As Obama and Romney ready for second debate, where do polls stand?
As President Obama and GOP presidential nominee Mitt Romney ready for their second debate Tuesday night on Long Island, it鈥檚 clear that the electoral race has shifted, with Mr. Romney probably in the lead by a smidgen. The question now is whether Romney鈥檚 gains are due to a bounce from his strong first debate performance, which may recede, or whether they reflect a fundamental change in relative positions.
With polls pouring out every day now, it鈥檚 hard to keep track of what鈥檚 going on. The best approach may be to tune out individual releases and just look at the trend lines of the averages of major surveys.
Of these, the on Tuesday morning had Romney up by three-tenths of a percentage point, 47.4 to 47.1 percent. puts Romney ahead by 1.1 percentage points, 48.4 to 47.3 percent. 聽The has Mr. Obama in the lead by 0.9 percentage points, 47.4 to 46.5 percent.
All these averages follow a different mix of polls and use different methodologies. We鈥檒l go with the best of three and say it鈥檚 likely that Romney has overtaken Obama since the Denver debate.
If the election were held today, Obama might still have an edge because he鈥檚 clinging to leads in some important swing states. That鈥檚 why polling analyst Nate Silver鈥檚 鈥淣ow-cast,鈥� which judges the outcome day by day, says that Obama would win 284 electoral votes (and reelection) to Romney鈥檚 253 if Oct. 15 were Election Day.
But Obama鈥檚 battleground edge has shrunk as well. Prior to the first debate, the president was ahead in all states rated as tossups by RealClearPolitics, except North Carolina. Since then, Romney has moved ahead in Colorado, where an average of polls shows him up by 0.6 percentage points, and Florida, where he鈥檚 up by 2.5 percentage points, . Romney鈥檚 lead in North Carolina has grown to 4.7 percentage points.
Tuesday night鈥檚 debate might matter most in Virginia and New Hampshire, two battleground states where Obama鈥檚 lead is slim and has been shrinking, writes RCP political analyst Erin McPike in an interesting state-by-state breakdown of the race.
鈥淚f Romney turns in another solid debate performance and chips away further at the president鈥檚 support in those two states, he could add Virginia鈥檚 13 electoral votes and New Hampshire鈥檚 four ... bringing him to 261,鈥� .
That would put the Massachusetts ex-governor on the cusp of the 270 electoral votes needed for victory. He could close that gap by winning Nevada, where Obama leads by just 1.6 percentage points, and Wisconsin, where Obama now is up by 2.3 points.
In that scenario, Romney wins without having to take Ohio, a key swing state in which Obama has been solid 鈥� perhaps due to the US bailout of auto firms, which have a big presence in the Buckeye State.
None of this map plotting would matter if Romney鈥檚 recent gains are solely a reflection of voter judgment that he beat Obama in Denver鈥檚 word-joust. Such a bounce could be soft and easily reversed by stronger Obama showings in the two remaining debates. After all, during the GOP primary season, debates often drove polls up or down for particular candidates. Remember when Herman Cain was the front-runner?
But as political analyst on his Plain Blog About Politics, Romney鈥檚 gains in the averages of major polls actually began well before the first debate. It鈥檚 possible that what we鈥檙e seeing is the receding of a longer-term Obama bounce caused by a successful convention and Romney鈥檚 鈥�47 percent鈥� comments, plus a smaller pro-Romney debate upsurge.
Got that? In other words, we鈥檙e almost back to where we were prior to the conventions, when Obama had a slim national lead in the polls. If Romney鈥檚 postdebate bounce recedes, Obama should settle back in with a lead of one to three percentage points, Mr. Bernstein writes.
However, conservatives don鈥檛 think Romney鈥檚 gains are a 鈥渂ounce,鈥� a word implying that what goes up comes down. As Tuesday on her Right Turn blog at The Washington Post, the GOP thinks Romney has changed minds among independent voters and now needs to close the sale with further strong debate performances.
Romney 鈥渋s well-positioned to cement the initial impression and keep the swing-state electorate moving in his direction,鈥� writes Ms. Rubin.
