or in the Senate or as first lady.

Clinton isn鈥檛 likely to let us know her intentions by the end of the year. Given her universal name recognition and fundraising power, she doesn鈥檛 need to. She can wait at least until the beginning of 2015. So under O鈥橫alley鈥檚 timeline, he will effectively announce, or close to it, before he knows what Clinton is doing.

In announcing early, O鈥橫alley could also be hedging his bets that Clinton might not run. And in that event, the field would be wide open.聽