海角大神

The deep-blue state of Maryland isn鈥檛 the home to much presidential election drama. This year, however, the Old Line State could help snap gay marriage's 14-year losing streak at the ballot box.

Since 1998, 31 states have considered ballot initiatives about gay marriage, and all 31 have voted against it. But when Gov. Martin O鈥橫alley (D) signed a bill in March to legalize gay marriage, conservative lawmakers put the law before voters as a popular referendum Nov. 6 in a bid to stop it. If voters support the law 鈥� as polls suggest they will 鈥� the referendum could mark the first time in US history that state voters have approved same-sex marriage.

While six states and the District of Columbia have legalized gay marriage, they have done so through legislation or court order. None have been approved by voters.

Come Election Day, Maryland could join two other states as the first to reverse this trend. Like Maryland, Washington State is holding a referendum on an already-passed law legalizing gay marriage. Polls show it ahead. A Maine initiative would permit gay marriages without prior legislative action. Polls show pro-gay marriage forces ahead there, too.

In Minnesota, voters will decide whether to outlaw gay marriage while allowing civil unions. Polls show a tight contest.

A victory in any one of those states would be historic 鈥� but because Maryland鈥檚 polls close alongside Maine鈥檚, those two states have a chance to slide into the history books a little ahead of their western counterparts.

That is, if tightening polls in Maryland don鈥檛 replicate something advocates on both sides know all too well: Public opinion on marriage equality is notoriously difficult to pin down.

鈥淪ome [polls] are better than others, but they certainly can鈥檛 be taken at face value for the way that people are going to vote,鈥� says Brian Brown, the president of the National Organization for Marriage, which is one of the major funders of the Maryland opposition to the ballot question.

One big swing group for Question 6, as it's called, is the African-American vote 鈥� nearly guaranteed Democratic voters who are socially conservative. Recent polls have shown backsliding support for Question 6 among African-Americans 鈥� who make up between a quarter and a third of the electorate 鈥� from about 6 in 10 to roughly evenly divided.

That鈥檚 despite the endorsement of gay marriage from President Obama, the NAACP, and black pastors including the Rev. Delman Coates of Mt. Ennon Baptist Church in Clinton, Md.

鈥淭his is about protecting everyone equally under the law,鈥� Mr. Coates says. 鈥淭his isn鈥檛 about your personal views about homosexuality, or your view on this or that Bible verse.鈥�

Coates believes the question will pass, and that it will give hope to other states with large African-American communities to try to explain the issue of gay marriage through civil rights.

If Maryland voters back Question 6, it could be historic for second reason, as well: Maryland would join Washington, D.C., as the southernmost frontier of same-sex marriage.

鈥淔or marriage equality to pass by popular vote for the first time would be a game-changer,鈥� says Kevin Nix, a spokesman for Marylanders for Marriage Equality. 鈥淣ot only for the issue but for Maryland in particular because it would be the first state below the Mason-Dixon Line that has marriage equality.鈥�

While Mr. Brown of the National Organization for Marriage believes gay-marriage opponents will prevail, he argues that even they don't, the vote is not a game changer.

鈥淚f it is going to happen, we still have the overwhelming reality that the overwhelming majority of states have voted to鈥� defeat same-sex marriage, he says. 鈥淎ny state that would vote to do it would be an extreme outlier... That鈥檚 not the whole battle.鈥�

But the battle elsewhere in the nation may pivot on people like state Sen. James Brochin. A conservative white Democrat from the wealthy Baltimore exurb of Towson, he initially said he would vote against gay marriage on the grounds that marriage should be between a man and a woman.

But through the informal lobbying of gay friends 鈥� like folks he worked with at the snack bar at his daughter鈥檚 swim meets 鈥� a few particularly revelatory legislative hearings in Annapolis, and the inability to get his preferred legislation allowing civil unions instead of same-sex marriages passed, he gave the marriage-equality bill his support.

鈥淚鈥檓 listening to the opposition, and they鈥檙e not talking about the word marriage, they鈥檙e talking about, 鈥楪ay people are pedophiles,鈥� 鈥� Senator Brochin says. 鈥淚 mean, are you kidding me? This is the side I鈥檓 going to be on? This is the legacy I鈥檓 going to have? They don鈥檛 want them to have the same rights 鈥� I want them to have the same rights.鈥�